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This goes through historical examples of when machinery that automated jobs did not actually, over the long term, create job loss. His position is that that wi

This goes through historical examples of when machinery that automated jobs did not actually, over the long term, create job loss. His position is that that will be the case forever... but he doesn't actually prove it. I think his assumption is that since it's happened with steam engines and industrial looms, it'll happen again with robots and the internet?

kiba 17y ago
Well, who will the create robots that maintain the robots? AIs? Cyborgs? Now, robots can create all that stuff and maintain it all. Who will it sell it to? Even if robots can create all the stuff and then sell it, who is responsible for the entrepreneural function? AIs? Cyborgs? If robots take over every single jobs in the world? What will really happen? Moreover, who will own these robots? Maybe robots become cheap enough that everyone own bots? If we become machines, than what are robots? Robots and machinery aren't free lunch! The automation thread is just getting started, and we have not figured out how to automate entrepreneurship yet! And even if we do, we might already become machines!
- sophacles 17y ago
  Note: parent edited while i was replying. This is in response to the first 2 lines. (who will maintain the robots) Well, first it can probably be assumed that there will be a few standard robot types. These will be cheaper to replace than to repair. One of the standard robots will be a replacer robot which can swap out all the standard robot types (including other replacer robots). I presume that the few standard type robots can themselves be assembled by robots. Then it is simply a matter of having two (or more) robotic factories with the necessary stuff to create a robotic factory. Should one factory fail, a robotic robot will become the number 1 manufacturing priority. Now since the robotic robot factories would become ideal targets for sabatuers and terrorists and the like, a better step would be for each robot to know how to create a robotic robot facotory built in. Then even if both robotic robot factories fail, they can team up with the nearest robots to create a new robotic robot factory.
  - gills 17y ago
    Robot of the future == the ghost of java programs past? :p
roundsquare 17y ago
I think his assumption is that since it's happened with steam engines and industrial looms, it'll happen again with robots and the internet? Not really, he presents a general argument (though he uses a specific example). Basically: Automation --> Efficiency --> More Income Somewhere --> More Jobs You can argue that he is wrong, but he isn't relying solely on history to prove his point, he has a model in mind.

kiba 17y ago

Well, who will the create robots that maintain the robots? AIs? Cyborgs? Now, robots can create all that stuff and maintain it all. Who will it sell it to? Even if robots can create all the stuff and then sell it, who is responsible for the entrepreneural function? AIs? Cyborgs? If robots take over every single jobs in the world? What will really happen? Moreover, who will own these robots? Maybe robots become cheap enough that everyone own bots? If we become machines, than what are robots? Robots and machinery aren't free lunch! The automation thread is just getting started, and we have not figured out how to automate entrepreneurship yet! And even if we do, we might already become machines!

sophacles 17y ago
Note: parent edited while i was replying. This is in response to the first 2 lines. (who will maintain the robots) Well, first it can probably be assumed that there will be a few standard robot types. These will be cheaper to replace than to repair. One of the standard robots will be a replacer robot which can swap out all the standard robot types (including other replacer robots). I presume that the few standard type robots can themselves be assembled by robots. Then it is simply a matter of having two (or more) robotic factories with the necessary stuff to create a robotic factory. Should one factory fail, a robotic robot will become the number 1 manufacturing priority. Now since the robotic robot factories would become ideal targets for sabatuers and terrorists and the like, a better step would be for each robot to know how to create a robotic robot facotory built in. Then even if both robotic robot factories fail, they can team up with the nearest robots to create a new robotic robot factory.
- gills 17y ago
  Robot of the future == the ghost of java programs past? :p

roundsquare 17y ago

I think his assumption is that since it's happened with steam engines and industrial looms, it'll happen again with robots and the internet? Not really, he presents a general argument (though he uses a specific example). Basically: Automation --> Efficiency --> More Income Somewhere --> More Jobs You can argue that he is wrong, but he isn't relying solely on history to prove his point, he has a model in mind.