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I'd argue that game theory could be tremendously more useful if its practitioners made a better habit of questioning their own assumptions about the situations
by jriddycuz 17y ago
I'd argue that game theory could be tremendously more useful if its practitioners made a better habit of questioning their own assumptions about the situations they model.
In the study cited in the article, the authors (seemingly) assume that pitch and play selection have constant or near constant marginal returns. That is, they assume that if pitchers just threw fewer fastballs, they'd be more successful. There is really no reason from the data presented to assume that. Perhaps pitchers need the fastballs to set up better pitches (they do), and perhaps other pitches wear their arms out faster (curve balls tend to). The author of the main article hints at this possibility in the context of NFL plays, but doesn't address it very seriously.
In general it's dangerous to look at data without a solid understanding of the theory behind that data and then claim to have a better understanding of that field than those who operate in it vocationally.
- roundsquare 17y agoOn top of that, they coach has to deal with players morale. If a passing play failed last time, the players may be wary of of another passing play. This gets worse if a pass play has failed a bunch that day. On top of that, you have to deal with player fatigue, risk of injury, etc... There are a lot of finite resources (or resources that don't replenish quickly) in real life games. In football as well (I don't know much about baseball), you may not go for maximum yards in each play. If its fourth down with 1 yard to go, you don't care about getting 12 yards, you one your 1 yard (usually). Assuming each play is like the previous is 100% false. Improperly applied theories are worse than human instinct. Properly applied theories can be better than human instinct.