To be fair, The Black Swan doesn't talk about a black swan being rare. The point is that until black swans were discovered in Australia, everyone in the (civili

To be fair, The Black Swan doesn't talk about a black swan being rare. The point is that until black swans were discovered in Australia, everyone in the (civilized) world were completely convinced that swans could only be white. Black swans weren't rare, they were inconceivable because it was so far outside expectations that no one considered even the remote possibility of non-white swans. The Black Swan doesn't talk about rare events, it talks about the danger of not considering that which is so highly improbable as to seem ridiculous, such as the possibility of non-white swans. In other words, the frequency of black swans wasn't 1 in 1 million swans pre-discovery of Australia, it was zero. I'm sure you know all of this but if you haven't read the book I do think it is worth your time.