3 ms·
If each year your chance of dying is 0.025%, and there's no relationship between subsequent years, wouldn't the chance remain 0.025% even after thousands of yea
by nness 11y ago
If each year your chance of dying is 0.025%, and there's no relationship between subsequent years, wouldn't the chance remain 0.025% even after thousands of years?
(since what we're talking about is the probability of independent events.)
- morgante 11y agoThe probability of dying every year stays the same, but the probability of dying in one of those 9,000 years is cumulative.
- IncRnd 11y agoIf that is how you calculate probabilities, what happens between 4,000 and 9000 years? Are you undead for 5,000 years?
- morgante 11y agoNo... If you were just born, then you will probably die by age 4000. But if you are 3999 then you will almost certainly live to age 4000. Your probability of reaching a certain age is always contingent on your current age.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]