6 ms·

Google Buzz is brilliant, Facebook just lost half its value

32 points by ALee 17y ago

mr_eel 17y ago
It's the users. Facebook's value isn't going to vary any unless there is some migration from Facebook to Buzz. What exactly does Buzz offer that Facebook doesn't? What kind of recognition will it have? This is all very interesting, but it's _far_ too early for this kind of hyperbole.
- tokenadult 17y ago
  Facebook's value isn't going to vary any unless there is some migration from Facebook to Buzz. It has been done before. Do you remember Prodigy? CompuServe? AOL? MySpace? For that matter, how often do you use the search engines Excite, Lycos, AltaVista, or whatever Microsoft's search engine was before Bing? Users go where the user experience is pleasant. Advertisers look for click-throughs, and try to estimate eyeball-minutes for the major sites, and Google has a fair chance of beating Facebook with Buzz. Not overnight, but steadily. Many of my Facebook friends haven't seen the Google Buzz roll-out yet, but they have seen the new Facebook homepage roll-out, and they don't like it. AFTER EDIT: And it occurs to me that Calacanis's main statement, that Facebook lost value, is hard to test while Facebook is not publicly traded. But Google's value is easy to track in the stock market. If this move looks stupid to Google investors, their behavior will show that.
  - waterlesscloud 17y ago
    The cost of leaving facebook is higher than it was for leaving any of those other platforms. People have their social graphs well-established on Facebook now. Not a bad guess at their desired graph, as Buzz provides, but a graph they've shaped themselves over the course of a year or more. Me-too or even evolutionary won't cut it for draining Facebook of its users. It's got to provide signficantly more value immediately upon signing up. So far, it doesn't.
    - marciovm123 17y ago
      I think you have to think of this utility in terms of how the two social graphs are different. The Facebook social graph is established by people you meet in person and who decide later to send you a friend invite, or people you knew at some point who saw your picture on someone else's friends list. The strength of the connection is determined by Facebook based on how often you interact with or stalk that person. The Gmail social graph is people you actually communicate with, and is more dynamic in the sense that you probably communicate with more people on a day-to-day basis then you interact/stalk with on Fb. The question is, which of these makes for a more relevant following system, and for what kind of user? Perhaps one way to think of it is that people who are all about sharing pictures will prefer Fb, but those who are all about sharing ideas will prefer Buzz. Which target demographic has more income?
      - tokenadult 17y ago
        Perhaps one way to think of it is that people who are all about sharing pictures will prefer Fb, but those who are all about sharing ideas will prefer Buzz. Which target demographic has more income? A very good question. That's about what I'm thinking as I consider making Buzz my primary channel for interacting with my friends. I'm considering "ideas" more than "income," but I'm not looking for games or cute pictures. AFTER EDIT: As I just posted on Facebook, in a thread discussing the New York Times article about Buzz, "rebuilding a whole social graph is a bother. But MIGRATING a social graph to a site that is at least as useful and less annoying might be something much easier to do. I am glad to see some thoughtful competition in this space, the better to kee Facebook honest." I see some other comments on my Facebook threads and here on HN along the lines of using Facebook to first establish a network of friends, and then using the Next Great Thing in Social Networking to winnow that group of friends to get a dense network of closest friends. That might work for me.
      - HelenL14 17y ago
        That's an interesting way of looking at it, but you're still talking about "preference" of one over the other. Unless there's a new tool out there that can integrate everything for me, (even if I prefer FB/Buzz/Twitter/etc.) I'll still probably use all of them for those precise separate reasons. I think it'd be interesting to see how many NEW social network users Buzz will bring in, just because of the simple fact that it makes setting up a brand new network easy as pie (vs FB and having to build up to a nice little community of friends).
  - adam-_- 17y ago
    Not many people in my "social circle" use gmail [that I know of] where as _everyone_ uses facebook... Also, in general, no one ever likes facebook UI updates, yet they never leave.
    - robryan 17y ago
      I think for some people they have opposed so many UI updates on facebook that they no longer remember which UI they considered good.
  - mr_eel 17y ago
    "It has been done before. Do you remember Prodigy? CompuServe? AOL? MySpace?" Yeah. Or Friendster. Of course it could happen, but my point is that it is too early to tell what impact Buzz will have. "Google has a fair chance of beating Facebook with Buzz" Agreed. But that time is not now and the hyperbole is unwarranted. As you say, steady gains are a possible -- and most likely -- way for Buzz to unseat Facebook.
- rudin 17y ago
  I am trying to migrate from Facebook to Buzz. From the look of things it suits me better. I never enjoyed Facebook that much as it seems there is a race to get the most friends and I find all the photo sharing a little disturbing.
jasonwilk 17y ago
i wish there was a way to send calacanis a virtual slap in the face for this one. So wrong. To answer his questions: 1. Have you used Google Buzz? Yes, I think I'm perceived as a target user. Tried it, quit it. 2. How is Google Buzz better than Facebook? It's not. 3. What advantages does Google Buzz have over Facebook? That it lives in Gmail, but that's still not compelling. 4. What advantages does Facebook have over Google? My friends/social graph algorithms/news feed 5. Did you see this coming? Sure, why wouldn't Google try this. They have 20,000 employees. This maybe took 5 weeks and 3 dev guys to hack up. 6. What do you attribute Google’s recent string of AMAZING products including: Chrome, Android, Nexus One and Buzz? Nexus One has a nice screen resolution. That's about the only good thing.
- NiftyIon 17y ago
  I dunno, I feel like you're being a bit overly critical here. In my mind, Buzz isn't competing with Facebook, it's competing with Twitter. Buzz is Twitter for the masses. And personally, I know that due to Gmail integration, I'm going to be using it - unlike Twitter or Facebook. People seem to want Buzz to fail for some reason. I feel like people saw Wave, decided "Oh, Google failed, they can't possibly make a new product right", and are now trying to pin that on Buzz too. Anyway, I'm using it, as are a bunch of my friends. People are already using it in my social friend graph, and enthusiastically, too - which is much more than could be said for Wave. I'm not saying it's going to be a huge success, but I think it's silly to just brush it off as crap so quickly.
  - jasonwilk 17y ago
    This was more in response to Calacanis' blind optimism that it is going to cut Facebook traffic in half.
  - danudey 17y ago
    > I know that due to Gmail integration, I'm going to be using it - unlike Twitter or Facebook. Funny - due to gmail integration, I'll never use it. It feels to me like an issue of kool-aid. If you accept the assertion that everyone uses gmail, and that everyone loves the gmail interface, and that people keep gmail open all day (or at least check it fairly often), then Google Buzz seems like a great idea - a social network tied into all the services you use every day. It breaks down when you start breaking those assertions. If you're not in Gmail every day (e.g. if you use an IMAP client), or if you don't like the interface (but you have to use it, e.g. Google Apps), or if you don't use gmail at all, then Google Buzz becomes a huge hassle to use. I'd love to love Buzz, because I like awesome things, but it seems to me that the Buzz team just assumes everyone loves Gmail as much as Google does, and that's not going to pan out. They might think Buzz will be a draw to Gmail, but in reality Gmail will be a barrier to Buzz.
og1 17y ago
Facebook has lock-in. I don't think most Facebook users jump from app to app that quickly.
- robryan 17y ago
  myspace also had lock in.
anderzole 17y ago
Is Calacanis really this much of an idiot?
- dotcoma 17y ago
  apparently, yes.
ashishbharthi 17y ago
Currently the only advantage Google Buzz has over Facebook is it lives in Gmail.
- robotron 17y ago
  and integrates nicely with Reader.
dasil003 17y ago
God I feel like I'm being trolled here, but I'll bite. Let's assume Google Buzz is undeniably better than Facebook. Let's also assume no one is really invested in the 90% of Facebook functionality that Google Buzz doesn't address. Hell, let's assume any user who tries Google Buzz will instantly declare eternal allegiance to Larry and Sergey and immediately delete their Facebook account. Even with all those dramatically dubious flamebait claims, how the hell is Google going to get everyone to try Buzz. Since when do better products automatically win in the tech marketplace? If Calacanis is going for pageviews then I say well-played, but if he actually believes this tripe then he's dumber than he is arrogant.
- sz 17y ago
  It's already in Gmail.
  - Vindexus 17y ago
    Judging from my group of friends, most people who use Facebook do not use Gmail. I'm not sure how well this transfers to the rest of the world, but for almost all of my Facebook friends, none of them will hear of Buzz through Gmail.
    - drawkbox 17y ago
      Locking it to the gmail account is a bad idea. It might make business sense for Google but for becoming a Facebook or Twitter killer, it is not with that limitation.
      - jasonmcalacanis 17y ago
        agree... and i bet they will make it part of your google profile and available for just that.
      - robotron 17y ago
        It's a great idea in light of Facebook incorporating more email features into it's services.
wrinklz 17y ago
I hate FaceBook. It's like living in a college dorm. Without the intellectual bits.
motters 17y ago
I've tried Buzz, and it doesn't look like anything special to me. Google are going to need to do more work if they're hoping to take on the likes of Facebook with this.
richcollins 17y ago
Why the hell does anyone still read anything that this guy writes. More often than not he's full of shit. Why risk your time trying to figure out which is the case for any single piece of his writing.
- HelenL14 17y ago
  It spurs interesting debate when someone puts a strong stake in the ground. I mean, look at this thread :)
  - richcollins 17y ago
    He's just following the formula for getting attention. 1. Watch for some news trend 2. Write an inflammatory post 3. Get more followers on Twitter
jhuckestein 17y ago
I think Buzz's most fatal flaw is that it relies to heavily on Gmail. Anybody who hasn't used gmail until now will probably not start using Buzz. Another thing (but that's very imho) is that Google applications still look and feel like Excel. They are certainly very good, but also feel like work.
vijayr 17y ago
Am I the only one who saw the URL and didn't bother to read the article?
joeblack69 17y ago
I use "Flock" to handle all of my Gmail and social networking needs.as well as for a host of other net trolling and data mining tasks...can get a bit cluttered though So why do I want to learn all the new BUZZ particulars ..imho google's a day late and a buck short.... who am I kidding I'll try it when I get bored w/ FLOCK...
mhartl 17y ago
Perhaps Buzz will prove to have enduring value, but so far my experience is like this: I'm 'following' people I never followed, some of whom I don't even know but who I apparently emailed at some point; and they're clogging up my Google Reader feeds to boot. It sure seems like Google doesn't understand social behavior very well... I may be wrong about Buzz, but my first impression was not good.
hendzen 17y ago
When you're trying to displace a competitor that has a complete hold on the market, it's not enough to have something with a few added features (mathematically expressed as x + 1), you need to have a revolutionary product (x^2).

32 points by ALee 17y ago

It's the users. Facebook's value isn't going to vary any unless there is some migration from Facebook to Buzz. What exactly does Buzz offer that Facebook doesn't? What kind of recognition will it have? This is all very interesting, but it's _far_ too early for this kind of hyperbole.

tokenadult 17y ago
Facebook's value isn't going to vary any unless there is some migration from Facebook to Buzz. It has been done before. Do you remember Prodigy? CompuServe? AOL? MySpace? For that matter, how often do you use the search engines Excite, Lycos, AltaVista, or whatever Microsoft's search engine was before Bing? Users go where the user experience is pleasant. Advertisers look for click-throughs, and try to estimate eyeball-minutes for the major sites, and Google has a fair chance of beating Facebook with Buzz. Not overnight, but steadily. Many of my Facebook friends haven't seen the Google Buzz roll-out yet, but they have seen the new Facebook homepage roll-out, and they don't like it. AFTER EDIT: And it occurs to me that Calacanis's main statement, that Facebook lost value, is hard to test while Facebook is not publicly traded. But Google's value is easy to track in the stock market. If this move looks stupid to Google investors, their behavior will show that.
- waterlesscloud 17y ago
  The cost of leaving facebook is higher than it was for leaving any of those other platforms. People have their social graphs well-established on Facebook now. Not a bad guess at their desired graph, as Buzz provides, but a graph they've shaped themselves over the course of a year or more. Me-too or even evolutionary won't cut it for draining Facebook of its users. It's got to provide signficantly more value immediately upon signing up. So far, it doesn't.
  - marciovm123 17y ago
    I think you have to think of this utility in terms of how the two social graphs are different. The Facebook social graph is established by people you meet in person and who decide later to send you a friend invite, or people you knew at some point who saw your picture on someone else's friends list. The strength of the connection is determined by Facebook based on how often you interact with or stalk that person. The Gmail social graph is people you actually communicate with, and is more dynamic in the sense that you probably communicate with more people on a day-to-day basis then you interact/stalk with on Fb. The question is, which of these makes for a more relevant following system, and for what kind of user? Perhaps one way to think of it is that people who are all about sharing pictures will prefer Fb, but those who are all about sharing ideas will prefer Buzz. Which target demographic has more income?
    - tokenadult 17y ago
      Perhaps one way to think of it is that people who are all about sharing pictures will prefer Fb, but those who are all about sharing ideas will prefer Buzz. Which target demographic has more income? A very good question. That's about what I'm thinking as I consider making Buzz my primary channel for interacting with my friends. I'm considering "ideas" more than "income," but I'm not looking for games or cute pictures. AFTER EDIT: As I just posted on Facebook, in a thread discussing the New York Times article about Buzz, "rebuilding a whole social graph is a bother. But MIGRATING a social graph to a site that is at least as useful and less annoying might be something much easier to do. I am glad to see some thoughtful competition in this space, the better to kee Facebook honest." I see some other comments on my Facebook threads and here on HN along the lines of using Facebook to first establish a network of friends, and then using the Next Great Thing in Social Networking to winnow that group of friends to get a dense network of closest friends. That might work for me.
    - HelenL14 17y ago
      That's an interesting way of looking at it, but you're still talking about "preference" of one over the other. Unless there's a new tool out there that can integrate everything for me, (even if I prefer FB/Buzz/Twitter/etc.) I'll still probably use all of them for those precise separate reasons. I think it'd be interesting to see how many NEW social network users Buzz will bring in, just because of the simple fact that it makes setting up a brand new network easy as pie (vs FB and having to build up to a nice little community of friends).
- adam-_- 17y ago
  Not many people in my "social circle" use gmail [that I know of] where as _everyone_ uses facebook... Also, in general, no one ever likes facebook UI updates, yet they never leave.
  - robryan 17y ago
    I think for some people they have opposed so many UI updates on facebook that they no longer remember which UI they considered good.
- mr_eel 17y ago
  "It has been done before. Do you remember Prodigy? CompuServe? AOL? MySpace?" Yeah. Or Friendster. Of course it could happen, but my point is that it is too early to tell what impact Buzz will have. "Google has a fair chance of beating Facebook with Buzz" Agreed. But that time is not now and the hyperbole is unwarranted. As you say, steady gains are a possible -- and most likely -- way for Buzz to unseat Facebook.
rudin 17y ago
I am trying to migrate from Facebook to Buzz. From the look of things it suits me better. I never enjoyed Facebook that much as it seems there is a race to get the most friends and I find all the photo sharing a little disturbing.

jasonwilk 17y ago

i wish there was a way to send calacanis a virtual slap in the face for this one. So wrong. To answer his questions: 1. Have you used Google Buzz? Yes, I think I'm perceived as a target user. Tried it, quit it. 2. How is Google Buzz better than Facebook? It's not. 3. What advantages does Google Buzz have over Facebook? That it lives in Gmail, but that's still not compelling. 4. What advantages does Facebook have over Google? My friends/social graph algorithms/news feed 5. Did you see this coming? Sure, why wouldn't Google try this. They have 20,000 employees. This maybe took 5 weeks and 3 dev guys to hack up. 6. What do you attribute Google’s recent string of AMAZING products including: Chrome, Android, Nexus One and Buzz? Nexus One has a nice screen resolution. That's about the only good thing.

NiftyIon 17y ago
I dunno, I feel like you're being a bit overly critical here. In my mind, Buzz isn't competing with Facebook, it's competing with Twitter. Buzz is Twitter for the masses. And personally, I know that due to Gmail integration, I'm going to be using it - unlike Twitter or Facebook. People seem to want Buzz to fail for some reason. I feel like people saw Wave, decided "Oh, Google failed, they can't possibly make a new product right", and are now trying to pin that on Buzz too. Anyway, I'm using it, as are a bunch of my friends. People are already using it in my social friend graph, and enthusiastically, too - which is much more than could be said for Wave. I'm not saying it's going to be a huge success, but I think it's silly to just brush it off as crap so quickly.
- jasonwilk 17y ago
  This was more in response to Calacanis' blind optimism that it is going to cut Facebook traffic in half.
- danudey 17y ago
  > I know that due to Gmail integration, I'm going to be using it - unlike Twitter or Facebook. Funny - due to gmail integration, I'll never use it. It feels to me like an issue of kool-aid. If you accept the assertion that everyone uses gmail, and that everyone loves the gmail interface, and that people keep gmail open all day (or at least check it fairly often), then Google Buzz seems like a great idea - a social network tied into all the services you use every day. It breaks down when you start breaking those assertions. If you're not in Gmail every day (e.g. if you use an IMAP client), or if you don't like the interface (but you have to use it, e.g. Google Apps), or if you don't use gmail at all, then Google Buzz becomes a huge hassle to use. I'd love to love Buzz, because I like awesome things, but it seems to me that the Buzz team just assumes everyone loves Gmail as much as Google does, and that's not going to pan out. They might think Buzz will be a draw to Gmail, but in reality Gmail will be a barrier to Buzz.

og1 17y ago

Facebook has lock-in. I don't think most Facebook users jump from app to app that quickly.

robryan 17y ago
myspace also had lock in.

anderzole 17y ago

Is Calacanis really this much of an idiot?

dotcoma 17y ago
apparently, yes.

ashishbharthi 17y ago

Currently the only advantage Google Buzz has over Facebook is it lives in Gmail.

robotron 17y ago
and integrates nicely with Reader.

dasil003 17y ago

God I feel like I'm being trolled here, but I'll bite. Let's assume Google Buzz is undeniably better than Facebook. Let's also assume no one is really invested in the 90% of Facebook functionality that Google Buzz doesn't address. Hell, let's assume any user who tries Google Buzz will instantly declare eternal allegiance to Larry and Sergey and immediately delete their Facebook account. Even with all those dramatically dubious flamebait claims, how the hell is Google going to get everyone to try Buzz. Since when do better products automatically win in the tech marketplace? If Calacanis is going for pageviews then I say well-played, but if he actually believes this tripe then he's dumber than he is arrogant.

sz 17y ago
It's already in Gmail.
- Vindexus 17y ago
  Judging from my group of friends, most people who use Facebook do not use Gmail. I'm not sure how well this transfers to the rest of the world, but for almost all of my Facebook friends, none of them will hear of Buzz through Gmail.
  - drawkbox 17y ago
    Locking it to the gmail account is a bad idea. It might make business sense for Google but for becoming a Facebook or Twitter killer, it is not with that limitation.
    - jasonmcalacanis 17y ago
      agree... and i bet they will make it part of your google profile and available for just that.
    - robotron 17y ago
      It's a great idea in light of Facebook incorporating more email features into it's services.

wrinklz 17y ago

I hate FaceBook. It's like living in a college dorm. Without the intellectual bits.

motters 17y ago

I've tried Buzz, and it doesn't look like anything special to me. Google are going to need to do more work if they're hoping to take on the likes of Facebook with this.

richcollins 17y ago

Why the hell does anyone still read anything that this guy writes. More often than not he's full of shit. Why risk your time trying to figure out which is the case for any single piece of his writing.

HelenL14 17y ago
It spurs interesting debate when someone puts a strong stake in the ground. I mean, look at this thread :)
- richcollins 17y ago
  He's just following the formula for getting attention. 1. Watch for some news trend 2. Write an inflammatory post 3. Get more followers on Twitter

jhuckestein 17y ago

I think Buzz's most fatal flaw is that it relies to heavily on Gmail. Anybody who hasn't used gmail until now will probably not start using Buzz. Another thing (but that's very imho) is that Google applications still look and feel like Excel. They are certainly very good, but also feel like work.

vijayr 17y ago

Am I the only one who saw the URL and didn't bother to read the article?

joeblack69 17y ago

I use "Flock" to handle all of my Gmail and social networking needs.as well as for a host of other net trolling and data mining tasks...can get a bit cluttered though So why do I want to learn all the new BUZZ particulars ..imho google's a day late and a buck short.... who am I kidding I'll try it when I get bored w/ FLOCK...

mhartl 17y ago

Perhaps Buzz will prove to have enduring value, but so far my experience is like this: I'm 'following' people I never followed, some of whom I don't even know but who I apparently emailed at some point; and they're clogging up my Google Reader feeds to boot. It sure seems like Google doesn't understand social behavior very well... I may be wrong about Buzz, but my first impression was not good.

hendzen 17y ago

When you're trying to displace a competitor that has a complete hold on the market, it's not enough to have something with a few added features (mathematically expressed as x + 1), you need to have a revolutionary product (x^2).