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> Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended. This was written in
by mchahn 11y ago
> Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended.
This was written in 1993 so 30 years makes it 2023. That may not be too far off.
- pmoriarty 11y agoFortune telling is a dangerous business. It would be interesting to know if Vernor Vinge stands by his prediction and still thinks that the end of the human era is only 7 years away.
- berntb 11y agoIn the introduction he specifies the extpected rise of superhuman AI intelligence to between 2005-2030. 14 years. He didn't expect the death/slowing of Moore's law, of course. But I don't think he really appreciated networked humans and our productivity either. They say that a human using a computer is a much superior chess player than just a human or just a computer, for instance. Otoh, we have all the work in parallelization -- and the continued lowering of price/transistor.
- simonh 11y agoTo be fair, he admits in the article that it might never happen. It was just an extrapolation based in a best guess of the computational complexity of the human brain and advances in computer technology. But it was still just an estimate. It was also based on an implicit assumption that once we had computers equivalent in power to the brain, that shortly afterwards we would have computers as intelligent as a human brain. But that assumes that programming an AI, or replicating the architecture of the brain, is essentially a trivial task given the required hardware. I think it's pretty clear now that this isn't true. We have very little idea how the brain really works. Even now estimates of the computational power of neurons or cortical columns vary enormously and are essentially guesses.
- mchahn 11y ago> replicating the architecture of the brain, is essentially a trivial task given the required hardware. I think it's pretty clear now that this isn't true. I think it will be like airplanes. We don't flap our wings but we fly.
- zardo 11y agoIn Rainbows End, written in 2006, he has a mid 2020s setting that seems to be on the cusp of the Singularity.