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Ugh I've been following every AlphaGo discussion I can find, and it's always the same debate about what the significance of it is. I just want to make this fina
by Houshalter 11y ago
Ugh I've been following every AlphaGo discussion I can find, and it's always the same debate about what the significance of it is. I just want to make this final comment.
There is no significance to AlphaGo - to people paying attention to AI research. The methods aren't incredibly novel, the idea that CNNs could make very good value approximators isn't new, etc. I predicted computers would be beating expert Go players by the end of 2015, and was actually really disappointed when I was wrong. Turns out I wasn't, but it had just been kept secret.
However AlphaGo's victory is significant to the general public and the skeptics. It's a sign of the rapid progress being made in AI over the last few years. Rapid progress that shows no sign of halting.
Some of the people I spoke to about my Go prediction thought that it might be possible, but was probably too hard a domain. Hopefully those people will update their beliefs and be a little more optimistic about NNs, and AI in general. They are extremely powerful tools that we are just figuring out how to use. Go will hardly be the last domain they succeed at.
- haberman 11y agoSo there is no significance to AlphaGo, besides the fact that it defied your colleagues' expectations about whether these techniques would work in this domain.
- empath75 11y agoI'd like people to make some predictions about what an ai will not be able to do in the next 10 years.
- noelsusman 11y agoI'll go ahead and predict that we won't have human-level artificial intelligence within 10 years. As in you could throw it literally any task and it would handle it as well as a human and get better at it as fast as a human.
- stevetrewick 11y agoWhich human?
- rimantas 11y agoAs it was said on BBC today: you can go into any kitchen and make yourself a cup of tea. Good luck with AI doing that.
- versteegen 11y agoRelevant: poll on "Will the "silver" Turing Test be passed by 2026?" http://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/ http://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/
- Retric 11y agoPredict the DOW closing value to within 1 point, 1 day ahead, at 50/50 accuracy. Predict weather 2 weeks out to within 1 degree at 50/50 accuracy. Do face recognition well enough to identify people from surveillance videos. (from the set off all known criminals with 50/50 accuracy including false positives and false negatives.) Program a computer well enough to replace a Jr developer. Write a book good enough to become popular on its own merits. Replace in person translators for real time language X to Y langue translation at the UN.
- ThomPete 11y agoAll these might simply be for the lack of access to data not for the ability to predict with the data though.
- euyyn 11y ago> I predicted computers would be beating expert Go players by the end of 2015 And who are you? Predictions are a dime a dozen; what gives any relevance to yours?
- Houshalter 11y agoThe point is that anyone could have predicted it. There were papers being published showing very promising results on Go in 2014.
- euyyn 11y agoAnyone could have predicted as in "take a year out their asses and write it down", sure. A dime a dozen. Predicted as in actually know what they're talking about and have some sort of reasoning or data backing that prediction? Nah.
- Houshalter 11y agoNo, there were papers published in 2014 showing that CNNs could predict the moves of expert Go players 55% of the time. That was an extremely remarkable, result. It's not a huge leap to go from that, to using it as move predictor as the search heuristic in a game tree searching algorithm.