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In December 1975 the Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index was at 26.45. In December 2015 it was at 175.65. Case-Shiller prices are nominal. So nominally, h
by jackcosgrove 11y ago
In December 1975 the Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index was at 26.45. In December 2015 it was at 175.65. Case-Shiller prices are nominal. So nominally, home prices have risen 564% in 40 years. (http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-us-national-home-price-index http://us.spindices.com/indices/real-estate/sp-case-shiller-...)
In 1974, median real household income for those aged 25-34 was about $54,000 per year. In 2014, it was roughly the same. (http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Household-Incomes-by-Age-Brackets http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Household-...)
Using a BLS inflation calculator, we can calculate the 1974 nominal median income for those aged 25-34 as $11,245. (http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm http://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm)
As a sanity check, I checked the Census for the median household income in 1974 and it was $12,840, which makes sense. (http://www2.census.gov/prod2/popscan/p60-101.pdf http://www2.census.gov/prod2/popscan/p60-101.pdf)
So in 1975, the Case-Shiller index to young household median nominal income ratio was 0.00235. In 2015, it was 0.00325. This means that in 40 years, the amount of money young households must pay for buying a house has risen by 38%.
- LaMarseillaise 11y agoDoes this index account for the increase in home size since 1975? Homes are nearly twice as large now.
- jackcosgrove 11y agoIt does not adjust for square footage, so yes that's a good point.
- ianferrel 11y agoThe 30-year mortgage interest rate in 1975 was 8+%. These days it's less than 4%. The value of the house has increased significantly, but has the value of the monthly payment?
- jackcosgrove 11y agoFor first time buyers the down payment is a bigger hurdle than the monthly payment. Higher purchase prices make this hurdle even higher, even if monthly payments as a proportion of income are the same, as I suspect they are.