6 ms·

My initial thoughts about self-driving cars was that they would be less bad for the environment, thanks to more people being able to share one car - but the mor

My initial thoughts about self-driving cars was that they would be less bad for the environment, thanks to more people being able to share one car - but the more likely scenario will be opposite: convoys of cars with one sleeping person in each.

vonmoltke 11y ago
As I mentioned in a previous thread some time ago, where does this notion of self-driving cars suddenly meaning shared cars come from? To some people these things seem to be joined at the hip.
- maxerickson 11y ago
  Because the self driving aspect enables dispatch. Prompting a human that is also driving to make a 3 block detour is pretty hard to do safely. Prompting a passenger to see if they will take a 3 block detour to save cost is not so hard to do safely. The self driving vehicles would also be reporting available ride shares to people looking to make trips.
  - Splines 11y ago
    I interpret "car sharing" as more about keeping utilization up. When you're at work, the car you used to get to work will be off doing something else during the day. When you want to go back home, it could be a completely different car. You'd pay a subscription for a certain level of car service (time responsiveness, cargo capacity, comfort level). Maybe you'd get a discount for scheduling your commute a week in advance. The # of cars on the road might be the same, but the amount of resources we would consume as a society would be lower. Or maybe it would be the same, but the flexible model would allow scenarios that weren't previously possible (e.g., your child could "drive" to school without you).
- teod 11y ago
  To me, it seems like the incentives to own a car may not be so great once self-driving taxis are available, especially in the city. No need to worry about parking, insurance, maintainence, or gas.
  - chc 11y ago
    Those features are already present in human-driven taxis.
- turtlebits 11y ago
  Once cars are autonomous, it makes it drastically simpler to carpool/rideshare or even pick up and drop off riders that may share the same or partial route as you. Also if your car is able to drop you off, it can be a shared resource when you don't need it.
  - vonmoltke 11y ago
    I want to reply to all three of you (turtlebits, maxerickson, teod) with basically the same points. I'll put it here because yours is currently the top-ranked reply, but I am going to address all three of you. > Once cars are autonomous, it makes it drastically simpler to carpool/rideshare or even pick up and drop off riders that may share the same or partial route as you. I don't see how it is drastically simpler. Yes the logistics would be easier. There still needs to be an infrastructure for identification of passengers and dispatch of vehicles that is completely independent of what is driving the vehicles themselves. > Also if your car is able to drop you off, it can be a shared resource when you don't need it. Assuming I want my car shuttling other people around, particularly when I'm not in it. > Prompting a human that is also driving to make a 3 block detour is pretty hard to do safely. Prompting a passenger to see if they will take a 3 block detour to save cost is not so hard to do safely. True, but the bigger issue is, will the current occupant of the vehicle ever say yes? > The self driving vehicles would also be reporting available ride shares to people looking to make trips. Somebody could already do this with human-driven cars. > To me, it seems like the incentives to own a car may not be so great once self-driving taxis are available, especially in the city. No need to worry about parking, insurance, maintainence, or gas. How is this different than human-driven cars? Do you really think cabbie salary is enough of a driver in the pricing of taxis now that shared car services will suddenly become attractive once they are eliminated? I pretty much agree with y'all on the technical barriers being overcome, but I think y'all and others seriously underestimate the sociological barriers that would need to be overcome to make this a reality on a large scale. Maybe I don't want to pick up random strangers on my way to work. Maybe I don't want to add five minutes to my commute to pick someone else up. Maybe I don't want other people in my car. The reason these shared car services don't really exist today has little to do with who or what is actually driving the vehicles and quite a bit to do with the nature of our society. You can't change that by just building a fleet of autonomous, on-demand cars.
thedevil 11y ago
Another possibility is that if self-driving taxis take over, cars might get a lot smaller. Most of the space in your car is wasted most of the time and is only there for the occasional time that you need it. Although, I'm not arguing whether self-driving cars will be a net good or bad from an environmental standpoint, I'm not sure.

vonmoltke 11y ago

As I mentioned in a previous thread some time ago, where does this notion of self-driving cars suddenly meaning shared cars come from? To some people these things seem to be joined at the hip.

maxerickson 11y ago
Because the self driving aspect enables dispatch. Prompting a human that is also driving to make a 3 block detour is pretty hard to do safely. Prompting a passenger to see if they will take a 3 block detour to save cost is not so hard to do safely. The self driving vehicles would also be reporting available ride shares to people looking to make trips.
- Splines 11y ago
  I interpret "car sharing" as more about keeping utilization up. When you're at work, the car you used to get to work will be off doing something else during the day. When you want to go back home, it could be a completely different car. You'd pay a subscription for a certain level of car service (time responsiveness, cargo capacity, comfort level). Maybe you'd get a discount for scheduling your commute a week in advance. The # of cars on the road might be the same, but the amount of resources we would consume as a society would be lower. Or maybe it would be the same, but the flexible model would allow scenarios that weren't previously possible (e.g., your child could "drive" to school without you).
teod 11y ago
To me, it seems like the incentives to own a car may not be so great once self-driving taxis are available, especially in the city. No need to worry about parking, insurance, maintainence, or gas.
- chc 11y ago
  Those features are already present in human-driven taxis.
turtlebits 11y ago
Once cars are autonomous, it makes it drastically simpler to carpool/rideshare or even pick up and drop off riders that may share the same or partial route as you. Also if your car is able to drop you off, it can be a shared resource when you don't need it.
- vonmoltke 11y ago
  I want to reply to all three of you (turtlebits, maxerickson, teod) with basically the same points. I'll put it here because yours is currently the top-ranked reply, but I am going to address all three of you. > Once cars are autonomous, it makes it drastically simpler to carpool/rideshare or even pick up and drop off riders that may share the same or partial route as you. I don't see how it is drastically simpler. Yes the logistics would be easier. There still needs to be an infrastructure for identification of passengers and dispatch of vehicles that is completely independent of what is driving the vehicles themselves. > Also if your car is able to drop you off, it can be a shared resource when you don't need it. Assuming I want my car shuttling other people around, particularly when I'm not in it. > Prompting a human that is also driving to make a 3 block detour is pretty hard to do safely. Prompting a passenger to see if they will take a 3 block detour to save cost is not so hard to do safely. True, but the bigger issue is, will the current occupant of the vehicle ever say yes? > The self driving vehicles would also be reporting available ride shares to people looking to make trips. Somebody could already do this with human-driven cars. > To me, it seems like the incentives to own a car may not be so great once self-driving taxis are available, especially in the city. No need to worry about parking, insurance, maintainence, or gas. How is this different than human-driven cars? Do you really think cabbie salary is enough of a driver in the pricing of taxis now that shared car services will suddenly become attractive once they are eliminated? I pretty much agree with y'all on the technical barriers being overcome, but I think y'all and others seriously underestimate the sociological barriers that would need to be overcome to make this a reality on a large scale. Maybe I don't want to pick up random strangers on my way to work. Maybe I don't want to add five minutes to my commute to pick someone else up. Maybe I don't want other people in my car. The reason these shared car services don't really exist today has little to do with who or what is actually driving the vehicles and quite a bit to do with the nature of our society. You can't change that by just building a fleet of autonomous, on-demand cars.

thedevil 11y ago

Another possibility is that if self-driving taxis take over, cars might get a lot smaller. Most of the space in your car is wasted most of the time and is only there for the occasional time that you need it. Although, I'm not arguing whether self-driving cars will be a net good or bad from an environmental standpoint, I'm not sure.