8 ms·

Life and death in the App Store

137 points by gpresot 11y ago

aaronbrethorst 11y ago
But the App Store’s middle class is small and shrinking. Apple may not realize it now, but this is an existential threat to iOS's near-dominance of the mobile device market.
- draw_down 11y ago
  Only if someone else manages to make a better app store and ecosystem. I would love for that to happen but I don't see it any time soon. As many problems as Apple's app stores have, they're the best ones. Which is depressing in its own right.
  - cageface 11y ago
    This hurts Apple more than it hurts Android because the greater quality and diversity of iOS apps has long been a selling point for their devices. Apple needs this differentiating factor more than ever now that Android and Apple phones are now so close in terms of hardware quality and OS polish. Apple has done a lot to make lives better for iOS developers in the last few years. Why they can't invest some of that energy into making the app store a less hostile place for smaller players is a mystery.
    - curt15 11y ago
      >Apple needs this differentiating factor more than ever now that Android and Apple phones are now so close in terms of hardware quality and OS polish. Apple still wields a massive security trump card, especially when pitching to enterprises, because with the possible exception of the Nexus, no Android device comes with any commitment by the OEM to providing timely security patches.
      - cageface 11y ago
        I'm not convinced that the average user cares much about this, at least not yet. But it's true that at least for the moment Apple has a distinct advantage here.
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
aschearer 11y ago
To compete in a global marketplace with no barrier to entry it's not enough to simply ship software. Apps are commodities. You've got to create something with unique value. Probably that means doing something technically difficult or new.
- increment_i 11y ago
  I was going to say exactly the same thing. Once the initial novelty of app stores wore off, only the shitty economics behind them were left to bare: - The barrier to entry is so low as to be non-existent. We haven't seen a mass distribution channel with entry barriers this low since the lemonade stand. - Since the above point forces most participants in the market to now compete mostly on price, the race to the bottom of the last decade or so has raised a generation of consumers who now expect software to be free. - The subtle friction of finding and installing apps has led the average person to basically not bother at all, as we now know most people install zero apps per month. The lions share is now exclusively the domain of those with ridiculous marketing budgets and iffy business practices. I'm just not sure exactly where we are on the technology curve of App Stores. Are we in the trough of sorrow, where a new horizon of viability and sustainability coupled with lowered expectations is just around the corner? Or will we look back at the App Stores as the AOL of the 2010's? I'd love to hear opinions on the subject.
  - zem 11y ago
    > The subtle friction of finding and installing apps has led the average person to basically not bother at all, as we now know most people install zero apps per month. don't forget the subtle friction of having to pay for stuff, which is another factor triggering the race-to-free.
    - increment_i 11y ago
      True, but again this ties into the first point about the marginal cost of producing apps being basically zero, thus they hold little value to anyone. Especially when the stock OS apps do nearly everything the average, non-niche consumer wants to do with a mobile device. You accept the friction of paying for a porterhouse steak because no butcher could sell them for less than the marginal cost of producing them and remain viable. Since the marginal cost of producing apps is (essentially) nothing, it's no surprise almost nobody can resist the downward pressure and make a buck off apps.
nsxwolf 11y ago
Once it got to the point that searching for my apps by name returned the apps of larger competitors, I knew it was time to bail on my silly hobby.
- antiviral 11y ago
  And this is the root of the problem- lack of discoverability for apps. Once you have several thousand apps (not to mention 1MM+), it becomes exceedingly difficult to find apps that are relevant to you. Someone might create a better app than the one you have on your phone, or one that you don't even realize you need, but how will you know about it? If you can only rely on the App Store rankings and search engine, you are going to have to spend alot of time looking through irrelevant results- most people don't have that kind of time. The result is (as brought up in the article) that app developers need more sophisticated 'growth-hacking' techniques outside of the ecosystem, which tend to be hit or miss depending on some degree of luck. There have been several app discovery platforms like AppGratis and Chomp, but Apple has shut them all down. Apple may have wanted to preserve the Appstore as the single authority on their apps, but now they have created a more dangerous, and possibly existential crisis for themselves- irrelevance of the app ecosystem. Why should I create apps (or invest in app developers) if my chance of success is less than 0.1%? As a consumer, I may still buy Apple devices, but it will be less because of the great apps, which will become increasingly scarce.
- Agustus 11y ago
  When the roll out of ios 7 or 8 occurred, the games on the first week at the app store were ridiculous cheesy items. It made the case that the back end at Apple was not cared for. Looking at this weeks AppStore front page offerings, a lot of them were from the previous week's AppStore offerings; no change essentially. I have slowly stopped going to the store as a source for anything. What I need is a web page that tells me where to go for XYZ App, who has the newest option, and how much it costs. I bought Assembly the week it came out because it addressed a need of mine for basic graphic design, simply done. Then, I want to say the week after, it was free on the AppStore. I have been burned three times so far by jumping on something only to see it released for free a few weeks later. I AM LOOKING AT YOU ALTO's JOURNEY. Ultimately, we should all learn from Rovio's trajectory: 1. One-hit wonder 2. Ramp up to find more customers 3. Sales from new customers goes down as saturation sets in 4. New product fails to deliver 5. Turn on existing customers to have them pay a monthly fee to deliver a stable income. Look at the DayOne's App movement on the AppStore (I love this app, but unfortunately I know they will move to a revenue model after my three years of using their app).
hellbanner 11y ago
Can we talk about how we educate users on what a "webapp" is? In the last few years I've shown potential clients, friends and strangers webapps and they've asked "Oh neat.. but is there an app? Where can I download it?" or something similar. This is very frustrating because it encourages walled-garden..
- rokhayakebe 11y ago
  Consumers are not choosing between web apps and native apps. The problem is Path to Discovery and Launch. Discovery: Google too is an Appstore to most people. You tell well educated people on Desktop to go to Facebook and they do this: Google.com -> Click Search Bar -> Type Facebook -> Click First Link. No matter what first link is. The appstore serves the same purpose to this group. Launch: If you removed most app icons on people's phone and replace them with web app bookmarks, many will not know the difference. This is a shortcut for them.
  - peterkelly 11y ago
    Funny story about that... there was an incident where a news article that mentioned Facebook ended up being the #1 result for the keyword on Google. The comments section was inundated with complaints from people who said they couldn't log in demanding the "old facebook" back: http://readwrite.com/2010/02/11/how_google_failed_internet_meme http://readwrite.com/2010/02/11/how_google_failed_internet_m...
- stcredzero 11y ago
  Did you find out why? Were any of them burned by bad webapp interfaces? Were any of them burned by their webapp getting an "unwelcome update?" Were any of them burned by crappy behavior under limited connectivity? (That one has happened to me a lot with web apps on an iPhone.) I suspect that the problems of small app developers are much the same as guys on dating sites. All of the discoverability is implemented and controlled by one entity who doesn't depend on your success specifically to make money. They only need just enough success to keep the whole thing running. I wish now that Jobs had gotten his way in the beginning, and all of the apps would be web apps, and discoverability would be through web links and search engines.
bko 11y ago
Is there any reason there can't be a browser experience that relies on data as well as some cached data? Browsers are getting better at detecting native gestures common in most apps and I know a lot of internet content can be cached. Won't this eventually replace the app store as it's easier, no one would take a cut and there'd be less barriers to trying new services? I think there is some reluctance in people downloading apps. I personally avoid downloading apps on Android as I don't want them to be cluttered in "My Apps" section of Google Play, and seeing the updates is annoying. It seems silly but I get embarrassed by the low quality spammy apps I have downloaded in the past. Also, having a browser based model would allow for developers to push new releases without an antiquated versioning system. It's inexcusable that Apple has developers wait around a week on average to get a new version to the app store. I appreciate that they have actual people review each app, but 90% of the time is spent in "Waiting for Review" and the actual review process doesn't take long. I don't know if the queue is by design, but it seems excessive.
Agustus 11y ago
If anyone from Pixite is reading this, do what the good ones do with their logos, through the company logo on the app logo. For your ease, please compare these graphics before and after: http://i.imgur.com/lMwL3kh.png?1 http://i.imgur.com/lMwL3kh.png?1 Before shows no brand awareness, the after develops brand awareness.
- epmatsw 11y ago
  It sounds (and is) shallow, but I wouldn't download an app with the after icons. It looks cheap and distracts from the icon that matters. Also backing that up, I have only 3 apps not hidden in folders which do the double icon thing: ESPN, Marvel, and another app which is mid-rebrand.
- stordoff 11y ago
  I find the latter drives me away from apps - it looks cheap, and signals to me (rightly or wrongly) that the app isn't good enough to stand on its own.
dba7dba 11y ago
Few lessons I can draw from here. This is another case of if something is too-good-to-be-true (make millions with little or no capital investment up front), it is indeed too-good. If there's a low barrier to entry, you can bet the competition will grow fierce very quickly. We have a huge player at top that is collecting most of the benefits while the much smaller players (more and more) below are competing for ever smaller slice of the pie. And the slice was quite small to begin with, because there were thousands and thousands of fellow coders who were doing the same thing you were doing. Lock-in is bad. As a consumer. And also as a vendor.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
arielm 11y ago
I agree with other comments that competing in a global economy requires a great app, but what it also requires is running the business that created that app like a real company. That means more than just building a great app. Developers that understand this are able to make a living on the app store while those that wait for the store to magically make their app successful don't. As the VC markets cool down we'll those companies that didn't build a company around their apps fail more. I wrote about this here: https://arielmichaeli.com/making-apps-for-love-and-profit-3b2a18743d7#.3abd0euo1 https://arielmichaeli.com/making-apps-for-love-and-profit-3b... I personally think what's happening now is the market maturing. In the long term this will lead to more stability for those who know how to compete.
dj_doh 11y ago
I agree with most comments here. App market maturing, user behavior maturing. It was always going to happen. Fart apps could only sustain so long:) Here's my 2 cents - Apple could introduce an Indie category/sub-categories. Community could come up with a distinctive micro-icon that represents something as an indie app. Sort of like the tiny Zynga dog icon you see in their apps. Once again, Apple could introduce apps to be flagged as indie by its users. Refine search results by this flag. I think Apple does their job of promoting really cool indie apps and games. But it has to be outstanding or novel enough for them to pitch it forward.

137 points by gpresot 11y ago

But the App Store’s middle class is small and shrinking. Apple may not realize it now, but this is an existential threat to iOS's near-dominance of the mobile device market.

draw_down 11y ago
Only if someone else manages to make a better app store and ecosystem. I would love for that to happen but I don't see it any time soon. As many problems as Apple's app stores have, they're the best ones. Which is depressing in its own right.
- cageface 11y ago
  This hurts Apple more than it hurts Android because the greater quality and diversity of iOS apps has long been a selling point for their devices. Apple needs this differentiating factor more than ever now that Android and Apple phones are now so close in terms of hardware quality and OS polish. Apple has done a lot to make lives better for iOS developers in the last few years. Why they can't invest some of that energy into making the app store a less hostile place for smaller players is a mystery.
  - curt15 11y ago
    >Apple needs this differentiating factor more than ever now that Android and Apple phones are now so close in terms of hardware quality and OS polish. Apple still wields a massive security trump card, especially when pitching to enterprises, because with the possible exception of the Nexus, no Android device comes with any commitment by the OEM to providing timely security patches.
    - cageface 11y ago
      I'm not convinced that the average user cares much about this, at least not yet. But it's true that at least for the moment Apple has a distinct advantage here.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]

aschearer 11y ago

To compete in a global marketplace with no barrier to entry it's not enough to simply ship software. Apps are commodities. You've got to create something with unique value. Probably that means doing something technically difficult or new.

increment_i 11y ago
I was going to say exactly the same thing. Once the initial novelty of app stores wore off, only the shitty economics behind them were left to bare: - The barrier to entry is so low as to be non-existent. We haven't seen a mass distribution channel with entry barriers this low since the lemonade stand. - Since the above point forces most participants in the market to now compete mostly on price, the race to the bottom of the last decade or so has raised a generation of consumers who now expect software to be free. - The subtle friction of finding and installing apps has led the average person to basically not bother at all, as we now know most people install zero apps per month. The lions share is now exclusively the domain of those with ridiculous marketing budgets and iffy business practices. I'm just not sure exactly where we are on the technology curve of App Stores. Are we in the trough of sorrow, where a new horizon of viability and sustainability coupled with lowered expectations is just around the corner? Or will we look back at the App Stores as the AOL of the 2010's? I'd love to hear opinions on the subject.
- zem 11y ago
  > The subtle friction of finding and installing apps has led the average person to basically not bother at all, as we now know most people install zero apps per month. don't forget the subtle friction of having to pay for stuff, which is another factor triggering the race-to-free.
  - increment_i 11y ago
    True, but again this ties into the first point about the marginal cost of producing apps being basically zero, thus they hold little value to anyone. Especially when the stock OS apps do nearly everything the average, non-niche consumer wants to do with a mobile device. You accept the friction of paying for a porterhouse steak because no butcher could sell them for less than the marginal cost of producing them and remain viable. Since the marginal cost of producing apps is (essentially) nothing, it's no surprise almost nobody can resist the downward pressure and make a buck off apps.

nsxwolf 11y ago

Once it got to the point that searching for my apps by name returned the apps of larger competitors, I knew it was time to bail on my silly hobby.

antiviral 11y ago
And this is the root of the problem- lack of discoverability for apps. Once you have several thousand apps (not to mention 1MM+), it becomes exceedingly difficult to find apps that are relevant to you. Someone might create a better app than the one you have on your phone, or one that you don't even realize you need, but how will you know about it? If you can only rely on the App Store rankings and search engine, you are going to have to spend alot of time looking through irrelevant results- most people don't have that kind of time. The result is (as brought up in the article) that app developers need more sophisticated 'growth-hacking' techniques outside of the ecosystem, which tend to be hit or miss depending on some degree of luck. There have been several app discovery platforms like AppGratis and Chomp, but Apple has shut them all down. Apple may have wanted to preserve the Appstore as the single authority on their apps, but now they have created a more dangerous, and possibly existential crisis for themselves- irrelevance of the app ecosystem. Why should I create apps (or invest in app developers) if my chance of success is less than 0.1%? As a consumer, I may still buy Apple devices, but it will be less because of the great apps, which will become increasingly scarce.
Agustus 11y ago
When the roll out of ios 7 or 8 occurred, the games on the first week at the app store were ridiculous cheesy items. It made the case that the back end at Apple was not cared for. Looking at this weeks AppStore front page offerings, a lot of them were from the previous week's AppStore offerings; no change essentially. I have slowly stopped going to the store as a source for anything. What I need is a web page that tells me where to go for XYZ App, who has the newest option, and how much it costs. I bought Assembly the week it came out because it addressed a need of mine for basic graphic design, simply done. Then, I want to say the week after, it was free on the AppStore. I have been burned three times so far by jumping on something only to see it released for free a few weeks later. I AM LOOKING AT YOU ALTO's JOURNEY. Ultimately, we should all learn from Rovio's trajectory: 1. One-hit wonder 2. Ramp up to find more customers 3. Sales from new customers goes down as saturation sets in 4. New product fails to deliver 5. Turn on existing customers to have them pay a monthly fee to deliver a stable income. Look at the DayOne's App movement on the AppStore (I love this app, but unfortunately I know they will move to a revenue model after my three years of using their app).

hellbanner 11y ago

Can we talk about how we educate users on what a "webapp" is? In the last few years I've shown potential clients, friends and strangers webapps and they've asked "Oh neat.. but is there an app? Where can I download it?" or something similar. This is very frustrating because it encourages walled-garden..

rokhayakebe 11y ago
Consumers are not choosing between web apps and native apps. The problem is Path to Discovery and Launch. Discovery: Google too is an Appstore to most people. You tell well educated people on Desktop to go to Facebook and they do this: Google.com -> Click Search Bar -> Type Facebook -> Click First Link. No matter what first link is. The appstore serves the same purpose to this group. Launch: If you removed most app icons on people's phone and replace them with web app bookmarks, many will not know the difference. This is a shortcut for them.
- peterkelly 11y ago
  Funny story about that... there was an incident where a news article that mentioned Facebook ended up being the #1 result for the keyword on Google. The comments section was inundated with complaints from people who said they couldn't log in demanding the "old facebook" back: http://readwrite.com/2010/02/11/how_google_failed_internet_meme http://readwrite.com/2010/02/11/how_google_failed_internet_m...
stcredzero 11y ago
Did you find out why? Were any of them burned by bad webapp interfaces? Were any of them burned by their webapp getting an "unwelcome update?" Were any of them burned by crappy behavior under limited connectivity? (That one has happened to me a lot with web apps on an iPhone.) I suspect that the problems of small app developers are much the same as guys on dating sites. All of the discoverability is implemented and controlled by one entity who doesn't depend on your success specifically to make money. They only need just enough success to keep the whole thing running. I wish now that Jobs had gotten his way in the beginning, and all of the apps would be web apps, and discoverability would be through web links and search engines.

bko 11y ago

Is there any reason there can't be a browser experience that relies on data as well as some cached data? Browsers are getting better at detecting native gestures common in most apps and I know a lot of internet content can be cached. Won't this eventually replace the app store as it's easier, no one would take a cut and there'd be less barriers to trying new services? I think there is some reluctance in people downloading apps. I personally avoid downloading apps on Android as I don't want them to be cluttered in "My Apps" section of Google Play, and seeing the updates is annoying. It seems silly but I get embarrassed by the low quality spammy apps I have downloaded in the past. Also, having a browser based model would allow for developers to push new releases without an antiquated versioning system. It's inexcusable that Apple has developers wait around a week on average to get a new version to the app store. I appreciate that they have actual people review each app, but 90% of the time is spent in "Waiting for Review" and the actual review process doesn't take long. I don't know if the queue is by design, but it seems excessive.

Agustus 11y ago

If anyone from Pixite is reading this, do what the good ones do with their logos, through the company logo on the app logo. For your ease, please compare these graphics before and after: http://i.imgur.com/lMwL3kh.png?1 http://i.imgur.com/lMwL3kh.png?1 Before shows no brand awareness, the after develops brand awareness.

epmatsw 11y ago
It sounds (and is) shallow, but I wouldn't download an app with the after icons. It looks cheap and distracts from the icon that matters. Also backing that up, I have only 3 apps not hidden in folders which do the double icon thing: ESPN, Marvel, and another app which is mid-rebrand.
stordoff 11y ago
I find the latter drives me away from apps - it looks cheap, and signals to me (rightly or wrongly) that the app isn't good enough to stand on its own.

dba7dba 11y ago

Few lessons I can draw from here. This is another case of if something is too-good-to-be-true (make millions with little or no capital investment up front), it is indeed too-good. If there's a low barrier to entry, you can bet the competition will grow fierce very quickly. We have a huge player at top that is collecting most of the benefits while the much smaller players (more and more) below are competing for ever smaller slice of the pie. And the slice was quite small to begin with, because there were thousands and thousands of fellow coders who were doing the same thing you were doing. Lock-in is bad. As a consumer. And also as a vendor.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

arielm 11y ago

I agree with other comments that competing in a global economy requires a great app, but what it also requires is running the business that created that app like a real company. That means more than just building a great app. Developers that understand this are able to make a living on the app store while those that wait for the store to magically make their app successful don't. As the VC markets cool down we'll those companies that didn't build a company around their apps fail more. I wrote about this here: https://arielmichaeli.com/making-apps-for-love-and-profit-3b2a18743d7#.3abd0euo1 https://arielmichaeli.com/making-apps-for-love-and-profit-3b... I personally think what's happening now is the market maturing. In the long term this will lead to more stability for those who know how to compete.

dj_doh 11y ago

I agree with most comments here. App market maturing, user behavior maturing. It was always going to happen. Fart apps could only sustain so long:) Here's my 2 cents - Apple could introduce an Indie category/sub-categories. Community could come up with a distinctive micro-icon that represents something as an indie app. Sort of like the tiny Zynga dog icon you see in their apps. Once again, Apple could introduce apps to be flagged as indie by its users. Refine search results by this flag. I think Apple does their job of promoting really cool indie apps and games. But it has to be outstanding or novel enough for them to pitch it forward.