I've been thinking about this as well. Where my head's at right now: - Conscious AGI is not even close. Many fundamental breakthroughs in philosophy/science re

I've been thinking about this as well. Where my head's at right now: - Conscious AGI is not even close. Many fundamental breakthroughs in philosophy/science required (binding problem, how sensations arise from physical processes, etc) - Smart non-conscious AI approaching AGI requires getting the balance between many sub-modules correct (see openCog), and probably requires a lot of time and research to get right - Non-conscious domain-specific supervised-learning has strong potential in the next 5-10 years (any problem a human can solve in a few milliseconds is a good candidate, but usually requires a lot of data to supervise the learning algorithm)