7 ms·

It's always 'climate change'. Dozens of megafauna disappear? 'climate change'. Whole tribes with fortifications suddenly disappear? 'climate change'. Wholesale

by cfcef 11y ago

It's always 'climate change'. Dozens of megafauna disappear? 'climate change'. Whole tribes with fortifications suddenly disappear? 'climate change'. Wholesale population replacement? 'climate change'. It's our age's "peoples don't migrate, pots do". It's gotten to the point that when I read about the latest population genetics result show introgression or replacement and they invoke 'climate change', I no longer know if it's a case where it could be climate change or just the usual total refusal to speculate about pre-historic warfare and predation.

galago 11y ago
These things aren't mutually exclusive. I think there are events that occurred around periods of climate change, which may have caused changes in animal or human migration. This could lead to warfare, or even more simply disease transmission.
- orionblastar 11y ago
  We see climate change affecting the Middle East as it dries up sources of water and forces people to migrate or move to the populated cities that have a water source. It has also caused a refugee crisis as people can't get food or water and flee their nation to go some place else to live. It has also allowed terrorists to rise up in Syria and Iraq and take over weakened cities that had water sources dry up and people left unable to defend those cities from takeover by terrorists. So I imagine back during the Ice Age, people moved around as well as struggled to survive. Some lost their food and water sources and turned to warfare on other tribes to survive. People who hung out in southern Europe where the climate was not too bad had a better chance of survival than people who lived on ice sheets up north.
  - jessaustin 11y ago
    Do you realize that this is basically just apologetics for the reign of W? The reason that there are armed conflicts in Iraq is because USA broke that nation, and the decades it will take to heal have not yet elapsed. The reason there are armed conflicts in Syria is because it's next to Iraq, and also various parties have schemed to weaken the (admittedly awful) incumbent regime. The desert isn't new. It's not as though fifty years ago these places were covered in rain forests. It's not as though ISIS have less need for water than whomever they've replaced.
    - danudey 11y ago
      Not rain forests, but you don't need to be a rain forest to have a water supply. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_crisis_in_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_crisis_in_Iran
      - PhantomGremlin 11y ago
        I think this chart https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iran_Population_%281880-2005%29.JPG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iran_Population_%281880-2... might have a tad to do with it. More people means more demand for water.
        philipov 11y ago
        And "climate change" is a misleading word to call resource exhaustion caused by human populations outgrowing the carrying capacity of their environment. It's as if the humans are simply passive victims of external circumstances.
    - w84t1me 11y ago
      Because the middle east was a sea of peace, social stability and contentment beforehand? The Iraq war was a disaster, but let's not kid ourselves about a simplistic root cause.
      - markdown 11y ago
        > Because the middle east was a sea of peace, social stability and contentment beforehand? Relative to now, yes it most certainly was.
        bprieto 11y ago
        Except for the Kuwait invasion and Gulf War, and between 500.000 and 1.5M people dead in the 9 years of Iran-Irak war in the 80s, and tens of thousand palestinians killed by jordanians in the 70s, and several Israel-Arab wars since 1947, and Lebanon civil war.
  - cup 11y ago
    To suggest the Middle Easts problems are a result of climate change and now western imperialism and colonialism is strangely misguided.
    - orionblastar 11y ago
      http://time.com/4113801/climate-change-terrorism/ http://time.com/4113801/climate-change-terrorism/ Not the only factor, but one of the factors.
  - tim333 11y ago
    Seriously? The refugee crisis is caused by climate and not by the fighting? Seems a bit unlikely.
    - Arnt 11y ago
      You could say that the Assad regime hobbled along, but when that long drought added extra strain, society couldn't cope and everything broke badly.
  - jmadsen 11y ago
    This should not have been down-voted. Although he may spin it a little further than it is worth, in fact before all the latest events of the last several years started, the Middle East was the area determined to be most at risk of a "major war" specifically because of issues with international water rights, water amounts & the worsening effect climate change was having on it. It was boring think-tank material, not the stuff you read in the paper every day, but it was a top concern among people who considered long-term policy.
    - jermy 11y ago
      A friend wrote a blog post at http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/hannah-griffiths/isis-climate-change_b_7722476.html http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/hannah-griffiths/isis-climat... whilst in Iraq, which refers to the Columbia University paper at http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.full http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.full It's very much a picture of the drought causing people to move to overstretched towns and cities to look for work, and rising discontent with their government as a result. In some areas, mercenary work might be the only paid work available.
- WalterBright 11y ago
  We've had nearly continuous warfare for the last 2,000 years. I've read a number of history books on it, and none have suggested climate change as being a cause, or even a factor.
  - nindalf 11y ago
    You wouldn't ever see "the climate changed so we moved" as a cause here, because climate change takes a few generations to fully manifest. People without written records and good observation tools wouldn't be able to spot or record the climate change. But such people would certainly notice when agricultural output drops and decide to move to places where the situation is better. Such wholesale migrations have been the cause of many conflicts. Steppe nomads have migrated to Europe on many occasions over the last two thousand years and each time it has led to war. Even within Europe this sort of migration was observed. For example, Julius Caesar fought Germanic tribes who had decided to migrate to Gaul because the grass was greener on that side of the Rhine.
    - WalterBright 11y ago
      Populations regularly outgrow their food supply and migrate. That isn't climate change. They also exhaust their land with poor farming practices, that isn't climate change, either.
      - restalis 11y ago
        "They also exhaust their land with poor farming practices, that isn't climate change, either." The climate change adepts will argue with you on this one, as human induced (micro)climate change is still considered a climate change.
  - nkurz 11y ago
    This article (written in backlash to some recent high profile claims of conflicts caused by climate change) suggests that blaming climate for human conflicts is nothing new: It’s that they promote a kind of climate reductionism, one that carries echoes of the deterministic theories that were once popular during the second half of the 19th century. Consider, for instance, John William Draper’s History of the American Civil War, published in 1867. Draper, who served as president of the medical college of New York University from 1850 to 1873, was a professor of chemistry and an architect of the so-called “conflict model” of science and religion, bringing a scientist’s eye to his task. On the very first page of his book, he announced “the great truth that societies advance in a preordained and inevitable course” guided by “uncontrollable causes.” Chief among these was the climate. http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/04/stop-saying-climate-change-causes-war-paris-cop-21-bernie-sanders/ http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/04/stop-saying-climate-chan...
justinator 11y ago
I mean, reason why humans left Africa, walked upright and grew big brains? Climate change. Think about how many times you control your local micro climate around you. Think about how many times you talk about the weather with whomever. It's a big force in the human condition.
- restalis 11y ago
  "Think about how many times you talk about the weather with whomever." About as many as the moments in which we have to talk with somebody but lack something better to break the ice! __________ P.S.: I've read so far about a number of possible cases for which humans started to walk upright and none had climate change as a primary cause.
- agumonkey 11y ago
  The day to day thermodynamics.
antocv 11y ago
I agree, it is kind of obvious, wherever human appear, megafauna disappear, from Europe to South America. Oh must be climate change. It could be climate change, but that doesnt explain anything, since its so far reaching and general. Maybe this latest global warming/climate change, is not the first time humans had an impact on climate? Its certainly not the first time any species had an impact on climate, looking at you cyanobacteria.
- oblio 11y ago
  It's hard to believe that with such a low population, no industry and no agriculture humans could have made a real impact on climate change.
  - jinushaun 11y ago
    You're confusing anthropogenic climate change (pollution) with natural climate change (end of ice age).
    - oblio 11y ago
      I was replying to: > Maybe this latest global warming/climate change, is not the first time humans had an impact on climate? Its certainly not the first time any species had an impact on climate, looking at you cyanobacteria.
  - antocv 11y ago
    Pre agriculture society has built Goḱbi Tepe, and other "stone age monuments", its not far fetched that they diverted rivers and thus caused desertification of some area which may had other effects on global climate. Wasnt the Sahara a swamp pre-agriculture? Also, the "pre-agriculture = low population" is just a speculation, it could have been far higher population in some areas and we wouldnt have any evidence for it today. See for example Americas before conquestadors, there were areas with millions of people, and not all doing agriculture or even horticulture. The best areas which could have supported a very high population have been destroyed, all the best areas were taken by "civilized" war people, and now the only nomads/hunter gatherers left are in far-reached shitty areas.
mcv 11y ago
Is the end of an ice age not a form of climate change then? A fact of the matter is that a lot of evolution is driven by constantly changing climates. The supervolcanos and asteroid impact that killed the dinosaurs also did so through climate change: too much dust in the air and too little sunlight made the land colder, killed much of the plants, and made resources more scarce. Small warm-blooded animals suddenly had the edge. It is a bit of a catch-all, though. Just "climate change" doesn't tell you much. Receding glaciers and more accessible land tells you a lot more.
- arethuza 11y ago
  And its not like the last ice age just neatly stopped - there was a significant cooling period during the Younger Dryas which wasn't quite a bad as a full Ice Age but was still pretty severe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas
kafkaesq 11y ago
It's always 'climate change'. No -- if you read their arguments more closely, what they suspect is that some populations were able to adapt to sudden climate change, while others were not. So really, it's about adaptability.

by cfcef 11y ago

galago 11y ago

These things aren't mutually exclusive. I think there are events that occurred around periods of climate change, which may have caused changes in animal or human migration. This could lead to warfare, or even more simply disease transmission.

orionblastar 11y ago
We see climate change affecting the Middle East as it dries up sources of water and forces people to migrate or move to the populated cities that have a water source. It has also caused a refugee crisis as people can't get food or water and flee their nation to go some place else to live. It has also allowed terrorists to rise up in Syria and Iraq and take over weakened cities that had water sources dry up and people left unable to defend those cities from takeover by terrorists. So I imagine back during the Ice Age, people moved around as well as struggled to survive. Some lost their food and water sources and turned to warfare on other tribes to survive. People who hung out in southern Europe where the climate was not too bad had a better chance of survival than people who lived on ice sheets up north.
- jessaustin 11y ago
  Do you realize that this is basically just apologetics for the reign of W? The reason that there are armed conflicts in Iraq is because USA broke that nation, and the decades it will take to heal have not yet elapsed. The reason there are armed conflicts in Syria is because it's next to Iraq, and also various parties have schemed to weaken the (admittedly awful) incumbent regime. The desert isn't new. It's not as though fifty years ago these places were covered in rain forests. It's not as though ISIS have less need for water than whomever they've replaced.
  - danudey 11y ago
    Not rain forests, but you don't need to be a rain forest to have a water supply. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_crisis_in_Iran https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_crisis_in_Iran
    - PhantomGremlin 11y ago
      I think this chart https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iran_Population_%281880-2005%29.JPG https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Iran_Population_%281880-2... might have a tad to do with it. More people means more demand for water.
      - philipov 11y ago
        And "climate change" is a misleading word to call resource exhaustion caused by human populations outgrowing the carrying capacity of their environment. It's as if the humans are simply passive victims of external circumstances.
  - w84t1me 11y ago
    Because the middle east was a sea of peace, social stability and contentment beforehand? The Iraq war was a disaster, but let's not kid ourselves about a simplistic root cause.
    - markdown 11y ago
      > Because the middle east was a sea of peace, social stability and contentment beforehand? Relative to now, yes it most certainly was.
      - bprieto 11y ago
        Except for the Kuwait invasion and Gulf War, and between 500.000 and 1.5M people dead in the 9 years of Iran-Irak war in the 80s, and tens of thousand palestinians killed by jordanians in the 70s, and several Israel-Arab wars since 1947, and Lebanon civil war.
- cup 11y ago
  To suggest the Middle Easts problems are a result of climate change and now western imperialism and colonialism is strangely misguided.
  - orionblastar 11y ago
    http://time.com/4113801/climate-change-terrorism/ http://time.com/4113801/climate-change-terrorism/ Not the only factor, but one of the factors.
- tim333 11y ago
  Seriously? The refugee crisis is caused by climate and not by the fighting? Seems a bit unlikely.
  - Arnt 11y ago
    You could say that the Assad regime hobbled along, but when that long drought added extra strain, society couldn't cope and everything broke badly.
- jmadsen 11y ago
  This should not have been down-voted. Although he may spin it a little further than it is worth, in fact before all the latest events of the last several years started, the Middle East was the area determined to be most at risk of a "major war" specifically because of issues with international water rights, water amounts & the worsening effect climate change was having on it. It was boring think-tank material, not the stuff you read in the paper every day, but it was a top concern among people who considered long-term policy.
  - jermy 11y ago
    A friend wrote a blog post at http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/hannah-griffiths/isis-climate-change_b_7722476.html http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/hannah-griffiths/isis-climat... whilst in Iraq, which refers to the Columbia University paper at http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.full http://www.pnas.org/content/112/11/3241.full It's very much a picture of the drought causing people to move to overstretched towns and cities to look for work, and rising discontent with their government as a result. In some areas, mercenary work might be the only paid work available.
WalterBright 11y ago
We've had nearly continuous warfare for the last 2,000 years. I've read a number of history books on it, and none have suggested climate change as being a cause, or even a factor.
- nindalf 11y ago
  You wouldn't ever see "the climate changed so we moved" as a cause here, because climate change takes a few generations to fully manifest. People without written records and good observation tools wouldn't be able to spot or record the climate change. But such people would certainly notice when agricultural output drops and decide to move to places where the situation is better. Such wholesale migrations have been the cause of many conflicts. Steppe nomads have migrated to Europe on many occasions over the last two thousand years and each time it has led to war. Even within Europe this sort of migration was observed. For example, Julius Caesar fought Germanic tribes who had decided to migrate to Gaul because the grass was greener on that side of the Rhine.
  - WalterBright 11y ago
    Populations regularly outgrow their food supply and migrate. That isn't climate change. They also exhaust their land with poor farming practices, that isn't climate change, either.
    - restalis 11y ago
      "They also exhaust their land with poor farming practices, that isn't climate change, either." The climate change adepts will argue with you on this one, as human induced (micro)climate change is still considered a climate change.
- nkurz 11y ago
  This article (written in backlash to some recent high profile claims of conflicts caused by climate change) suggests that blaming climate for human conflicts is nothing new: It’s that they promote a kind of climate reductionism, one that carries echoes of the deterministic theories that were once popular during the second half of the 19th century. Consider, for instance, John William Draper’s History of the American Civil War, published in 1867. Draper, who served as president of the medical college of New York University from 1850 to 1873, was a professor of chemistry and an architect of the so-called “conflict model” of science and religion, bringing a scientist’s eye to his task. On the very first page of his book, he announced “the great truth that societies advance in a preordained and inevitable course” guided by “uncontrollable causes.” Chief among these was the climate. http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/04/stop-saying-climate-change-causes-war-paris-cop-21-bernie-sanders/ http://foreignpolicy.com/2015/12/04/stop-saying-climate-chan...

justinator 11y ago

I mean, reason why humans left Africa, walked upright and grew big brains? Climate change. Think about how many times you control your local micro climate around you. Think about how many times you talk about the weather with whomever. It's a big force in the human condition.

restalis 11y ago
"Think about how many times you talk about the weather with whomever." About as many as the moments in which we have to talk with somebody but lack something better to break the ice! __________ P.S.: I've read so far about a number of possible cases for which humans started to walk upright and none had climate change as a primary cause.
agumonkey 11y ago
The day to day thermodynamics.

antocv 11y ago

I agree, it is kind of obvious, wherever human appear, megafauna disappear, from Europe to South America. Oh must be climate change. It could be climate change, but that doesnt explain anything, since its so far reaching and general. Maybe this latest global warming/climate change, is not the first time humans had an impact on climate? Its certainly not the first time any species had an impact on climate, looking at you cyanobacteria.

oblio 11y ago
It's hard to believe that with such a low population, no industry and no agriculture humans could have made a real impact on climate change.
- jinushaun 11y ago
  You're confusing anthropogenic climate change (pollution) with natural climate change (end of ice age).
  - oblio 11y ago
    I was replying to: > Maybe this latest global warming/climate change, is not the first time humans had an impact on climate? Its certainly not the first time any species had an impact on climate, looking at you cyanobacteria.
- antocv 11y ago
  Pre agriculture society has built Goḱbi Tepe, and other "stone age monuments", its not far fetched that they diverted rivers and thus caused desertification of some area which may had other effects on global climate. Wasnt the Sahara a swamp pre-agriculture? Also, the "pre-agriculture = low population" is just a speculation, it could have been far higher population in some areas and we wouldnt have any evidence for it today. See for example Americas before conquestadors, there were areas with millions of people, and not all doing agriculture or even horticulture. The best areas which could have supported a very high population have been destroyed, all the best areas were taken by "civilized" war people, and now the only nomads/hunter gatherers left are in far-reached shitty areas.

mcv 11y ago

Is the end of an ice age not a form of climate change then? A fact of the matter is that a lot of evolution is driven by constantly changing climates. The supervolcanos and asteroid impact that killed the dinosaurs also did so through climate change: too much dust in the air and too little sunlight made the land colder, killed much of the plants, and made resources more scarce. Small warm-blooded animals suddenly had the edge. It is a bit of a catch-all, though. Just "climate change" doesn't tell you much. Receding glaciers and more accessible land tells you a lot more.

arethuza 11y ago
And its not like the last ice age just neatly stopped - there was a significant cooling period during the Younger Dryas which wasn't quite a bad as a full Ice Age but was still pretty severe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Younger_Dryas

kafkaesq 11y ago

It's always 'climate change'. No -- if you read their arguments more closely, what they suspect is that some populations were able to adapt to sudden climate change, while others were not. So really, it's about adaptability.