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Nice correlation study, but I'm really skeptical of any causation inference that might be possible. I mean, if the software gets to the point where it can ident
by 6stringmerc 11y ago
Nice correlation study, but I'm really skeptical of any causation inference that might be possible. I mean, if the software gets to the point where it can identify the next Jeff Skilling[1] then great, but I doubt such surface level data has a lot of predictive potential.
I do find it kind of funny that the article cites the study mentioning 'negative' type emotional states aligned with ~9% profit boost, when one of the most interesting 'tells' in the Enron case was when Jeff Skilling got really bitchy at an analyst who was probing him hard on some difficult questions. The disgust was holding up a facade in that instance, and I don't doubt dishonesty might be a factor in the emotional state of others.
>“Fear is widely recognized as a powerful motivator. Thus it is not surprising to find that a CEO who appears fearful under interrogation is perceived by the market as a CEO who will work harder to increase firm value,” said the paper, which was co-authored by Steve Ferris of the University of Central Missouri and Ali Akansu and Yanjia Sun of New Jersey Institute of Technology.
This is a quite optimistic view of what one's behaviors might result in when driven by fear. I'm fairly confident fear of failure drives a lot of fraud. It sure seems a familiar story...
[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Skilling
- solipsism 11y agoIt doesn't seem to me that whether there can be shown to be a causal relationship between this data and future performance would have any bearing on whether the relationship has predictive power.
- deleted 11y ago[deleted]
- gozur88 11y agoAnything that relies on fear is going to miss the narcissists.