6 ms·

Blue Origin is a credible rocket company, in case anybody was wondering. They've got some impressive engineering, a realistic, incremental long-term plan, and p

by pjscott 11y ago

Blue Origin is a credible rocket company, in case anybody was wondering. They've got some impressive engineering, a realistic, incremental long-term plan, and pockets deep enough to pay for it.

avmich 11y ago
I agree, but take a look here: SpaceX was established 2 years later than Blue Origin, with principal sponsor's net worth may be an order of magnitude less; yet today's SpaceX achievements, I think, are more serious overall than Blue Origin's. Having a realistic, incremental long-term plan may be not enough to remain relevant in the market, if the latter shifts fast enough. Would you say Lockheed and Boeing don't have have a realistic plan? Yet their lunch is increasingly eaten by competition. It's good they actually adapt their plans.
- c3534l 11y ago
  > may be not enough to remain relevant in the market You're forgetting that there isn't actually a market here. There is currently no commercial service that brings you into space.
  - avmich 11y ago
    Market is figurative here - even if you don't pursue immediate commercial benefits, you may get ahead of fall behind, as it was happening in less than market oriented Soviet space program. But on the other hand, I'd be surprised if Blue Origin was only focused on the market of commercial flights to space. That market is somewhat covered by Russia's Soyuz flights - admittedly just a few flights total so far. Suborbital flights - may be, but there could be competition from Virgin Galactic. Blue Origin also makes engines which are planned to be used on other manufacturer's rockets - here we have competition from Aerojet and even XCOR. So - even if some market niches don't exist today, it doesn't mean Blue Origin doesn't have competition - as they are also not offering flight right now. Competition in space flight, for example, existed, say, in 1960, when two countries tried to send a man to space first.
  - chadzawistowski 11y ago
    'Course there's a market. Just because you can't afford to visit space doesn't mean there aren't commercial buyers. NASA awards contracts, as does the US military. Plus there's huge interest in telecommunications satellites.
    - toomuchtodo 11y ago
      SpaceX has proven the ability to obtain orbit. Blue Origin has not. NASA and the US military want to get to orbit, not the edge of space.
  - LoSboccacc 11y ago
    There's msrket enough to sustain the industry and if spacex is succesfull at reducing costs by an order of magnitude I'd expect it to grow, especially nanosat. University can already afford to buy a couple slots a year on a shared vector, for example, and those who don't already expressed interest
    - usrusr 11y ago
      But unlike SpaceX, Blue Origin are nearly as far from the existing market of putting stuff into orbit as Copenhagen Suborbitals. They are much closer to the hypothetical market of suborbital joyrides than CopSub, but so far, that hypothetical market does not sustain anything.
- TrevorJ 11y ago
  Different business models, different segments of the market.
- novembermike 11y ago
  I wonder if this market will be one that favors the first mover or the second mover. People always talk about the first mover advantage but the second mover is often the one with lasting success.
  - imglorp 11y ago
    How would a competitor benefit from SpaceX work at being the first mover? I'm guessing they did need to pave some regulatory and procurement roads, but that job seems lesser than their tech. And by the way, they don't patent, because doing so reveals too many details.
- mhandley 11y ago
  Yes, but remember that Lockheed and Boeing (in the form of ULA) will be using Blue Origin's BE-4 engine for their next heavy launcher. There's more than one way to become a big player in this game. Blue Origin aren't tryng to do everything at once. That worked out for SpaceX, but it was a really close-run thing - one more Falcon 1 launch failure, and they'd have run out of money. The Blue Origin business model is slower, but still looks like it will be effective.

by pjscott 11y ago

Blue Origin is a credible rocket company, in case anybody was wondering. They've got some impressive engineering, a realistic, incremental long-term plan, and pockets deep enough to pay for it.

avmich 11y ago

I agree, but take a look here: SpaceX was established 2 years later than Blue Origin, with principal sponsor's net worth may be an order of magnitude less; yet today's SpaceX achievements, I think, are more serious overall than Blue Origin's. Having a realistic, incremental long-term plan may be not enough to remain relevant in the market, if the latter shifts fast enough. Would you say Lockheed and Boeing don't have have a realistic plan? Yet their lunch is increasingly eaten by competition. It's good they actually adapt their plans.

c3534l 11y ago
> may be not enough to remain relevant in the market You're forgetting that there isn't actually a market here. There is currently no commercial service that brings you into space.
- avmich 11y ago
  Market is figurative here - even if you don't pursue immediate commercial benefits, you may get ahead of fall behind, as it was happening in less than market oriented Soviet space program. But on the other hand, I'd be surprised if Blue Origin was only focused on the market of commercial flights to space. That market is somewhat covered by Russia's Soyuz flights - admittedly just a few flights total so far. Suborbital flights - may be, but there could be competition from Virgin Galactic. Blue Origin also makes engines which are planned to be used on other manufacturer's rockets - here we have competition from Aerojet and even XCOR. So - even if some market niches don't exist today, it doesn't mean Blue Origin doesn't have competition - as they are also not offering flight right now. Competition in space flight, for example, existed, say, in 1960, when two countries tried to send a man to space first.
- chadzawistowski 11y ago
  'Course there's a market. Just because you can't afford to visit space doesn't mean there aren't commercial buyers. NASA awards contracts, as does the US military. Plus there's huge interest in telecommunications satellites.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    SpaceX has proven the ability to obtain orbit. Blue Origin has not. NASA and the US military want to get to orbit, not the edge of space.
- LoSboccacc 11y ago
  There's msrket enough to sustain the industry and if spacex is succesfull at reducing costs by an order of magnitude I'd expect it to grow, especially nanosat. University can already afford to buy a couple slots a year on a shared vector, for example, and those who don't already expressed interest
  - usrusr 11y ago
    But unlike SpaceX, Blue Origin are nearly as far from the existing market of putting stuff into orbit as Copenhagen Suborbitals. They are much closer to the hypothetical market of suborbital joyrides than CopSub, but so far, that hypothetical market does not sustain anything.
TrevorJ 11y ago
Different business models, different segments of the market.
novembermike 11y ago
I wonder if this market will be one that favors the first mover or the second mover. People always talk about the first mover advantage but the second mover is often the one with lasting success.
- imglorp 11y ago
  How would a competitor benefit from SpaceX work at being the first mover? I'm guessing they did need to pave some regulatory and procurement roads, but that job seems lesser than their tech. And by the way, they don't patent, because doing so reveals too many details.
mhandley 11y ago
Yes, but remember that Lockheed and Boeing (in the form of ULA) will be using Blue Origin's BE-4 engine for their next heavy launcher. There's more than one way to become a big player in this game. Blue Origin aren't tryng to do everything at once. That worked out for SpaceX, but it was a really close-run thing - one more Falcon 1 launch failure, and they'd have run out of money. The Blue Origin business model is slower, but still looks like it will be effective.