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The part about exit values is a bit misleading. You don't include anything about liquidity preference or anything else that would be taken off the top before co
by p4wnc6 11y ago
The part about exit values is a bit misleading. You don't include anything about liquidity preference or anything else that would be taken off the top before common shares are bought out.
And if shares are diluted or liquidity preference is added later after some fundraising, do you always go back and share all of the specifics of all of that with all employees? Kudos if you do, but if not it kinda renders the initial transparency less impressive or useful.
I've generally found the advice here [0] to be a much better proxy for hypothetical exit calculations.
One other thought: isn't it odd that you're willing to provide a distribution over salaries to argue for the salary you offered, but you just pull a number out of thin air for the possible exit?
Why not provide a distribution on exit values (and evidence for why you believe it), and then show the expected value along with risk, under that distribution.
At the very least, this way if your distribution over exit values isn't a severe power law drop off with uncomfortably low expected value, the candidate knows you're blowing smoke and can walk away.
Instead, you deny the premise that an expected value calculation is useful towards the end. Wow, that is absolutely walk-away-immediately stuff right there. "The distribution over outcomes is unknown..." Right, so of course you should make zero attempt to gather data about it and model it. That's one of the most bananas things I've ever seen, and it's right in the offer letter!
Picking a number like 77MM is almost like a dirty in-app purchase priming trick or something. (And no, it's not the least bit redeeming to add a tiny line at the bottom of the chart stating that it's just an example and not a forecast.)
If you personally, actually believe no one should engage in an expected value calculation regarding their start-up compensation package, then why not simply omit any slides about what the options will be worth? The 77MM thing is a red herring, and surely you would agree that in the absence of enough evidence to put together a crude approximate distribution, it can hardly been viewed as a better alternative to just make shit up out of thin air ...
Pointing out the 77MM example is basically saying "Hey, look at this number! It might not be related to your shares or your life at all, but look at it anyway!" On the other hand, if you believe that 77MM is "reasonable" in some sense, well then you are absolutely talking about some approximate notion of a prior distribution on your exit value.
[0] http://www.danshapiro.com/blog/2010/11/how-much-are-startup-options-worth/ http://www.danshapiro.com/blog/2010/11/how-much-are-startup-...
- jsprogrammer 11y agoThe salary distribution isn't even sourced. It was probably pulled from a source like salary.com which provides curves that look nearly identical to the one shown in the offer letter. I don't think there are similar sources for more complex distributions (option payouts over all valuations). It looks like the exit chart is designed to show what happens on the lower end of valuations (ie. as a lowly employee you don't participate). Also note that the X axis is serverely distorted: it ranges from $0-$100,000,000, but half the space is taken up by a blow up of a range of just $7,000,000! Further still, the information on that page is not consistent. The chart refers to $2.35 options, but you are apparently granted $2.38 options. The option payout calculator also doesn't appear to account for your costs to exercise your options either?
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- phamilton 11y agoLiquidity preference is captured in the graph. That's the first dotted line as well as the flat section in the middle.
- p4wnc6 11y agoWhat's in the graph has only a nebulous connection to the example exit calculation. Those terms can change, and this still doesn't give any information on whether there is a preference multiplier or capped/uncapped participation. There are also significant issues with retention / acquihire bonuses paid out of the acquisition price, severance agreements for employees who negotiate that they don't have to stick around, carveouts, and other forms of discretionary compensation -- none of which is addressed by either the chart or the page on the phantom 77MM exit number. The point is that the current statement "only preferred shareholders are paid for exits below 25.7 MM" is not enough to actually capture the effect of preference and participation upon larger exits. If anything, it makes it even more confusing.
- FireBeyond 11y ago"One other thought: isn't it odd that you're willing to provide a distribution over salaries to argue for the salary you offered, but you just pull a number out of thin air for the possible exit? Why not provide a distribution on exit values (and evidence for why you believe it), and then show the expected value along with risk, under that distribution." I definitely see your point there, but that could also be seen as nudging dangerously close to "this is not an estimate of future returns... -wink, wink-". Better to be completely arbitrary in the number.