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A few tens of febuaries is enough to get an estimate of the standard deviation, no? And also, don't we have ice core samples going back thousands of years? Thi
by mathgenius 11y ago
A few tens of febuaries is enough to get an estimate of the standard deviation, no?
And also, don't we have ice core samples going back thousands of years? This should indicate more about the occurrence of large scale variations in temperature.
I'm not going to argue minutea because I don't have a spare life that I can devote to climate science. I just assume they are getting it right.
- ekianjo 11y ago> A few tens of febuaries is enough to get an estimate of the standard deviation, no? Yes, but even if this point is a significant outlier, there is no telling that it's not random variation (p-values only talk about probabilities, they never prove anything not imply causal relationships) and on top of that you don't have a model to predict the future. Forecasts out of existing data values/limits are usually extremely unreliable.