4 ms·

As with any automation, I understand it frees people up so they can do other productive things.

x0054 11y ago
But at some point we run out of productive things to do. And then what? Well, if we play our cards right, utopia. But what are the chances of that.
- stale2002 11y ago
  Why do you believe we are anywhere near that point? The same thing has been going on too the last 300 years due to industrialization, and things have turned out great. Why is THIS innovation going to be any different?
  - zanny 11y ago
    Workforce participation is at a 20 year low, considering the introduction of women into the workforce (who previously were a sleeper population of housekeepers and caretakers of children and elderly, which are now just general businesses) it is the lowest it has ever been. Likewise, the glut of minimum wage labor (and the gradual transition of most of the populace into low level service workers) and the lack of well paying careers outside tech going forward, with the propensity to attempt to automate all of it as soon as we are able, means it will keep getting worse. Point me to any use we will have in the next ten years for just a human being without any specialized training that will see significant enough gains to offset all these obviously continuing declines in workforce participation and available work. And even beyond that - how many tasks are we going to have for anyone but programmers? Is any industry going to grow rather than shrink? We are going to try our hardest to automate as much of every industry there is as we can. We won't eliminate your doctor in 10 years, but Watson and similar AI will replace 90% of his job, so that one doctor can handle 10 times as many patients as they do now. You might insist on a meatbag barista, but once a barista bot can sense your phone is nearby and makes your coffee for you before you even get to the counter just the way you like it at any location anywhere, most people will much prefer that convenience, and the cheaper coffee is just a nice perk. All professions are under threat - even programmers are being threatened, not the forward thinkers who found startups or push new ideas, but the cogs that work in big inefficient bureaucratic business software - it is often solving the same problem, that better languages, frameworks, and general solution are working to replace. Local IT admins have died an unsung death in the last five years as cloud infrastructure has taken over the industry, for example.
    - newjersey 11y ago
      Absolutely. There is a challenge here and we must acknowledge it. The challenge is how do we ensure people can sustain themselves? One part should be universal basic income so we can ensure people don't physically starve to death. There is a second part here as well though. People need to feel they are doing something worthwhile, that they are productive. Basic income won't solve that. My hope is as we reduce inefficiencies in the labor force, we will be able to put more towards infrastructure building and repairing as well as (like someone else said above) taking care of the very young, the very old, and those in need.
- conradk 11y ago
  Maybe we'll be able to take better care of the elderly. Or maybe we could spend more time educating children, with more teachers per class. Maybe we will have more time to teach people surfing. Maybe we will have more time to play cards, that may mean more need for coffee places to be open. The list goes on and on.
knieveltech 11y ago
Like draw unemployment. Edit: ok smart-asses. You're an OTR trucker. This has been your sole career for 25 years. You're laid off because self-driving trucks have eliminated demand for your profession. Now what? Get a job as a Social Media manager?
- zanny 11y ago
  When the unemployment runs out you don't have much of a choice.
  - knieveltech 11y ago
    It's true. Which brings to mind the follow up question: who's getting hired for a Social Media manager job? A college grad who's been navigating social media since they were 8 (or younger) or our 40-something trucker who's got six months to figure out what to do for a paycheck before the nasty phonecalls start coming in and the power gets turned off?
oconnore 11y ago
This is a very commonly repeated assumption, and it has been true in the past. I wonder if you and the other people repeating it really can't see any possible differences between washing machines or bulldozers, and humanoid machines that can walk, drive, win complex games, operate machinery in real time, and communicate with relatively nuanced written and spoken human languages.

x0054 11y ago

But at some point we run out of productive things to do. And then what? Well, if we play our cards right, utopia. But what are the chances of that.

stale2002 11y ago
Why do you believe we are anywhere near that point? The same thing has been going on too the last 300 years due to industrialization, and things have turned out great. Why is THIS innovation going to be any different?
- zanny 11y ago
  Workforce participation is at a 20 year low, considering the introduction of women into the workforce (who previously were a sleeper population of housekeepers and caretakers of children and elderly, which are now just general businesses) it is the lowest it has ever been. Likewise, the glut of minimum wage labor (and the gradual transition of most of the populace into low level service workers) and the lack of well paying careers outside tech going forward, with the propensity to attempt to automate all of it as soon as we are able, means it will keep getting worse. Point me to any use we will have in the next ten years for just a human being without any specialized training that will see significant enough gains to offset all these obviously continuing declines in workforce participation and available work. And even beyond that - how many tasks are we going to have for anyone but programmers? Is any industry going to grow rather than shrink? We are going to try our hardest to automate as much of every industry there is as we can. We won't eliminate your doctor in 10 years, but Watson and similar AI will replace 90% of his job, so that one doctor can handle 10 times as many patients as they do now. You might insist on a meatbag barista, but once a barista bot can sense your phone is nearby and makes your coffee for you before you even get to the counter just the way you like it at any location anywhere, most people will much prefer that convenience, and the cheaper coffee is just a nice perk. All professions are under threat - even programmers are being threatened, not the forward thinkers who found startups or push new ideas, but the cogs that work in big inefficient bureaucratic business software - it is often solving the same problem, that better languages, frameworks, and general solution are working to replace. Local IT admins have died an unsung death in the last five years as cloud infrastructure has taken over the industry, for example.
  - newjersey 11y ago
    Absolutely. There is a challenge here and we must acknowledge it. The challenge is how do we ensure people can sustain themselves? One part should be universal basic income so we can ensure people don't physically starve to death. There is a second part here as well though. People need to feel they are doing something worthwhile, that they are productive. Basic income won't solve that. My hope is as we reduce inefficiencies in the labor force, we will be able to put more towards infrastructure building and repairing as well as (like someone else said above) taking care of the very young, the very old, and those in need.
conradk 11y ago
Maybe we'll be able to take better care of the elderly. Or maybe we could spend more time educating children, with more teachers per class. Maybe we will have more time to teach people surfing. Maybe we will have more time to play cards, that may mean more need for coffee places to be open. The list goes on and on.

knieveltech 11y ago

Like draw unemployment. Edit: ok smart-asses. You're an OTR trucker. This has been your sole career for 25 years. You're laid off because self-driving trucks have eliminated demand for your profession. Now what? Get a job as a Social Media manager?

zanny 11y ago
When the unemployment runs out you don't have much of a choice.
- knieveltech 11y ago
  It's true. Which brings to mind the follow up question: who's getting hired for a Social Media manager job? A college grad who's been navigating social media since they were 8 (or younger) or our 40-something trucker who's got six months to figure out what to do for a paycheck before the nasty phonecalls start coming in and the power gets turned off?

oconnore 11y ago

This is a very commonly repeated assumption, and it has been true in the past. I wonder if you and the other people repeating it really can't see any possible differences between washing machines or bulldozers, and humanoid machines that can walk, drive, win complex games, operate machinery in real time, and communicate with relatively nuanced written and spoken human languages.