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> winning a board game it's a board game of military strategy. while it is severly limited by its rules of play relative to real life, it is not inconievable t

> winning a board game it's a board game of military strategy. while it is severly limited by its rules of play relative to real life, it is not inconievable that at some point it can dictate life and death as a capable military advisor. i think it is inevitable that we will utilize AI to make better predictions about our own future than weather forecasters. not in our lifetimes, of course.

asdfologist 11y ago
You could have said the same thing about chess when a program beat Kasparov about 20 years ago.
- leeoniya 11y ago
  the program that beat Kasparov did so using a brute-force search (full?) of a very limited search space. the reason that AI is different is because it doesnt need to (and cannot do so because the space is simply too large.) and 20 years ago is still well "within our lifetimes"
  - Retric 11y ago
    The program that beat Kasparov avoided a full breadth first search because it was fairly easy to decide if something was a bad move. So, it could generally pick from a fairly small number of moves when branching. What makes GO so much harder than chess is how hard it is to evaluate the board and decide if a move is good or bad.
    - daveguy 11y ago
      >What makes GO so much harder than chess is how hard it is to evaluate the board. And the 300-fold increase in branching factor.
      - Retric 11y ago
        First order branching factor is less important than you might think. You could setup a game of Nim: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nim https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nim with much higher branching factor vs Go, but because you can trivially separate a winning moves vs. losing moves those branches become irrelevant in Nim. AKA, if there are 2,000 winning moves then they are all equivalent.
  - cjbprime 11y ago
    Deep Blue wasn't a full brute-force search, and AlphaGo does perform plenty of brute-force searching too.
beachstartup 11y ago
how do you know that AI is not already advising the military on certain tactics? even an isolated system that analyzes data gathered by intelligence analysts, weather, radar, etc. and can suggest an a flight path and timeline for insertion or airstrike (especially in context with other operations in-theater) would basically be that, wouldn't it? i mean, i doubt it's guys on the DoD version of google maps plotting routes by hand. i have a hard time believing something like that isn't already in use to some extent, at least for special operations forces. how long until they just hook that into the drone fleet? what if they already have? autopilot on a modern fighter/bomber is basically the same thing, except there's a human in the loop, right? that would also go along nicely with the whole matrix / skynet plot that seems playing out in real life right now...

asdfologist 11y ago

You could have said the same thing about chess when a program beat Kasparov about 20 years ago.

leeoniya 11y ago
the program that beat Kasparov did so using a brute-force search (full?) of a very limited search space. the reason that AI is different is because it doesnt need to (and cannot do so because the space is simply too large.) and 20 years ago is still well "within our lifetimes"
- Retric 11y ago
  The program that beat Kasparov avoided a full breadth first search because it was fairly easy to decide if something was a bad move. So, it could generally pick from a fairly small number of moves when branching. What makes GO so much harder than chess is how hard it is to evaluate the board and decide if a move is good or bad.
  - daveguy 11y ago
    >What makes GO so much harder than chess is how hard it is to evaluate the board. And the 300-fold increase in branching factor.
    - Retric 11y ago
      First order branching factor is less important than you might think. You could setup a game of Nim: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nim https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nim with much higher branching factor vs Go, but because you can trivially separate a winning moves vs. losing moves those branches become irrelevant in Nim. AKA, if there are 2,000 winning moves then they are all equivalent.
- cjbprime 11y ago
  Deep Blue wasn't a full brute-force search, and AlphaGo does perform plenty of brute-force searching too.

beachstartup 11y ago

how do you know that AI is not already advising the military on certain tactics? even an isolated system that analyzes data gathered by intelligence analysts, weather, radar, etc. and can suggest an a flight path and timeline for insertion or airstrike (especially in context with other operations in-theater) would basically be that, wouldn't it? i mean, i doubt it's guys on the DoD version of google maps plotting routes by hand. i have a hard time believing something like that isn't already in use to some extent, at least for special operations forces. how long until they just hook that into the drone fleet? what if they already have? autopilot on a modern fighter/bomber is basically the same thing, except there's a human in the loop, right? that would also go along nicely with the whole matrix / skynet plot that seems playing out in real life right now...