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I pointed this out last month. Got downvoted, though. How long do you think Taiwan is going to last as an autonomous entity, now that it can no longer rel

I pointed this out last month. Got downvoted, though. How long do you think Taiwan is going to last as an autonomous entity, now that it can no longer rely on the US for military support, because the US is in hock to the PRC? http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1050622 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1050622

hga 17y ago
True, true ... but this threat only works if the PRC keeps buying our debt. If they stop, they have the problem of getting the outstanding debt redeemed or writing it off, and they are of no use to us going forward (at least in this narrow area).
lionhearted 17y ago
> How long do you think Taiwan is going to last as an autonomous entity, now that it can no longer rely on the US for military support, because the US is in hock to the PRC? I spent last month in Taiwan and asked this and similar questions to lots of smart Taiwanese people I know. The answer is complicated. There's a few points. 1. Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan in the first place because of the mountainous terrain. You'd take catastrophic losses attacking the place. This is the same reason Switzerland was able to stay neutral during all the various European wars over the last several centuries. 2. Some of the people of Taiwan want to have closer relations with China, open borders, and what not, but they'll almost certainly never be fully annexed into China. Population of China is 1.3 billion. Population of Taiwan ~23 million. So if they came to terms somehow, Taiwan would almost certainly keep their own local government control of the Formosa island, their own currency, and most likely their own separate military force. 3. Due to population differences, in anything resembling a democracy, Taiwan would have very little say over all of combined China's affairs, and combined China would have quite a lot of say over Taiwan's affairs. Thus, it probably won't happen any time soon, but more open borders and friendlier relations is likely.

hga 17y ago

True, true ... but this threat only works if the PRC keeps buying our debt. If they stop, they have the problem of getting the outstanding debt redeemed or writing it off, and they are of no use to us going forward (at least in this narrow area).

lionhearted 17y ago

> How long do you think Taiwan is going to last as an autonomous entity, now that it can no longer rely on the US for military support, because the US is in hock to the PRC? I spent last month in Taiwan and asked this and similar questions to lots of smart Taiwanese people I know. The answer is complicated. There's a few points. 1. Chiang Kai-shek retreated to Taiwan in the first place because of the mountainous terrain. You'd take catastrophic losses attacking the place. This is the same reason Switzerland was able to stay neutral during all the various European wars over the last several centuries. 2. Some of the people of Taiwan want to have closer relations with China, open borders, and what not, but they'll almost certainly never be fully annexed into China. Population of China is 1.3 billion. Population of Taiwan ~23 million. So if they came to terms somehow, Taiwan would almost certainly keep their own local government control of the Formosa island, their own currency, and most likely their own separate military force. 3. Due to population differences, in anything resembling a democracy, Taiwan would have very little say over all of combined China's affairs, and combined China would have quite a lot of say over Taiwan's affairs. Thus, it probably won't happen any time soon, but more open borders and friendlier relations is likely.