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> Today, the powers that be are not interested in a war. And I'm glad this is the case. A war between any of the great powers could potentially have catastroph

> Today, the powers that be are not interested in a war. And I'm glad this is the case. A war between any of the great powers could potentially have catastrophic consequences for almost everyone. > Remember, the powers that were were rather equal in terms of military strength. Today, they team up to beat on weaker powers. Maybe this seemed like a acceptable strategy back in the 90ties, but today we see it backfiring on everyone. Refugees flooding the EU causing EU members to block each other which in turn threatens the EU itself, radicalised Muslims threatening the territorial integrity of China, North Korea going nuts, possibly a bloody civil war awaiting Turkey. My point is that you can gang up and beat on weak players only for so long until the masses radicalise and become a major threat to your own existence.

Svip 11y ago
I agree. I apologise if my phrasing implied approval of this strategy, that was not my intent. Our current leader suffer the same weakness as our past leaders: Failure to foresee the consequences of their preferred (and tested) strategies in new environments. The First World War as practically fought as a classic European war initially. And it was assumed by everyone that it would be just that; another quick decisive war. And it looked like it might almost have been that, had it not been for some strategic blunders by German HQ. Blunders that were sparked by conservative ideas and classic defence strategy. When the war became entrenched, no side truly knew how to advance. They knew how to defend their position (machine guns), but not how to take the other's positions. That first really changed with the introduction of the tank. But that arrived too late to partake in many battles in that war. The Second World War proved its usefulness to its fullest. Traditional geopolitical, strategic thinking and military schools turned the First World War into a far bloodier than it could have been. New technology, new warfare tactics among other things have changed they dynamic for war. Today, new ideologies, again new warfare tactics (think urban warfare), new opponents (not nation states anymore) among other things are again changing the dynamic. When the First World War ended, the solution to it was the same as always; war reparation without considerations to their consequences. The same thing is happening today; old strategy and military schools are being applied to conflicts to which they do not apply. It might be because our current leaders are politicians first, and need to secure their popularity among voters. Moreso than our past leaders. But it might also just be history repeating itself. In a way.
- RUG3Y 11y ago
  > The First World War as practically fought as a classic European war initially. And it was assumed by everyone that it would be just that; another quick decisive war. Europe has historically had long, drawn out wars that wiped out huge swathes of the civilian population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War
zimpenfish 11y ago
> Refugees flooding the EU About 2M refugees in 2015 (highest number I could find) into a population of ~508M isn't "flooding". For comparison, there seems to have been just over 5M "live births" in 2014[3]. [1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24583286 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24583286 [2] http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-data/main-tables http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migra... [3] http://www.statista.com/statistics/253401/number-of-live-births-in-the-eu/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/253401/number-of-live-bir...
- acqq 11y ago
  What would be the number you'd consider "flooding"? As soon the significant instability is introduced, it's too much. It depends on the effects, not on the numbers alone.
  - zimpenfish 11y ago
    Good question and I couldn't tell you offhand - but I will stand by my disagreement with "+0.4% from migration is flooding" when "+0.9% from births" isn't.
    - AlgorithmicTime 11y ago
      Babies don't often bring foreign cultural norms and overwhelm social services. Which is why one might be flooded with migrants, but not babies, though there be more babies. It's why rain might cause flooding but not snow. The snow may cause a flood later, but not now.
      - zimpenfish 11y ago
        Can you cite some evidence for "overwhelm social services"?
        AlgorithmicTime 11y ago

Svip 11y ago

I agree. I apologise if my phrasing implied approval of this strategy, that was not my intent. Our current leader suffer the same weakness as our past leaders: Failure to foresee the consequences of their preferred (and tested) strategies in new environments. The First World War as practically fought as a classic European war initially. And it was assumed by everyone that it would be just that; another quick decisive war. And it looked like it might almost have been that, had it not been for some strategic blunders by German HQ. Blunders that were sparked by conservative ideas and classic defence strategy. When the war became entrenched, no side truly knew how to advance. They knew how to defend their position (machine guns), but not how to take the other's positions. That first really changed with the introduction of the tank. But that arrived too late to partake in many battles in that war. The Second World War proved its usefulness to its fullest. Traditional geopolitical, strategic thinking and military schools turned the First World War into a far bloodier than it could have been. New technology, new warfare tactics among other things have changed they dynamic for war. Today, new ideologies, again new warfare tactics (think urban warfare), new opponents (not nation states anymore) among other things are again changing the dynamic. When the First World War ended, the solution to it was the same as always; war reparation without considerations to their consequences. The same thing is happening today; old strategy and military schools are being applied to conflicts to which they do not apply. It might be because our current leaders are politicians first, and need to secure their popularity among voters. Moreso than our past leaders. But it might also just be history repeating itself. In a way.

RUG3Y 11y ago
> The First World War as practically fought as a classic European war initially. And it was assumed by everyone that it would be just that; another quick decisive war. Europe has historically had long, drawn out wars that wiped out huge swathes of the civilian population. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thirty_Years%27_War

zimpenfish 11y ago

> Refugees flooding the EU About 2M refugees in 2015 (highest number I could find) into a population of ~508M isn't "flooding". For comparison, there seems to have been just over 5M "live births" in 2014[3]. [1] http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24583286 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24583286 [2] http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migration-projections/population-data/main-tables http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/population-demography-migra... [3] http://www.statista.com/statistics/253401/number-of-live-births-in-the-eu/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/253401/number-of-live-bir...

acqq 11y ago
What would be the number you'd consider "flooding"? As soon the significant instability is introduced, it's too much. It depends on the effects, not on the numbers alone.
- zimpenfish 11y ago
  Good question and I couldn't tell you offhand - but I will stand by my disagreement with "+0.4% from migration is flooding" when "+0.9% from births" isn't.
  - AlgorithmicTime 11y ago
    Babies don't often bring foreign cultural norms and overwhelm social services. Which is why one might be flooded with migrants, but not babies, though there be more babies. It's why rain might cause flooding but not snow. The snow may cause a flood later, but not now.
    - zimpenfish 11y ago
      Can you cite some evidence for "overwhelm social services"?
      - AlgorithmicTime 11y ago