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It would be interesting to know AlphaGo's estimated probability of winning as the game progressed; presumably we can see directly how worried it was at any give
by sdenton4 11y ago
It would be interesting to know AlphaGo's estimated probability of winning as the game progressed; presumably we can see directly how worried it was at any given point in the game. And thus get another sense of whether it ever really felt threatened by Sedol.
At this point, the match is won, but games 4 and 5 will commence. The question shifts from whether AlphaGo is better than humanity's best, to whether humanity can even have a chance of beating AlphaGo in a single game. And so far, it sounds like the answer is likely to be a resounding no.
- teraflop 11y agoThis isn't exactly what you were asking for, but here are some graphs from a different Go AI (Facebook's "darkforest") showing its estimated win probabilities: http://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/yuandong/20639694 http://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/yuandong/20639694
- sdenton4 11y agoNeat! My understanding is that AlphaGo is a stronger player, and so will likely have different estimations than the darkforest. But this is still really cool.
- daveguy 11y agoLooked up the strength (of dark forest) and it is claimed to be mid level amateur similar to crazystone and zen. So, the close measurements probably aren't too precise (when they are both around 50%), but the break away is probably about right.
- EGreg 11y agoCan anyone with Go knowledge comment on this?
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- andrew-lucker 11y agoFirst game, AlphaGo looked ambiguously weak until end of mid-game when it suddenly looked very strong. Second game, AlphaGo looked obviously strong throughout. So the probabilities are maybe not entirely wrong. For reference I am 4k rating, somewhat below darkforest(1d amateur) and so very very far from 9dan pros that AlphaGo is beating. Usually, pro matches are hard to understand but the excellent commentary and abundant community analysis helps greatly.