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I think technological progress is more like a logistic curve, with exponential-like growth at the beginning and then a leveling off. Look at technologies that h
by mtdewcmu 11y ago
I think technological progress is more like a logistic curve, with exponential-like growth at the beginning and then a leveling off. Look at technologies that have already had time to mature. The speed of airplanes grew tremendously while jet engines and wing shapes were undergoing heavy refinement, but then it leveled off and hasn't really budged in decades.
- gozur88 11y agoTechnologies can take leaps and bounds, too, though. If you view the modern computer as an evolution of the abacus the flat part of the curve was the first few thousand years. It's possible quantum computing, say, or neural nets will be leaps of that order. Or maybe not. It's impossible to predict true breakthroughs.
- mtdewcmu 11y ago>> If you view the modern computer as an evolution of the abacus I'm not sure what value that has for predicting the future. You could view the airplane as the evolution of the chariot. Or not. Does it make a difference?
- gozur88 11y agoIt does, because otherwise you think technology never changes quickly. My point was while it's true we're probably reaching the point of diminishing returns for silicon etched circuits, that's not the end of the line. I'd be surprised if we didn't have ubiquitous quantum computers in thirty years or so unless something even better came along.