No, that's not their methodology at all. They did a survey of AI experts and asked them for their predictions, and then took the median of those predictions. Th

No, that's not their methodology at all. They did a survey of AI experts and asked them for their predictions, and then took the median of those predictions. That's perfectly fair, and in fact far more likely to be correct than taking a random experts prediction. See the wisdom of crowds. The best way to do it would be to assume each expert is equally likely to be correct, and then estimate what the probability is from there. 50% of experts say there is a 50% chance it will be developed by 2045. Therefore 50% by 2045 is a good estimate. In fact if anything it's an underestimate, since many of the other 50% of experts will still assign some probability to it happening before 2045, increasing the odds. If you want me to, I can do a simulation with the data given and find out what the exact numbers should be. But the numbers in that abstract are unlikely to be too far off, and if anything are an underestimate. As for whether it's valid to take the opinions of experts, that's a different issue. But 1) the predictions of experts are more likely to be correct than random HN commentators. 2) the predictions of a group of experts are more likely to be correct than a single expert, which is what this thread is about. And 3) uncertainty doesn't mean you can default to the hypothesis that it won't happen. If nothing else a survey of predictions provides a good prior.