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I don't mean to be a pessimist but this entire article boils down to describing Moore's law, and saying that medical research will advance quickly because it us

by nck4222 11y ago

I don't mean to be a pessimist but this entire article boils down to describing Moore's law, and saying that medical research will advance quickly because it uses computers as well. Seems a little shoddy.

MatthewWilkes 11y ago
Well, to play devil's advocate for a moment… if actuaries did agree they wouldn't publicise it as an increased expectation of health is would benefit them financially. If actuaries expected people to live less time they'd be keen to increase rates and advertise it. If they seriously expected people to stop dying then the estimated value of life insurance policies would drop to zero. Personally, I think it's more than a little unlikely that we're the last generation to know death.
- nmrm2 11y ago
  > If they seriously expected people to stop dying then the estimated value of life insurance policies would drop to zero. I think it's (not im)possible that rates would go up! Here's why: The most risky (largest) life insurance policies aren't taken out by people who fully expect to reach old age; rather, they are taken out by people in their prime with young families or other dependents. So you have people taking out large policies from ages 25 - 50 or so, and then going back to small policies or no policy at all. The risk pool is now very different -- lots of very pofitable policies, but also a lot of risk. The existential risk to the insurance company might actually increase in that case, and rates would have to be increased to accomodate this risk. Probably not, and IANAA, but it'd be interesting if an actual actuary familiar with life insurance could chime in.
  - pjc50 11y ago
    The worst case scenario is that people manage to fend off death but not old age and infirmity. This leads to the collapse not of the insurance industry but the much larger pensions industry, as there is no longer any amount of money that you can accumulate during a 50-year working life that will guarantee you a non-working life forever.
nikbackm 11y ago
Not to mention that most in the know seem to agree Moore's law has come to an end, as all exponential growth must at some point in the real world.
- isseu 11y ago
  Yeah, Some things work with Eroom's_Law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eroom's_Law?previous=yes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eroom's_Law?previous=yes
- aetherson 11y ago
  If this kind of simple-minded extrapolation worked, we would all be flying personal vehicles that could break the sound barrier right now, and would take vacations on the moon.
codecamper 11y ago
Just hope they don't lose a backup.... that could be the end of me!
rpgmaker 11y ago
You are not being a pessimist, is just that the author presented a weak argument.

by nck4222 11y ago

MatthewWilkes 11y ago

Well, to play devil's advocate for a moment… if actuaries did agree they wouldn't publicise it as an increased expectation of health is would benefit them financially. If actuaries expected people to live less time they'd be keen to increase rates and advertise it. If they seriously expected people to stop dying then the estimated value of life insurance policies would drop to zero. Personally, I think it's more than a little unlikely that we're the last generation to know death.

nmrm2 11y ago
> If they seriously expected people to stop dying then the estimated value of life insurance policies would drop to zero. I think it's (not im)possible that rates would go up! Here's why: The most risky (largest) life insurance policies aren't taken out by people who fully expect to reach old age; rather, they are taken out by people in their prime with young families or other dependents. So you have people taking out large policies from ages 25 - 50 or so, and then going back to small policies or no policy at all. The risk pool is now very different -- lots of very pofitable policies, but also a lot of risk. The existential risk to the insurance company might actually increase in that case, and rates would have to be increased to accomodate this risk. Probably not, and IANAA, but it'd be interesting if an actual actuary familiar with life insurance could chime in.
- pjc50 11y ago
  The worst case scenario is that people manage to fend off death but not old age and infirmity. This leads to the collapse not of the insurance industry but the much larger pensions industry, as there is no longer any amount of money that you can accumulate during a 50-year working life that will guarantee you a non-working life forever.

nikbackm 11y ago

Not to mention that most in the know seem to agree Moore's law has come to an end, as all exponential growth must at some point in the real world.

isseu 11y ago
Yeah, Some things work with Eroom's_Law https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eroom's_Law?previous=yes https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eroom's_Law?previous=yes
aetherson 11y ago
If this kind of simple-minded extrapolation worked, we would all be flying personal vehicles that could break the sound barrier right now, and would take vacations on the moon.

codecamper 11y ago

Just hope they don't lose a backup.... that could be the end of me!

rpgmaker 11y ago

You are not being a pessimist, is just that the author presented a weak argument.