4 ms·

Sailormoon, I can't answer your question but interesting things I have learned reading around this subject : - Since WWII in most of the west house prices hav

by samh 17y ago

Sailormoon, I can't answer your question but interesting things I have learned reading around this subject : - Since WWII in most of the west house prices have risen in real terms (meaning as a percentage of average wages, compared the food bills etc, so not just inflation. So many people think that's the way it works, but data on the price of housing going back to the 1600s says this isn't the normal state of things, house prices stay constant in real terms. - Check whether you are relying on the 'bigger fool' principle. If you could rent a nicer place for less (don't forget maintenance and taxes) but are only buying because you think someone else will be willing to pay even more, even though they could rent somewhere nicer. Question whether that's sustainable.

pyre 17y ago
> data on the price of housing going back to the 1600s Care to share a link to this data (or at least a pointer to where is comes from)? I'd be interested to know where this came from because my first reaction is to distrust the accuracy/validity of such data. That being said, how valid is data going that far back (in relation to now)? Isn't the political as well as economic landscape completely different now? I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, just that I'm not really sure if you can apply that data as a proof.
- alexkay 17y ago
  http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/01/12/how-expensive-is-housing/ http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/01/12/how-expensive-...
- samh 17y ago
  My mistake, the data only goes back to the 1700s Piet Eichholtz the Amsterdam series 1628-1973 http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst;jsessionid=L5RRx0DbVKkhn3XDT8N2T3LQSkzpbgLyPP3qJK03j3hQkyQp1tq5!-736511869!1939691874?docId=5000475432 http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst;jsessionid=L5RRx0Db... It's interesting data if you have this conversation : "Buy property it always goes up" "It always goes up due to inflation" "no over the long term it always goes up in real terms, if you pay A x average yearly income for a property then in 10 years you can sell it for A + B x average yearly income!" "Well here is a graph that shows B is hovering around 0 from 1628 to 1945 and has risen dramatically since then". It certainly is a different way to look at things.
  - pyre 17y ago
    > "Well here is a graph that shows B is hovering around 0 from 1628 to 1945 and has risen dramatically since then" Ah. That also answers my other questions. Talking about data from the 1600's doesn't really inspire confidence that it has any relevance to today, but talking about a trend that held from the 1600's through to just recently (for varying levels of 'just recently') has more weight behind it.

by samh 17y ago

pyre 17y ago

> data on the price of housing going back to the 1600s Care to share a link to this data (or at least a pointer to where is comes from)? I'd be interested to know where this came from because my first reaction is to distrust the accuracy/validity of such data. That being said, how valid is data going that far back (in relation to now)? Isn't the political as well as economic landscape completely different now? I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, just that I'm not really sure if you can apply that data as a proof.

alexkay 17y ago
http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/01/12/how-expensive-is-housing/ http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/01/12/how-expensive-...
samh 17y ago
My mistake, the data only goes back to the 1700s Piet Eichholtz the Amsterdam series 1628-1973 http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst;jsessionid=L5RRx0DbVKkhn3XDT8N2T3LQSkzpbgLyPP3qJK03j3hQkyQp1tq5!-736511869!1939691874?docId=5000475432 http://www.questia.com/googleScholar.qst;jsessionid=L5RRx0Db... It's interesting data if you have this conversation : "Buy property it always goes up" "It always goes up due to inflation" "no over the long term it always goes up in real terms, if you pay A x average yearly income for a property then in 10 years you can sell it for A + B x average yearly income!" "Well here is a graph that shows B is hovering around 0 from 1628 to 1945 and has risen dramatically since then". It certainly is a different way to look at things.
- pyre 17y ago
  > "Well here is a graph that shows B is hovering around 0 from 1628 to 1945 and has risen dramatically since then" Ah. That also answers my other questions. Talking about data from the 1600's doesn't really inspire confidence that it has any relevance to today, but talking about a trend that held from the 1600's through to just recently (for varying levels of 'just recently') has more weight behind it.