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I question the notion that Greece would collapse if not bailed out; and I question even more strongly, the notion that if Greece did collapse, the Dutch economy
by RobGR 17y ago
I question the notion that Greece would collapse if not bailed out; and I question even more strongly, the notion that if Greece did collapse, the Dutch economy would go "along with it" as you say.
I think it is a bit of fear-mongering thrown about to get people to acquiese in massive, questionable government backed financial schemes. It reminds me of George W. Bush asserting "if we don't pass this bill, the whole sucker could go down" or the member of Congress who claimed that if the 700 Billion dollar bailout was not passed, "your ATM machine will not work Tuesday morning."
Let's think through the worse case senario. The Greek government defaults on it's debt, and a variety of people around the world discover that the Greek bonds they hold are worthless. Some investors will have bought funds that are mixtures of all the EU country's debt, and those investors may dump those funds, thus making it expensive for the Dutch government to borrow money for a time - say, a year. Exchange rates will also shift, but that always brings good with bad no matter which direction -- likely the Euro will drop, making it easier for other people to buy Dutch products, and helping Dutch exporters but making it more expensive for you to buy imports.
Perhaps you could take some advantage of the situation by being stingy and saving money, not buying imports, and instead buying high-yeild Dutch bonds, for a year or two. But even if you didn't, by three to five years from now the difference in your personal wealth would be tiny.
A collapse of the market in Greek bonds does not break dikes or light fires in Holland. No "real" wealth will be destroyed in your country.
Now let's consider what happens if you bail out the Greek government, and by extension, whatever unlucky stooges Goldman Sachs saddled with those bonds. The Euro will see some inflation, dropping its value, but the effect is more long term than the "collapse" senario. Goldman will hawk the bonds of Spain, Italy, Portugal, and any other shaky government as having an implicit backing of the hard work of the honest Dutch, and those goverments will borrow more because of it.
So I don't agree with your argument of "comparitive hardship" to 11 million Greeks vs. "economic misery" to 328 Europeans.
In some ways, this is just a preparation for what will happen in the US with the State of California, whose default will be larger than Greece's. Is it in the best interests of the whole USA to assume the obligations that California undertook ? If California defaulted on it's bonds, it would surely cause some financial turmoil and hardship, but it's not clear that financial turmoil and hardship would be avoided by guaranteeing their bonds. Backing those bonds decreases the already shaky credit of the US as a whole. On the other hand, states that need to borrow may not be able to for a period, and many retirement plans and pension funds will suddenly be shrunk.
I'm not in favor of either bailout. The cost is a general undermining of the world financial system as a whole, and I don't think you will get the short term good effects that are hoped for.
- anamax 17y ago> Backing those bonds decreases the already shaky credit of the US as a whole. And, it tells CA that it can go on a binge and get someone else to pick up the tab. CA does stupid things because there's no negative consequences to doing stupid things. CA would be better off if it didn't do such things. And, if it does, the rest of the world would be better off if such things were funded by volunteers. The best case is for CA is to wipe out bond holders and be forced to live within its means. The next best case is for CA to wipe out bond holders and then find a new group of suckers to voluntarily fund the next round of crazy. The worst case is for CA to get bailed out by taxpayers.
- mtts 17y agoYou're forgetting that if the Euro slides as a result of Greek mismanagement, oil, which is paid in dollars, becomes more expensive, resulting in a lowering of living standards throughout the European union.
- RobGR 17y agoBut if the Euro slides, the Arabs selling the oil will then be able to buy more EU products. In the end, it will all balance out - do you think the failure of the Greek national government to honor it's honds will cause a drop in demand for any of the products of the Netherlands, such as electrical parts or refined petroleum products ? Of course, if one of the main products of the Netherlands (or Europe, or the United States) is itself bonds, similar to how some small governments fund themselves by selling collectors stamps, then you might be screwed by a general fall in demand for bonds. However that situation is unlikely to remedied by selling more bonds to buy back the Greek bonds.