7 ms·

Anyone care to take a guess how much the 15TB version will cost?

by dcip6s 11y ago

bluedino 11y ago
10,000 USD?
- sp332 11y ago
  I don't see any SAS SSD's going for much less than $1,000/TB. Some of them are twice that! And I'm sure the density will let it command a premium by targeting users who really need more storage in tight spaces. My guess is $50,000.
  - userbinator 11y ago
    On the other hand, I still remember when hard drives (the spinning platter ones) reached the $1/GB mark ~10 years ago. Now high-end SSDs are there. A billion bits of storage costing $1 is pretty amazing, I think.
    - dorfsmay 11y ago
      Our brain thinks linear, technology grows exponentially. http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns
      - dahart 11y ago
        Kurzweil also claims, as the capstone final paragraph in this piece, that human life expectancy is on an exponential curve, which is false. Not just a little wrong, it's all the way wrong, and intentionally misleading, there's no possible way he doesn't know it's false. It's very easy to check the basic facts: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy. Lifespan for people who live past 20 (discounting infant mortality) has been around 70 for at least a thousand years. It's gone up a little in developed countries recently, but he intentionally uses only a small window of time, and includes infant mortality in his stats. If we eliminate all infant mortality, still nobody will live forever, and average lifespan will not be on an exponential curve. This intentionally misleading falsehood alone makes me doubt all the rest of his claims about exponential and double exponential trends. (And I don't doubt Moore, only the additional unsupported implications and loose associations that Kurzweil adds to Moore's law.)
        adrianN 11y ago
        I agree that the claim that lifespan is on an exponential curve is bogus. Modern medicine basically extended extremal lifespan up to the maximum attainable without fixing the underlying causes of aging and then stopped. There is for example some research that shows that the oldest woman's blood was derived from just two stem cells.[1] We currently don't have the technology to fix problems like that I disagree however that nobody alive today will live "forever". The technology that might allow us to fix aging is on an exponential curve, look for example at the cost of genome sequencing. So the time is ripe for some breakthrough results in aging research that actually address some causes of aging. [1] https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25458-blood-of-worlds-oldest-woman-hints-at-limits-of-life/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25458-blood-of-worlds...
        dahart 11y ago
        The tech you're talking about can't do anything for the living, it only has potential for the unborn. Either way, there is exactly zero evidence that it's already happening. Kurzweil's claim is pure fantasy.
        adrianN 11y ago
        This discussion is becoming way to off-topic here. But I was convinced by Aubrey de Grey's arguments, perhaps you will be too. He is easy enough to Google.
        dahart 11y ago
        So I took your advice and did Google Aubrey, I got his WP page first. It says he's into and wants to fund cryonics. I'm not a a biologist, but that tickles my spidey sense. Any remaining hope I had for cryogenics was firmly buried after listening to this: http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/354/mistakes-were-made http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/354/m... The second thing I got was this: http://www2.technologyreview.com/sens/docs/estepetal.pdf http://www2.technologyreview.com/sens/docs/estepetal.pdf The tl;dr summary is: However, given the recent successes and highly emotional nature of life extension research, Aubrey de Grey is not the first, nor will he be the last, to promote a hopelessly insufficient but ably camouflaged pipe-dream to the hopeful many. With this in mind, we hope our list provides a general line of demarcation between increasingly sophisticated life extension pretense, and real science and engineering, so that we can focus honestly on the significant challenges before us.
    - robbiemitchell 11y ago
      Hell, I remember reading PC Mag and being SHOCKED about a 4GB HD that cost a few hundred bucks. (Also shocked that I subscribed to PC Mag.)
      - ryao 11y ago
        I was shocked when 200GB drives were called drivezilla and cost $400.
        cm2187 11y ago
        And I was shocked when Seagate announced a 8TB HDD for $200..
        MichaelBurge 11y ago
        I'm shocked every time I open Newegg. Having hardware with at least 256MB of RAM, 100 Mhz clock speed CPUs, 10Gb hard drives that works with such high reliability is amazing. You have to think, even a single screwed up instruction or corrupted bit could bring down the OS. How many millions of pixels are on my two LCD screens, and they are each individually controllable and none have failed in 8 years?
  - ashmud 11y ago
    About 20 years ago, I worked on a project replacing/rewriting servers and their management software for a manufacturer. They had an already aging *nix system (circa 1990). Story went that not long before we came in for the project they had to replace a HDD that was out of production to the tune of about $50k.
- tim333 11y ago
  Samsung's 2TB SSD is $860 so maybe something like that. http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-2-5-Inch-SATA-Internal-MZ-7KE2T0BW/dp/B010QD6RX4 http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-2-5-Inch-SATA-Internal-MZ-7KE2...
  - cm2187 11y ago
    That's a consumer SSD. The 16TB looks like an enterprise SSD (much higher endurance).
    - ricardobeat 11y ago
      Or not https://www.techpowerup.com/mobile/220432/high-end-slc-ssds-no-more-reliable-than-mlc-ssds-google-study.html https://www.techpowerup.com/mobile/220432/high-end-slc-ssds-...
      - cm2187 11y ago
        Well, I doubt this study will make Samsung charge less for enterprise drives
    - pilsetnieks 11y ago
      You could extrapolate from the PM863 series which seems to be the closest to this: http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-Pm863-Internal-Solid-State/dp/B014VZGJN6/ http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-Pm863-Internal-Solid-State/dp/...
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
ryao 11y ago
The projected cost when it was announced was $5000.

Anyone care to take a guess how much the 15TB version will cost?

by dcip6s 11y ago

Anyone care to take a guess how much the 15TB version will cost?

bluedino 11y ago

10,000 USD?

sp332 11y ago
I don't see any SAS SSD's going for much less than $1,000/TB. Some of them are twice that! And I'm sure the density will let it command a premium by targeting users who really need more storage in tight spaces. My guess is $50,000.
- userbinator 11y ago
  On the other hand, I still remember when hard drives (the spinning platter ones) reached the $1/GB mark ~10 years ago. Now high-end SSDs are there. A billion bits of storage costing $1 is pretty amazing, I think.
  - dorfsmay 11y ago
    Our brain thinks linear, technology grows exponentially. http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns
    - dahart 11y ago
      Kurzweil also claims, as the capstone final paragraph in this piece, that human life expectancy is on an exponential curve, which is false. Not just a little wrong, it's all the way wrong, and intentionally misleading, there's no possible way he doesn't know it's false. It's very easy to check the basic facts: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy. Lifespan for people who live past 20 (discounting infant mortality) has been around 70 for at least a thousand years. It's gone up a little in developed countries recently, but he intentionally uses only a small window of time, and includes infant mortality in his stats. If we eliminate all infant mortality, still nobody will live forever, and average lifespan will not be on an exponential curve. This intentionally misleading falsehood alone makes me doubt all the rest of his claims about exponential and double exponential trends. (And I don't doubt Moore, only the additional unsupported implications and loose associations that Kurzweil adds to Moore's law.)
      - adrianN 11y ago
        I agree that the claim that lifespan is on an exponential curve is bogus. Modern medicine basically extended extremal lifespan up to the maximum attainable without fixing the underlying causes of aging and then stopped. There is for example some research that shows that the oldest woman's blood was derived from just two stem cells.[1] We currently don't have the technology to fix problems like that I disagree however that nobody alive today will live "forever". The technology that might allow us to fix aging is on an exponential curve, look for example at the cost of genome sequencing. So the time is ripe for some breakthrough results in aging research that actually address some causes of aging. [1] https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25458-blood-of-worlds-oldest-woman-hints-at-limits-of-life/ https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25458-blood-of-worlds...
        dahart 11y ago
        The tech you're talking about can't do anything for the living, it only has potential for the unborn. Either way, there is exactly zero evidence that it's already happening. Kurzweil's claim is pure fantasy.
        adrianN 11y ago
        This discussion is becoming way to off-topic here. But I was convinced by Aubrey de Grey's arguments, perhaps you will be too. He is easy enough to Google.
        dahart 11y ago
        So I took your advice and did Google Aubrey, I got his WP page first. It says he's into and wants to fund cryonics. I'm not a a biologist, but that tickles my spidey sense. Any remaining hope I had for cryogenics was firmly buried after listening to this: http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/354/mistakes-were-made http://www.thisamericanlife.org/radio-archives/episode/354/m... The second thing I got was this: http://www2.technologyreview.com/sens/docs/estepetal.pdf http://www2.technologyreview.com/sens/docs/estepetal.pdf The tl;dr summary is: However, given the recent successes and highly emotional nature of life extension research, Aubrey de Grey is not the first, nor will he be the last, to promote a hopelessly insufficient but ably camouflaged pipe-dream to the hopeful many. With this in mind, we hope our list provides a general line of demarcation between increasingly sophisticated life extension pretense, and real science and engineering, so that we can focus honestly on the significant challenges before us.
  - robbiemitchell 11y ago
    Hell, I remember reading PC Mag and being SHOCKED about a 4GB HD that cost a few hundred bucks. (Also shocked that I subscribed to PC Mag.)
    - ryao 11y ago
      I was shocked when 200GB drives were called drivezilla and cost $400.
      - cm2187 11y ago
        And I was shocked when Seagate announced a 8TB HDD for $200..
        MichaelBurge 11y ago
        I'm shocked every time I open Newegg. Having hardware with at least 256MB of RAM, 100 Mhz clock speed CPUs, 10Gb hard drives that works with such high reliability is amazing. You have to think, even a single screwed up instruction or corrupted bit could bring down the OS. How many millions of pixels are on my two LCD screens, and they are each individually controllable and none have failed in 8 years?
- ashmud 11y ago
  About 20 years ago, I worked on a project replacing/rewriting servers and their management software for a manufacturer. They had an already aging *nix system (circa 1990). Story went that not long before we came in for the project they had to replace a HDD that was out of production to the tune of about $50k.
tim333 11y ago
Samsung's 2TB SSD is $860 so maybe something like that. http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-2-5-Inch-SATA-Internal-MZ-7KE2T0BW/dp/B010QD6RX4 http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-2-5-Inch-SATA-Internal-MZ-7KE2...
- cm2187 11y ago
  That's a consumer SSD. The 16TB looks like an enterprise SSD (much higher endurance).
  - ricardobeat 11y ago
    Or not https://www.techpowerup.com/mobile/220432/high-end-slc-ssds-no-more-reliable-than-mlc-ssds-google-study.html https://www.techpowerup.com/mobile/220432/high-end-slc-ssds-...
    - cm2187 11y ago
      Well, I doubt this study will make Samsung charge less for enterprise drives
  - pilsetnieks 11y ago
    You could extrapolate from the PM863 series which seems to be the closest to this: http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-Pm863-Internal-Solid-State/dp/B014VZGJN6/ http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-Pm863-Internal-Solid-State/dp/...

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

ryao 11y ago

The projected cost when it was announced was $5000.