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There's thousands of reputable management firms out in the world and they had to start by quoting the reputable one that agrees with them. Don't be daft. If t

There's thousands of reputable management firms out in the world and they had to start by quoting the reputable one that agrees with them. Don't be daft. If they had an agenda and they were clever about it, it wouldn't be so obvious. Now don't get me wrong, plenty of people are skeptical of what will happen to the Euro, but the outright failure of the said currency is an extreme position. If you entertain that idea, then you'd also have to entertain the idea that perhaps the Greeks will leave the Eurozone. As another prominent economist recently noted, the flight of money from Greek banks hints that this is not out of the question.

hga 17y ago
To your first paragraph, that's why I read a variety of sources. To your second: I basically hold that "extreme position", the arguments in its favor have always seemed to be strong to me. And the current situation with Greece is exactly the sort of thing that was predicted by those who's arguments I found to be convincing (basically, that a one size fits all monetary policy wasn't likely to work, since it would impose the same thing on countries with different situations). Will a Greek exit from the Eurozone trigger the failure of the Euro? I don't know, it'll certainly stress it. That said, the Euro has lasted a lot longer than most of those skeptics expected.
- blue1 17y ago
  Can anyone explain what is meant exactly by "failure of the Euro"? It just refers to a falling of the exchange rates of EUR vs anything else? Or rather to a scenario in which there is a changeover back to national currencies (slightly unthinkable, apparently)? Or what else?
  - hga 17y ago
    The latter. E.g. as an initial step, one that sure looks like it will have to happen absent a bailout, is that Greece withdraws from the Eurozone and starts issuing its own currency again. The government would offer every holder of a Euro denominated government bond repayment in that currency ... and that's where it starts to get very messy. What about Greek banks? What about Greeks holding Euros (physical or in non-Greek banks)? Who externally will accept payment in that new currency for physical stuff (e.g. food)? Does this become congagious, with one or more of the remaining PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) following? Then what? (I'm not at all clear on that.)
    - blue1 17y ago
      The changeover TO euro had to be carefully prepared for years. The reverse looks like an apocalyptic scenario. I don't know, anything can happen, of course, but I live in the eurozone (Italy) and the very idea of abandoning the euro looks like bad SF to me.

hga 17y ago

To your first paragraph, that's why I read a variety of sources. To your second: I basically hold that "extreme position", the arguments in its favor have always seemed to be strong to me. And the current situation with Greece is exactly the sort of thing that was predicted by those who's arguments I found to be convincing (basically, that a one size fits all monetary policy wasn't likely to work, since it would impose the same thing on countries with different situations). Will a Greek exit from the Eurozone trigger the failure of the Euro? I don't know, it'll certainly stress it. That said, the Euro has lasted a lot longer than most of those skeptics expected.

blue1 17y ago
Can anyone explain what is meant exactly by "failure of the Euro"? It just refers to a falling of the exchange rates of EUR vs anything else? Or rather to a scenario in which there is a changeover back to national currencies (slightly unthinkable, apparently)? Or what else?
- hga 17y ago
  The latter. E.g. as an initial step, one that sure looks like it will have to happen absent a bailout, is that Greece withdraws from the Eurozone and starts issuing its own currency again. The government would offer every holder of a Euro denominated government bond repayment in that currency ... and that's where it starts to get very messy. What about Greek banks? What about Greeks holding Euros (physical or in non-Greek banks)? Who externally will accept payment in that new currency for physical stuff (e.g. food)? Does this become congagious, with one or more of the remaining PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain) following? Then what? (I'm not at all clear on that.)
  - blue1 17y ago
    The changeover TO euro had to be carefully prepared for years. The reverse looks like an apocalyptic scenario. I don't know, anything can happen, of course, but I live in the eurozone (Italy) and the very idea of abandoning the euro looks like bad SF to me.