3 ms·

Do analysts ever share their data models publicly? It'd be interesting to see the data and be able to play with numbers along with these kinds of reports.

retanto 11y ago
You'll never see any of their data models or data
- studentrob 11y ago
  Really? I find it very surprising that investors would follow such guidance without being able to see the numbers. How are businesses who produce this kind of report evaluated? Do people count the number of times they predicted correctly or incorrectly?
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
  - Nicholas_C 11y ago
    I have a good friend who worked in investor relations for a tech company that IPO'd. He worked with these analysts and they would send him models. I'm told that most of these analysts were juggling 5+ companies and couldn't devote much time to any particular company without neglecting the others. Due to this, their models were often very poor or were missing large, publicly known items. Something to think about.
    - GFischer 11y ago
      Some stories are incredible, for example the Dragon horror story that was featured here a few weeks ago: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/business/goldman-sachs-and-a-sale-gone-horribly-awry.html?_r=2 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/business/goldman-sachs-and... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10994707 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10994707
  - huac 11y ago
    > I find it very surprising that investors would follow such guidance without being able to see the numbers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx4poQw1mZo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx4poQw1mZo > How are businesses who produce this kind of report evaluated? These reports are made by sell-side analysts, and the banks are evaluated by how much profit their buy-side analysts can make. See a disconnect? > Do people count the number of times they predicted correctly or incorrectly? Google "analyst ranks", so I guess once a year, but investing is mostly a relationship-based environment so the actual ranks might not make a difference that often I will say Dave Wessels is real good at this
nonsequ 11y ago
Yes, sell-side (i.e. brokers like Goldman, Morgan Stanley, etc.) analysts do share their models with clients. They do this both in 'hardcopy,' pasted into published research reports, as well as 'softcopy,' sending or publishing the Excel file. Not exactly mainstream distribution, but 'public' in the eyes of the SEC and something you can find if you look for it.
antiviral 11y ago
If you are looking for how these models are created, you can look at the work of well-regarded experts in the valuation field like Damodoran, whose techniques many at i-banks or consulting firms would learn at some point in their careers. This link is to Damodoran's post for LinkedIn and GoPro (with downloadable, completed Excel models, which can be used as templates for other valuations): http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2016/02/lazarus-rising-or-icarus-falling-gopro.html http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2016/02/lazarus-rising-o...

retanto 11y ago

You'll never see any of their data models or data

studentrob 11y ago
Really? I find it very surprising that investors would follow such guidance without being able to see the numbers. How are businesses who produce this kind of report evaluated? Do people count the number of times they predicted correctly or incorrectly?
- deleted 11y ago
  [deleted]
- Nicholas_C 11y ago
  I have a good friend who worked in investor relations for a tech company that IPO'd. He worked with these analysts and they would send him models. I'm told that most of these analysts were juggling 5+ companies and couldn't devote much time to any particular company without neglecting the others. Due to this, their models were often very poor or were missing large, publicly known items. Something to think about.
  - GFischer 11y ago
    Some stories are incredible, for example the Dragon horror story that was featured here a few weeks ago: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/business/goldman-sachs-and-a-sale-gone-horribly-awry.html?_r=2 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/15/business/goldman-sachs-and... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10994707 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10994707
- huac 11y ago
  > I find it very surprising that investors would follow such guidance without being able to see the numbers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx4poQw1mZo https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lx4poQw1mZo > How are businesses who produce this kind of report evaluated? These reports are made by sell-side analysts, and the banks are evaluated by how much profit their buy-side analysts can make. See a disconnect? > Do people count the number of times they predicted correctly or incorrectly? Google "analyst ranks", so I guess once a year, but investing is mostly a relationship-based environment so the actual ranks might not make a difference that often I will say Dave Wessels is real good at this

nonsequ 11y ago

Yes, sell-side (i.e. brokers like Goldman, Morgan Stanley, etc.) analysts do share their models with clients. They do this both in 'hardcopy,' pasted into published research reports, as well as 'softcopy,' sending or publishing the Excel file. Not exactly mainstream distribution, but 'public' in the eyes of the SEC and something you can find if you look for it.

antiviral 11y ago

If you are looking for how these models are created, you can look at the work of well-regarded experts in the valuation field like Damodoran, whose techniques many at i-banks or consulting firms would learn at some point in their careers. This link is to Damodoran's post for LinkedIn and GoPro (with downloadable, completed Excel models, which can be used as templates for other valuations): http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2016/02/lazarus-rising-or-icarus-falling-gopro.html http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2016/02/lazarus-rising-o...