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You're right that there's significant legal and regulatory hurdles that have to be cleared, but I think they're more of an issue for broad adoption. SF will hav
by rqebmm 11y ago
You're right that there's significant legal and regulatory hurdles that have to be cleared, but I think they're more of an issue for broad adoption. SF will have a driverless taxi service probably within the next 5 years. Once that's in place it's only a matter of time/strength of the taxi lobby that's going to stop it, (and Uber has shown that can be broken even in places like London).
If you're talking about _everyone_ in major economies having a driverless car, yeah, I think 40 years is realistic given the replacement rate for cars alone, nevermind the legal issues.
- Symbiote 11y agoI know what you mean, but London is a poor example — the well known "black cab" service has been heavily regulated forever, but cheaper "minicabs" have been available to book (rather than hail on the street) since the 1960s, and subject to a little regulation¹ since 2001. Most operators were tiny companies with a few cars servicing a local area, until Addison Lee started running a London-wide service about 10-15 years ago — they had nicer cars, better availability and marketing and so on. Uber set up in London under the same regulations. ¹ Additional car inspection, criminal record check on the driver, etc. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxicabs_of_the_United_Kingdom#Private_hire_.28minicabs.29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxicabs_of_the_United_Kingdom...