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Regarding skill sets. I have only been in software 12 years or so, but I noticed a type of tech 'gamble'. Basically, when you decided to learn something in te

Regarding skill sets. I have only been in software 12 years or so, but I noticed a type of tech 'gamble'. Basically, when you decided to learn something in tech you are basically gambling that the tech will last. In 2007 many faced a simple decision: AS3 or iOS. Supposed you chose AS3. Then, worked on it from 2009-2012, quite profitably. Currently the AS3 job outlook is horrific, and all that knowledge is a waste. Now, iOS people are skilled, wanted and are taking lead roles. (Oh yeah, now you are old). Want to learn GO? Be careful.

dredmorbius 11y ago
Quite. I like the "Tech Gamble" concept. May well borrow that. This also reminds me of a back-rationalisation I've seen for Linux adopting the penguin as mascot -- not the Australian zoo killer penguin story. Antarctic penguins, when deciding where and when to enter the water mill about on the edge of the ice. The problem is that the first one in is taking a significant risk -- leopard seals, which eat penguins, may be lurking. But once the brave pioneer takes the plunge (or rather more likely, is pushed, jostled, or slips in), the rest of the flock follows. There's safety in numbers ... and fish to eat. I see parallels with techies choosing skillsets.
adrianN 11y ago
I chose the things I learn not by what I think might be most profitable, but what I feel is most fun. If I wanted a job with boring but profitable technology I'd learn COBOL or MUMPS.
tuyguntn 11y ago
Why GO? (out of curiosity, because doing some production things in Go already and successfully)
- dredmorbius 11y ago
  I suspect it's just mentioned as flavour-of-the-day. Though a flavour with a talented and proven chef. Could as well be Haskell or ... honestly, I'm not keeping track so much any more.
mseebach 11y ago
There are gambles, yes, but they are microscopic compared to retraining from one kind of engineer to another. If you have n years of AS3 experience (n=7? Or what happened between 2012 and now?) and find yourself unable to compete with people with the same n years of iOS experience, I humbly submit that something else is wrong. Never mind that AS3 is a dialect of ECMAScript, which I hear is still used in a few remote pockets of the web, that hard things about programming isn't about the language and the framework, it's managing complexity. I struggle to see how retraining to iOS is going to take more than a few weeks of systematic reading and practising (possibly taken on your own time), and little more than a few months on the job to be on par with people who have several years of experience. But more important is all the stuff that isn't about programming at all: Being good at organising your work, communicating well, testing, making sure you understand the entirety requirements as they are intended and that your delivery fully satisfies the requirement etc etc. Someone with n years of programming experience should master those things, and these count very heavily when picking people for lead roles. Anyway, bottom line: the difficulty of switching from AS3 to iOS doesn't map to the difficulty of switching from nuclear engineering to environmental engineering.
spdy 11y ago
I agree that switching from nuclear scientist to something else might be hard but with programming languages after a certain amount of years the gamble is gone. The core concepts of every language are the same. If you acquired a certain amount of experience, switching is just looking for best practices in your new language. Of course it will take some time to ramp up but within a month you are somewhat productive within 3 months no one will see the difference. Its all about problem solving.
mathattack 11y ago
In up markets it's easy to say, "I'm a mobile developer" but in a down market, only iOS will do. You're right there are gambles. I see 4 ways to mitigate this: 1 - Live somewhere that has many companies or be prepared to move. 2 - Keep in contact periodically with everyone who respects your work. (Don't make the "Hey it's been 5 years" call one where you're asking for a favor) 3 - Always keep learning. 4 - Communicate in your customer's language. If you are strictly an ActionScript expert, you are very narrowly pegged if you haven't learned iOS on the side. But if the buyers of technology view you as "A mobile expert who makes brands come alive across many devices" then you can survive technology switches. 4.5 - Help others before you need help. In the grand scheme it's still better to be a laid off technology worker than a laid off steelworker. I still feel their pain though - it sucks to lose your job, especially if family is involved.
- dredmorbius 11y ago
  There's a professor, Economics at Harvard IIRC, who points out some telling characteristics of cities in this regard. Those with large numbers of smaller firms are far more creative in the long run than those with small numbers of large ones. Specific contrast were NYC and its garment district vs. the large industrial cities of Pittsburgh (steel) and Detroit (autos). Ironically, it's the cities which most successfully employ division of labour and assembly-line techniques which are penalised most harshly. Link in a sec.... Benjamin Chintz came up with the theory. Edward Glaeser is the lecturer. https://plus.google.com/104092656004159577193/posts/3uGHCweFxEy https://plus.google.com/104092656004159577193/posts/3uGHCweF... http://fixyt.com/watch?v=r3Mvz-Mg2_A http://fixyt.com/watch?v=r3Mvz-Mg2_A
turar 11y ago
Yep. Mid-to-late 1990s. Delphi vs Java. :)
- dredmorbius 11y ago
  Now there is a term I've not seen for a while.

dredmorbius 11y ago

Quite. I like the "Tech Gamble" concept. May well borrow that. This also reminds me of a back-rationalisation I've seen for Linux adopting the penguin as mascot -- not the Australian zoo killer penguin story. Antarctic penguins, when deciding where and when to enter the water mill about on the edge of the ice. The problem is that the first one in is taking a significant risk -- leopard seals, which eat penguins, may be lurking. But once the brave pioneer takes the plunge (or rather more likely, is pushed, jostled, or slips in), the rest of the flock follows. There's safety in numbers ... and fish to eat. I see parallels with techies choosing skillsets.

adrianN 11y ago

I chose the things I learn not by what I think might be most profitable, but what I feel is most fun. If I wanted a job with boring but profitable technology I'd learn COBOL or MUMPS.

tuyguntn 11y ago

Why GO? (out of curiosity, because doing some production things in Go already and successfully)

dredmorbius 11y ago
I suspect it's just mentioned as flavour-of-the-day. Though a flavour with a talented and proven chef. Could as well be Haskell or ... honestly, I'm not keeping track so much any more.

mseebach 11y ago

There are gambles, yes, but they are microscopic compared to retraining from one kind of engineer to another. If you have n years of AS3 experience (n=7? Or what happened between 2012 and now?) and find yourself unable to compete with people with the same n years of iOS experience, I humbly submit that something else is wrong. Never mind that AS3 is a dialect of ECMAScript, which I hear is still used in a few remote pockets of the web, that hard things about programming isn't about the language and the framework, it's managing complexity. I struggle to see how retraining to iOS is going to take more than a few weeks of systematic reading and practising (possibly taken on your own time), and little more than a few months on the job to be on par with people who have several years of experience. But more important is all the stuff that isn't about programming at all: Being good at organising your work, communicating well, testing, making sure you understand the entirety requirements as they are intended and that your delivery fully satisfies the requirement etc etc. Someone with n years of programming experience should master those things, and these count very heavily when picking people for lead roles. Anyway, bottom line: the difficulty of switching from AS3 to iOS doesn't map to the difficulty of switching from nuclear engineering to environmental engineering.

spdy 11y ago

I agree that switching from nuclear scientist to something else might be hard but with programming languages after a certain amount of years the gamble is gone. The core concepts of every language are the same. If you acquired a certain amount of experience, switching is just looking for best practices in your new language. Of course it will take some time to ramp up but within a month you are somewhat productive within 3 months no one will see the difference. Its all about problem solving.

mathattack 11y ago

In up markets it's easy to say, "I'm a mobile developer" but in a down market, only iOS will do. You're right there are gambles. I see 4 ways to mitigate this: 1 - Live somewhere that has many companies or be prepared to move. 2 - Keep in contact periodically with everyone who respects your work. (Don't make the "Hey it's been 5 years" call one where you're asking for a favor) 3 - Always keep learning. 4 - Communicate in your customer's language. If you are strictly an ActionScript expert, you are very narrowly pegged if you haven't learned iOS on the side. But if the buyers of technology view you as "A mobile expert who makes brands come alive across many devices" then you can survive technology switches. 4.5 - Help others before you need help. In the grand scheme it's still better to be a laid off technology worker than a laid off steelworker. I still feel their pain though - it sucks to lose your job, especially if family is involved.

dredmorbius 11y ago
There's a professor, Economics at Harvard IIRC, who points out some telling characteristics of cities in this regard. Those with large numbers of smaller firms are far more creative in the long run than those with small numbers of large ones. Specific contrast were NYC and its garment district vs. the large industrial cities of Pittsburgh (steel) and Detroit (autos). Ironically, it's the cities which most successfully employ division of labour and assembly-line techniques which are penalised most harshly. Link in a sec.... Benjamin Chintz came up with the theory. Edward Glaeser is the lecturer. https://plus.google.com/104092656004159577193/posts/3uGHCweFxEy https://plus.google.com/104092656004159577193/posts/3uGHCweF... http://fixyt.com/watch?v=r3Mvz-Mg2_A http://fixyt.com/watch?v=r3Mvz-Mg2_A

turar 11y ago

Yep. Mid-to-late 1990s. Delphi vs Java. :)

dredmorbius 11y ago
Now there is a term I've not seen for a while.