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Thank you for the source. I believe this is a good written example of how conservative estimates were as recently as May of 2014. Nonetheless, the quoted esti

Thank you for the source. I believe this is a good written example of how conservative estimates were as recently as May of 2014. Nonetheless, the quoted estimate in the article (mentioned twice, including in the second sentence) is "I think maybe ten years", ie 2024, which while inaccurate is probably "in our lifetimes".

ghaff 11y ago
There are a lot of quotes in that article though. And a number are in the vein of not being sure how they were going to get from where they were to better-than-human. Not my field in any case but I think it's fair to say that there was a lot of skepticism about even the general path going forward even relatively recently.