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DeepMind is an algorithm which clearly improves a lot on traditional tree search. But how will a better tree search algorithm lead to AI taking over? Why does
by panic 11y ago
DeepMind is an algorithm which clearly improves a lot on traditional tree search. But how will a better tree search algorithm lead to AI taking over? Why does winning at Go mean AI is closer to taking over the world than when it won at Chess?
- 21 11y agoThe issue is that we don't take the threat seriously, since we believe we have plenty of time to solve it. Some don't even believe it's a threat at all (will unplug it, right?) This 10 years to beat go prediction shows that our time estimates are wildly ignorant.
- kevinwang 11y agoah, but it's not just tree search. It uses neural nets, which makes it different than the chess algorithms.
- Eliezer 11y agoIt's not an improved tree search. Deepmind was almost pro level purely using the deep learning network before doing any Monte Carlo search. One way of looking at the significance of this is that it might tell us that relatively simple machine learning algorithms can capture key aspects of the versatile human cortical capacity to learn things like Go using sheer pattern recognition. (It's amazing that human visual cortex can do that.) If the human brain were more mystical in its power, then human-level ability to recognize Go patterns wouldn't have been penetrable at all to a comparatively simple neural algorithm like deep learning. From another standpoint, this could show that we're reaching the point where, when an AI algorithm starts to reach interesting levels of performance, a much-encouraged Google dumps 100,000 tons of GPU time and 5 months of a few dozen researchers' time to improve the algorithm right past the human performance level. In N years from now when it's a more interesting AI system doing more interesting cognition, we could see a more interesting result materialize when a big organization, encouraged by some key milestone, invests 5 months of time and massively more computing power to further improve an AI system.
- panic 11y agoRegardless of how good the deep learning network is on its own, the algorithm described in the DeepMind paper is an improved tree search.
- Eliezer 11y agoI don't think it's accurate to call AlphaGo 'improved tree search' the way that Deep Blue was improved tree search. You could with equal justice call it an improved neural net.
- argonaut 11y agoThe correct characterization is that it's a hybrid of deep learning and tree search. It's also a hybrid in the feature representation for the algorithm. There are raw features (board state), but there are also handcrafted features for the tree search.
- panic 11y agoI'd say both characterizations are accurate. Neither the tree search nor the neural net could have accomplished this on their own. But the essential interface to the algorithm is the tree search: it's picking the best move from a set of legal moves determined by formal game rules. The real world doesn't follow formal game rules. I find it difficult to see the progression from this victory to some kind of real-world AI takeover.
- igravious 11y ago> The real world doesn't follow formal game rules. Really? Why not?
- argonaut 11y agoInfinite state/belief/world space. Infinite action space. It's not so much that there aren't rules (there are - physics), it's that the complexity of the full set of rules is exponential or super-exponential.
- chipsy 11y agoIt isn't a tree search algorithm.
- typeformer 11y ago@panic I'm sorry but you don't understand go.
- lovemenot 11y agoThis reinforces what a bad idea it is to drink and post.