"In the areas I spot checked it was more in the range of $2.5-$3k/mo." Exactly my point. The rent has to be above the mortgage payment by a good deal to make bu

"In the areas I spot checked it was more in the range of $2.5-$3k/mo." Exactly my point. The rent has to be above the mortgage payment by a good deal to make buying pencil out. If, as in your example, the equivalent rent is 25% less than the mortgage payment would be, buying doesn't come out ahead at all, nevermind by "large and unambiguous margins." Your analysis link makes the same handwavey errors you did in your initial breakdown -- maintenance costs far too low, ignoring other costs involved with homeownership, etc. Interestingly enough, the link has a postscript where he redoes the analysis after people point out those errors with just a couple of those factored in (not all of them) and concludes that the renter would just about make his money back -- and that's with a rent payment about the same as the mortgage payment, not 25% less.