2 ms·
The future is worth less, and typically discounted at a rate of around 4% a year. So 25 years out is around 36%, 50 years is 13%, 100 years is 1.6%, 200 years i
by fennecfoxen 11y ago
The future is worth less, and typically discounted at a rate of around 4% a year. So 25 years out is around 36%, 50 years is 13%, 100 years is 1.6%, 200 years is 0.02%...
If that seems a little extreme then consider using 1816's technology to plow a field, travel to Europe, send a message around the world, or treat a cancer patient, and consider whether or not it's 500x better or cheaper or faster. Remember that the hot new technology of the day is the steamboat but transatlantic voyages, Ireland to New York, still run on sail and might take around, say, ~25 days.
- mirimir 11y agoSure. But I was commenting on the concept of discounting future costs in present-value calculations. A 4% discount rate is about right for strontium-90, with a half-life of 28.9 years. But plutonium-239 has a half-life of 24.1 thousand years, so maybe a lower discount rate is appropriate.