This is true, but consider the number of births attributable to refugees and other recent immigrants, and consider what kind of cohorts are coming in, and where

This is true, but consider the number of births attributable to refugees and other recent immigrants, and consider what kind of cohorts are coming in, and where - the entire EU isn't receiving an even distribution of immigrants. Mohammed is the most popular baby name in London. The young-adult-male cohort in Germany will soon be dominated by peoples of Middle Eastern origin - most Germans are old, and immigrants are largely young and male. In countries like Sweden, fully 20% of the population is foreign-born or born to foreign-born parents. Cultural change is definitely coming to the EU one way or another. For hundreds of years, until around the 60s, most European countries allowed virtually no non-European immigration. Given the birthrates of native Europeans, we're talking about total demographic replacement in a few generations in many countries. I find it hard to believe that's not going to cause some instability in the short to medium term.