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I predict, that in the future, there will be a recession. Also, at some point, an economic boom. Feel free to quote me on that. I am unable to give exact dates
by sawthat 11y ago
I predict, that in the future, there will be a recession. Also, at some point, an economic boom. Feel free to quote me on that.
I am unable to give exact dates, but there is a 25% chance that it will begin in the spring (what year, I cannot say)
- danjayh 11y agoI'll nail it down a little for you. I think it's going to be within two years, based purely on asset valuation : income ... which isn't a particularly sophisticated way to analyze it, but when people can't afford things anymore, they stop buying them, and that has predictable effects.
- an4rchy 11y agoIf you strongly believe this, you could do something similar to what the guy did in 'The Big Short', short the relevant markets within your timeframe and you'll be recession proof.
- eli_gottlieb 11y agoThat forgets the primary lesson of the film: markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, and doubly so for rigged markets.
- enraged_camel 11y agoI think you should both put your money where your mouths are: longbets.org
- nostrademons 11y agoDon't even need Longbets; just invest in or short the stock market.
- clock_tower 11y agoShorting is very risky, since the downside risk is unlimited if you guess wrong. (Imagine shorting Microsoft based on the low quality of their code, sometime around MS-DOS 1.0.) It's better to buy businesses that will go up when the market goes down, or ones that are recession-proof in general, while avoiding cyclically sensitive businesses and, especially, any sectors that are about to have bubbles burst in them. If the near future is the unicorn version of the dot-com bubble, its aftermath would be a good time for tech stocks you're interested in.
- nostrademons 11y agoOptions, then. Buy a put option and your downside is limited to the cost of the option; you just get nothing if it's out of the money. My point is that there are plenty of financial instruments that exist precisely so you can "put your money where your mouth is".
- sk5t 11y agoOptions vs. shorting are just two different ways to risk all your capital on a bet... the "unlimited" downside of a short position has a practical limit--it's when your broker forces your account to cover with buys (the short squeeze) and you zero out.
- jessaustin 11y agoBuying an option only risks the cost of the option.
- eru 11y agoYou describe selling a call. Not buying a put. (jessaustin is right about these.)
- sk5t 11y agoNo, I described the practical downside exposure of a short (or, the trader could put in a stop). It is no more "unlimited" than is the downside of buying a bunch of ultimately worthless options.
- an4rchy 11y agowow.. didn't know such a site existed...will definitely point more people to the site when they keep making these types of predictions. That was such a fun read (looks like the site has been around for a long time)
- junto 11y agoI'll go even further and day that it will go up and down again continuously. An "economic cycle" if you will. You can quote me on that too! :-)
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]