3 ms·
Could some climatologist say does this imply something specific based on existing models and simulations or does it mean we are in an unknown territory?
by fsloth 11y ago
Could some climatologist say does this imply something specific based on existing models and simulations or does it mean we are in an unknown territory?
- anon1385 11y agoI'm not a climatologist but I don't think it puts us in unknown territory. You have to consider what the known influences on the system (e.g. volcanic eruptions, solar variation) have been doing and what the known internal cycles (e.g. el nino) have been doing When you do that then you find Feb was well above the long term trend line, but not by a staggering amount (i.e. it's similar to things we have seen before): https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/surprise-but-not-shock/ https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/03/13/surprise-but-not-sho... It does confirm that there was never any 'pause', it was just natural short term cycles (la nina) masking the long term trend. We will likely be above trend for a bit due to el nino, as happened in 1997/1998. Longer term it will average out. (Average out to a steady increase in temperature that is).