3 ms·
> The point is that any theory made after events are observed cannot use the events it is explaining as evidence that it is correct. That's complete nonsense.
by throwaway_xx9 11y ago
> The point is that any theory made after events are observed cannot use the events it is explaining as evidence that it is correct.
That's complete nonsense. Theories are almost always made after collecting observations.
They may be confirmed using future observations, or by statistical analysis, however.
- refurb 11y agoHe's right. It's the same reason why the FDA forces you to state your hypothesis prior to running a clinical trial. If you just run a trial then it's pretty easy to cherry-pick the data that supports your claim. There is nothing wrong with looking back to see if a variable explains an observation. However, the true test of the hypothesis is predicting future events.
- eru 11y agoThey don't have to be future. They just have to be unknown when the hypothesis is formulated or selected. Because we can't trust people, future is a safe and sufficient choice. It's not necessary. (That's why machine learning people use hold-out sets.)