3 ms·

Limitless exponential growth doesn't happen in the physical world, it happens on S-curves. Black phosphorus anyone?

by kumarski 11y ago

selimthegrim 11y ago
Care to elaborate?
- chipsy 11y ago
  The logistic function (or "S-curve") describes systems that expand first at exponential rates, then logarithmic ones. With respect to new technologies, it's been observed that adoption rates and most measurable improvements follow a logistic function. For example, people did not go from buying 1 car to buying 10 cars and then 100 cars - most of us hit saturation somewhere between 1 and 2, and stayed there. Similarly, the average speed of our cars did not increase at an increasing rate except in the earliest years of automotive technology; we have a "highway maximum" between 50 and 70 MPH, and a "technical maximum" in the high 200's range for production cars which do not rely on rockets or other not street-legal tricks (a quick search brings up the Hennessey Venom GT at 270.49 MPH). Likewise applied to fast moving vehicles as a whole, including supersonic aircraft and rockets, we've already brushed up against vehicle weight and power density limits that slow the rate of improvement in acceleration. Applied to the Moore's Law measures, that indicates we have a "endless sunset" period ahead of us where we'll still get more doublings of semiconductors, but they'll come increasingly slowly as more fundamental innovations become necessary to realize them. What we don't know is whether there is a logistic curve on technology as a whole. Belief in the Singularity is premised on this not being the case.
  - baobabaobab 11y ago
    >What we don't know is whether there is a logistic curve on technology as a whole. Belief in the Singularity is premised on this not being the case. That's a version of the Singularity to extreme even for Kurzweil. It's premised on technological growth not hitting the log portion of the curve before machine intelligence passes humans.
  - daveguy 11y ago
    I am of the strong opinion that most technological advancement that is mistaken for endless exponential improvement (eg Moore's law) actually follows a physical sigmoidal curve. I also agree that "the singularity" is a belief based proposition and I personally think it amounts to techno-woo. However, one interesting argument for continuation of technological advancement beyond what we might call "singularity" levels today. If technology maintains an exponential tragectory for another century or so through a few more breakthroughs then we would have some amazing tech. So, it is not required that tech advancement is exponential -- as long as we are still early enough in the sigmoidal curve that more exponential (and linear) advancement is still to come. With biotech, quantum and the algorithmic side of AI I think we still have quite a bit of advancing to do. That said, the singularity stuff is still ridiculous woo woo.
  - hyperpallium 11y ago
    Some of those are demand limited. People can't use 10 or 100 cars; street-legal limits aren't technology limits. When a technology limit is reached, but not a demand limit, interest and capital flow to other technologies for meeting that need, starting a new s-curve. eg peak oil prices lead to fracking. Whether it will be at Moore rates we don't know. But the possibility of far superior information technology has a proof by example: biological neurons.
  - selimthegrim 11y ago
    Oh sure I know about the logistic curve, I just wasn't sure about black phosphorus.
- kumarski 11y ago
  People in silicon valley who believe in AI/ML/Battery Technology/Solar/Wind Turbines/Space Travel/Fusion Energy throw around "exponentially accelerating progress" as a platitude so obviously true that it doesn't warrant questioning. (PC quote with my edit) "And despite Silicon Valley's ostensible belief in rationality and empirical evidence, we continue to assert this despite the data strongly suggesting that it just ain't so." - Patrick Collison The race to 7nm is expensive. I think the next big leap will be in Chip Design software which lives under a rock inside a ditch in an anachronism that is EDA - electronic design automation. There's got to be a better way that allows a chip designer to produce a high fidelity mixed signal analog chip at speed and scale without having to pay $25K+ for the software licenses and tooling.

Limitless exponential growth doesn't happen in the physical world, it happens on S-curves. Black phosphorus anyone?

selimthegrim 11y ago

Care to elaborate?

chipsy 11y ago
The logistic function (or "S-curve") describes systems that expand first at exponential rates, then logarithmic ones. With respect to new technologies, it's been observed that adoption rates and most measurable improvements follow a logistic function. For example, people did not go from buying 1 car to buying 10 cars and then 100 cars - most of us hit saturation somewhere between 1 and 2, and stayed there. Similarly, the average speed of our cars did not increase at an increasing rate except in the earliest years of automotive technology; we have a "highway maximum" between 50 and 70 MPH, and a "technical maximum" in the high 200's range for production cars which do not rely on rockets or other not street-legal tricks (a quick search brings up the Hennessey Venom GT at 270.49 MPH). Likewise applied to fast moving vehicles as a whole, including supersonic aircraft and rockets, we've already brushed up against vehicle weight and power density limits that slow the rate of improvement in acceleration. Applied to the Moore's Law measures, that indicates we have a "endless sunset" period ahead of us where we'll still get more doublings of semiconductors, but they'll come increasingly slowly as more fundamental innovations become necessary to realize them. What we don't know is whether there is a logistic curve on technology as a whole. Belief in the Singularity is premised on this not being the case.
- baobabaobab 11y ago
  >What we don't know is whether there is a logistic curve on technology as a whole. Belief in the Singularity is premised on this not being the case. That's a version of the Singularity to extreme even for Kurzweil. It's premised on technological growth not hitting the log portion of the curve before machine intelligence passes humans.
- daveguy 11y ago
  I am of the strong opinion that most technological advancement that is mistaken for endless exponential improvement (eg Moore's law) actually follows a physical sigmoidal curve. I also agree that "the singularity" is a belief based proposition and I personally think it amounts to techno-woo. However, one interesting argument for continuation of technological advancement beyond what we might call "singularity" levels today. If technology maintains an exponential tragectory for another century or so through a few more breakthroughs then we would have some amazing tech. So, it is not required that tech advancement is exponential -- as long as we are still early enough in the sigmoidal curve that more exponential (and linear) advancement is still to come. With biotech, quantum and the algorithmic side of AI I think we still have quite a bit of advancing to do. That said, the singularity stuff is still ridiculous woo woo.
- hyperpallium 11y ago
  Some of those are demand limited. People can't use 10 or 100 cars; street-legal limits aren't technology limits. When a technology limit is reached, but not a demand limit, interest and capital flow to other technologies for meeting that need, starting a new s-curve. eg peak oil prices lead to fracking. Whether it will be at Moore rates we don't know. But the possibility of far superior information technology has a proof by example: biological neurons.
- selimthegrim 11y ago
  Oh sure I know about the logistic curve, I just wasn't sure about black phosphorus.
kumarski 11y ago
People in silicon valley who believe in AI/ML/Battery Technology/Solar/Wind Turbines/Space Travel/Fusion Energy throw around "exponentially accelerating progress" as a platitude so obviously true that it doesn't warrant questioning. (PC quote with my edit) "And despite Silicon Valley's ostensible belief in rationality and empirical evidence, we continue to assert this despite the data strongly suggesting that it just ain't so." - Patrick Collison The race to 7nm is expensive. I think the next big leap will be in Chip Design software which lives under a rock inside a ditch in an anachronism that is EDA - electronic design automation. There's got to be a better way that allows a chip designer to produce a high fidelity mixed signal analog chip at speed and scale without having to pay $25K+ for the software licenses and tooling.