To be more mathy: Option A (snowball): Total Cost if successful: $X Likelihood of success: 90% (just making stuff up here) Option B : Total Cost if successful

To be more mathy: Option A (snowball): Total Cost if successful: $X Likelihood of success: 90% (just making stuff up here) Option B : Total Cost if successful: $Y Likelihood of success: 80% (again, making stuff up) If 80% * Y + cost of failure > 90% * X plus cost of failure, even if X > Y, then a rational actor will choose Option A. Sure, the "chance of success" is subjective, but ignoring it doesn't make the likelihood of failure go away.