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No, not if you have a strong prior belief that coins in general are fair. By your logic, you can predict the failure of AGI predictions by past failures of (ev
by argonaut 11y ago
No, not if you have a strong prior belief that coins in general are fair.
By your logic, you can predict the failure of AGI predictions by past failures of (every) AGI prediction.
- Houshalter 11y ago>No, not if you have a strong prior belief Why would you have a strong prior belief about the invention of AGI? Now you are claiming to have far more certainty than I am. >By your logic, you can predict the failure of AGI predictions by past failures of (every) AGI prediction. This logic is extremely flawed. First not every prediction was wrong. Many people predicted it would happen in 2045, a few in 2030. Second there's no reason past predictions represent the accuracy of future predictions about the same thing. Predictions should get more accurate over time, and early predictions are expected to be wildly wrong. And third there's anthropic bias. If they were right, then we wouldn't be here to speculate about it. We can only ever observe negative outcomes, therefore observing a negative outcome shouldn't update your priors at all.
- argonaut 11y agoI was refuting your coin argument, which was pretty ridiculous, if I do say so. The vast majority of predictions were wrong. Yes, the logic is flawed, that's why I said it was your logic.