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There likely exists a larger stockpile of fairly well-engineered manually driven cars than there were buggies during the advent of the automobile. This existing

by c22 11y ago

There likely exists a larger stockpile of fairly well-engineered manually driven cars than there were buggies during the advent of the automobile. This existing stock will likely buffer the robotic revolution of our roads somewhat. Also, I think the convenience delta from self-driven car to "driverless" car is smaller than that from keeping living horses to regular maintenance of an automobile.

toomuchtodo 11y ago
> Also, I think the convenience delta from self-driven car to "driverless" car is smaller than that from keeping living horses to regular maintenance of an automobile. The number of teenagers with driver's licenses is the lowest in history. Compound that with the 65+ cohort aging quickly, and older drivers being dangerous drivers (lower reaction time). It's not a convenience delta. Its an experience and safety delta. We are talking tens of billions (if not more) of dollars in savings from taking the human out of the loop.
- tclmeelmo 11y ago
  > The number of teenagers with driver's licenses is the lowest in history. The value of such a statistic is questionable given that the minimum age for a license has increased of late.
  - toomuchtodo 11y ago
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/01/19/drivers-licenses-uber-lyft/78994526/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/01/19/drivers-... http://time.com/money/4185441/millennials-drivers-licenses-gen-x/ http://time.com/money/4185441/millennials-drivers-licenses-g... http://www.npr.org/2016/02/11/466178523/like-millennials-more-older-americans-steering-away-from-driving http://www.npr.org/2016/02/11/466178523/like-millennials-mor... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/10/14/the-many-reasons-millennials-are-shunning-cars/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/10/14/the-m... http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2016/0120/Why-are-Millennials-forgoing-driving http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2016/0120/Why-are-Mi...
    - tclmeelmo 11y ago
      From your first link: "Getting a driver's license after turning 16 years old has become a lengthier process in recent years, as regulators instituted more safety hurdles. That has also led to a sharp decline in teenagers who are driving." That said, this is going sideways because I didn't make a complete and clear post originally. Never mind.

by c22 11y ago

toomuchtodo 11y ago

> Also, I think the convenience delta from self-driven car to "driverless" car is smaller than that from keeping living horses to regular maintenance of an automobile. The number of teenagers with driver's licenses is the lowest in history. Compound that with the 65+ cohort aging quickly, and older drivers being dangerous drivers (lower reaction time). It's not a convenience delta. Its an experience and safety delta. We are talking tens of billions (if not more) of dollars in savings from taking the human out of the loop.

tclmeelmo 11y ago
> The number of teenagers with driver's licenses is the lowest in history. The value of such a statistic is questionable given that the minimum age for a license has increased of late.
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/01/19/drivers-licenses-uber-lyft/78994526/ http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/01/19/drivers-... http://time.com/money/4185441/millennials-drivers-licenses-gen-x/ http://time.com/money/4185441/millennials-drivers-licenses-g... http://www.npr.org/2016/02/11/466178523/like-millennials-more-older-americans-steering-away-from-driving http://www.npr.org/2016/02/11/466178523/like-millennials-mor... https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/10/14/the-many-reasons-millennials-are-shunning-cars/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/10/14/the-m... http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2016/0120/Why-are-Millennials-forgoing-driving http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2016/0120/Why-are-Mi...
  - tclmeelmo 11y ago
    From your first link: "Getting a driver's license after turning 16 years old has become a lengthier process in recent years, as regulators instituted more safety hurdles. That has also led to a sharp decline in teenagers who are driving." That said, this is going sideways because I didn't make a complete and clear post originally. Never mind.