The "imagine 1000 women..." formulation definitely sounds easier to understand, but doctors do very poorly on it as well. Some numbers: http://slatestarcodex.c

The "imagine 1000 women..." formulation definitely sounds easier to understand, but doctors do very poorly on it as well. Some numbers: http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/12/17/statistical-literacy-among-doctors-now-lower-than-chance/ http://slatestarcodex.com/2013/12/17/statistical-literacy-am... In practice things are not quite as dire as you'd expect, thanks to diagnostic guidelines written with input from people who know about conditional probability.