I'm sick of all this talk of "scalable incomes" that refuse to confront the inherent survivor bias problem. The problem with scalable incomes is that they scale

I'm sick of all this talk of "scalable incomes" that refuse to confront the inherent survivor bias problem. The problem with scalable incomes is that they scale down as well as up. Say you found a system that has a 1% chance of making you $100,000 a year and a 99% chance of making $5 a year. For the average person, that's a pretty shitty deal since it's only got an expected value of $1000 a year. But sell the system to 1000 people and you can find 10 who enthusiastically talk about the wonders of scalable income and ponder wisely about the various choices they made that got them to where they are today and how everyone should join them in the wonderful scalable utopia. It's all bullshit, without accounting for the hidden failures, it's impossible to determine how much pure luck played a role.