9 ms·

There is no shortage of STEM workers

104 points by Futurebot 11y ago

myNXTact 11y ago
>The truth, however, is quite different. For example, Clemson’s engineering enrollment has reached almost 5,300 students – an 80 percent increase since 2008! Enrollment numbers for engineering students are not really relevant. It is the graduation numbers. Engineering programs are notorious for "weeding out" large numbers of students. His salary statistics are scary though.
- fweespeech 11y ago
  Yes. In an actual labor shortage, you'd see salaries going up 5%+ due to competition for candidates. If you see something on par [or even worse, less than] inflation, there isn't a shortage of any kind.
- pmiller2 11y ago
  How much of those salary statistics are just reflections of general trends? An 0.4% increase per year over 12 years compounds to roughly a 5% increase. Given the stats at http://proximityone.com/statetrendsmhi_20002012.htm http://proximityone.com/statetrendsmhi_20002012.htm , we see that only two states had an increase in median income higher than that (and one, ND, is surely due to an oil boom). What I find more sobering is that the real US median income decreased 6.6% from 2000-2012.
  - Outdoorsman 11y ago
    >What I find more sobering is that the real US median income decreased 6.6% from 2000-2012.< I think your point is very important... My take is that this can fundamentally be attributed to our (increasingly full) participation in the "global economy"... For years jobs have been out-sourced "within" countries by a process of competitive bidding...we Americans have done this for years and consider it fair...we refer to it as a level playing field... Surprise...the global economy dictates that whoever is willing to do a good job cheaply--provide the same benefit at a reduced cost--has a very realistic shot at eventually filling a position...one way or another... That's what I find sobering...regardless of your country of origin, or your particular skill set there are now many more just like you--equally qualified--who are willing to provide what you provide at a lower salary... We're part of a "great leveling"...
    - throwaway2048 11y ago
      tell that to the 0.01% making far more than ever before
      - Outdoorsman 11y ago
        That's one (of many) of the reasons they're making far more...out-sourced labor...
  - zanny 11y ago
    If salaries are not going up, that is a real measure of demand being met. If the demand for engineers of X skill were not being met, the price for those engineers would continuously rise until either they became unprofitable to have or demand was met. The reality is that tech companies just want to pay people less. Of course they do - every company wants to pay less for the same product. We have equilibrium today where tech workers equalize at a certain balance of supply and demand - if demand rose, supply would increase from more promising STEM job prospects driving more people into STEM - but demand is not rising, since wage offerings are not rising. It is important that we as a society realize that while most jobs are going away - and through that process, the supply of labor is going through the roof as more and more people fight to survive on the scraps of demand for whatever skill they have are put out into the market - engineering in all its forms remains uniquely capable of maintaining equilibrium above the poverty line. It is always a battle between the provider and the consumer. As predominantly consumers we are not used to fighting as the provider of a valuable asset. But as the provider we must fight to keep prices high to maximize our own profits - in the same way corporate interests will fight to maintain their own profit margins. They are not your friends, they want to use you as much as you use them as a means to an end - you wanted chocolate bars and coffee, and they provided at prices set by the market. They want engineering talent, and you offer yourself at a price you deem fair, and if you are hired - that was a price set by the market. Don't let anyone deceive you into manipulating the market for their purposes. They want to drive up supply to reduce their own costs - if they had real demand for talent, it would be met.
deleted 11y ago
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cbryan 11y ago
It's almost as if engineers should get together and advocate for themselves as a group.
- retbull 11y ago
  What UNION'S? Who would do that? What a crazy concept. We obviously are smarter than all of our coworkers and they will advocate for the wrong things.
  - hueving 11y ago
    Yes, unionize to sacrifice the larger population of qualified people for the gain of those lucky enough to get a union position.
    - skylan_q 11y ago
      Unions don't confer benefits to people not in their union and actually increase costs to them by putting up barriers to entry. Nations can do the exact same thing with immigration policies with respect to citizens and non-citizens. A union in this case would benefit the majority, but at the cost of people not in the union. Tighter/more strict immigration would benefit the people in the country in terms of reducing downward wage pressure, but it would remove opportunity for people abroad/non-citizens.
- logfromblammo 11y ago
  So long as you don't say the "u" word....~ A lot of specialist workers need to get together and rebuild their labor cartels. The pendulum has swung very far from center, and it needs to be pushed back a bit. As it is now, very few specialists have enough clout to arrest the current momentum, and software professionals, hardware professionals, healthcare workers, and engineers are likely the only ones that wouldn't be scoffed out of the room if they threatened a general strike. The good times should last quite a few years before the new unions become too corrupt to be worth keeping. But after that, we still might be able to keep the 6-hour workday and obligatory foos-pong tables.
mindcrime 11y ago
Part of the problem is this whole thing of use "STEM" as though it identifies a cohesive / unified group of employment positions. It's too much of a catch-all and there's room for TONS of variance within the overall "STEM" rubric. For example, you could have raging demand for software engineers at the same time you're having massive layoffs among, say, chemical engineers. So what can you say about "STEM" as a whole in that case? Very little. IOW, precision matters and we should be leery of over-generalizing.
- JoeAltmaier 11y ago
  ...except, chemical engineers never get laid off. Those folks rock, and are always in high demand.
  - GFK_of_xmaspast 11y ago
    Didn't DuPont just axe a whole bunch of them.
  - gozur88 11y ago
    I'll bet a whole lot of chemical engineers got laid off in the last year with the oil glut.
  - mindcrime 11y ago
    It was mostly just a made up example. That said, I've actually known a few people with degrees in chemical engineering who were complaining about the lack of jobs in their field recently. Maybe that's why that particular example came to mind. But still, substitute "mechanical engineering" or "civil engineering" or FSM-only-knows what and the overall point remains the same. "Engineers" or "STEM" people aren't all filling the same positions and the people aren't really fungible (at least in the short term, retraining to change fields takes time).
  - gojomo 11y ago
    Perhaps that's true in your experience, but 'STEM' also includes jobs as varied as 'actuary', 'geographer', 'dental hygienist', 'soil technician', 'physical therapist', and 'anthropologist'.
forgottenpass 11y ago
Publicized "shortage" + stagnant wages = An attempt to lower employee costs by getting more people into the labor pool.
gorkemyurt 11y ago
Does it really matter how many H1-Bs you allow every year? Look at how many big companies are opening offices in other cities especially in Vancouver or London just because of visa issues. Limiting H1-Bs is just going to force Facebooks and Googles to open up overseas dev centers. At least a high paid H1-B worker helps the American Economy in some ways.. He/She pays a ton of taxes, buys real estate and hopefully employs other Americans..
- dominotw 11y ago
  i think they are using Vancouver as staging area for eb1c green cards so that they don't have to deal with h1b visa. Thats what my friend at MS told me, not sure how common it is though.
  - cmrdporcupine 11y ago
    This may change with the Canadian dollar dropping down so low. A (very high by local standards) $150,000 CAD salary is only $100,000 USD. US employers would be wise to invest in Canadian offices. Especially near universities like University of Waterloo or University of Alberta that are some of the best engineering universities in North America.
- stale2002 11y ago
  And to be honest, if the choice is between accepting a whole bunch of highly paid Google/Facebook engineers into the country who will pay lots of money in taxes, and accepting a bunch of "economic immigrants" who will cost more money than they contribute, I would accepted the Google engineers in a heartbeat. My solution? Let anyone into the country as long as they can prove that they are receiving a salary of > 125,000$ /year. Or perhaps just create a fast lane immigration track for companies, where if they really really want someone to be let into the country, then they send the US government a $50k check, to skip everything, and get their VISA automatically approved.
  - davidw 11y ago
    > 125,000$ What makes that number better than $124,000 ?
stale2002 11y ago
He gets cause and effect wrong. The reason why enrollments are so high is BECAUSE of the shortage. An increase in demand for X causes wages for X to increase. This increase in wages causes more people to want to supply X, by joining that field. Also, the common argument of "There is no shortage for X, people just want to pay less money, than the current, extremely high price of X", is completely nonsensical. The DEFINITION of a shortage is "I believe the price is too high". Thats how supply and demand works. Example: Imagine if bread costed 100$ a loaf. Is there a shortage of food, or is it just people complaining that the price of bread is too high? How else would you even define a shortage other than "the price is too high"?
- LordKano 11y ago
  How else would you even define a shortage other than "the price is too high"? More people want to buy product or service X than there is currently available in the marketplace. So, let's say that during the next growing season, some new fungus appears and decimates the US grain crop. That will result in bread shortages. Even at $100 per loaf, there won't be as much bread available as there are people looking to buy it.
  - stale2002 11y ago
    Yes there will. Then price will just increase to 200$ a loaf. And if there are still too many people looking to buy, then 1000$ a loaf.
    - LordKano 11y ago
      And at $10,000 per loaf, the overhead to bake them would be too great and there would still be a shortage.
  - Nutmog 11y ago
    That definition doesn't work. If bread was 1 cent per loaf, I bet more people would buy it. So all those people who currently aren't buying bread because it costs a couple of dollars are people who want bread but there isn't enough available. Does that mean we always have a bread shortage? Maybe we do. But then it becomes a useless definition. If it cost $100 per loaf, there would again be people who want it but can't buy it, just as the situation already is but more of them.
briantmaurer 11y ago
Quantity and quality are not the same thing. The economy needs various quantities of engineers at various skill levels. Within the same field of study there could be a shortage of talent at one skill level and a surplus at another skill level. Based on my own experience and the experiences of my friends (people who work as engineers for AWS, Google, Apple, Facebook, SpaceX, etc.), there is a big shortage in 'high quality' engineers.
- dclowd9901 11y ago
  What would you consider a "high quality" engineer?
- CoryAmber 11y ago
  One hears that espoused quite frequently. Assuming there is "a big shortage in 'high quality' engineers" can anyone provide links to any AWS, Google, Apple, Facebook, SpaceX, position postings which typifies this big shortage? e.g. Postings which are an exemplar, of requiring 'high quality engineers' but remain open for weeks or months due to the massive STEM shortage? Based on the I-squared Act's proposed increase to a 1/4 million (250,000) H1-Bs there should be 10s and 10s of 10,000s such postings. This massive STEM shortage debate has been happening for years. The referenced article links studies, presents supporting data (aka actual statistics) and provides direct anecdotal evidence (he is involved in the production of STEM resources). Bluntly I have seen many similar fact based articles and studies on the "there is no STEM shortage" side and can't recall a single peer reviewed study on the massive shortage side. Links welcome.
  - briantmaurer 11y ago
    Your assumption is not necessarily true. A single job posting can remain active indefinitely and does not necessarily represent just one open position. This leads to the situation where an outsider sees one 'job posting' and thousands of applicants while Tech Co sees a shortage because only a few of those applicants are qualified. Also, there is an incentive mis-match between people who realize there is a shortage and people wanting to prove that a shortage exists. If as a 'high quality engineer' you realize you are a scarce resource, and that makes you a lot of $, why would you want to convince other people to acquire the skills you have – self inflicted devaluation? This is why the people with the loudest voices on this issue are CEOs and VCs who were previously high quality engineers. They have a clear view, the data, and the monetary incentive to vocalize it – more high quality engineers will increase their $.
planetjones 11y ago
That website was quite an attack on mobile safari: - intrusive overlay (tick) - prompting to use my location (tick) - huge ugly advert mixed into content (tick)
pdeuchler 11y ago
This seems like a political hit piece with no real substance. Salaries aren't going up because employers are conspiring to push down wages[0] and non executive wages in general are stagnating or going down[1]. Furthermore as already stated elsewhere in this thread, STEM degrees have huge wash out percentages so "freshmen enrolled" is just as good a statistic as "college freshman who plan on changing the world". The real problem, which has been repeated ad nauseam here, is that there's a shortage of STEM workers at the wages employers are willing to pay. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-Tech_Employee_Antitrust_Litigation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-Tech_Employee_Antitrust_L... [1] https://rwer.wordpress.com/2016/01/16/percent-change-in-u-s-real-wages-by-income-percentile-2007-2014/ https://rwer.wordpress.com/2016/01/16/percent-change-in-u-s-...
thecourier 11y ago
Do you remember that time Steve Jobs and Obama had dinner and discussed engineering immigration? http://www.businessinsider.com/when-steves-jobs-and-barack-obama-dined-2015-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/when-steves-jobs-and-barack-o... "Jobs continued to press the engineering angle at the dinner, saying that at the time Apple employed 700,000 factory workers in China, plus 30,000 engineers to support those workers." We need the best talent of the world to be a technological leader nation. nonetheless, there is a big amount of jobs that need a good engineer but not a bright mind as Wozniak. This is how globalization works and we need to keep up or be defeated by a better player at accepting STEM immigration. Let the fear aside, confront the global arena and struggle to keep being leaders of the world.
- HillaryBriss 11y ago
  It's interesting that the two options Steve Jobs mentioned were: 1. Put the factory and the jobs in China 2. Put the factory and the jobs in the US, using workers who are imported (from China/India/et al) Why doesn't Jobs mention an option to, oh, I don't know, _make a commitment to the millions of people who are already in the US_ looking for work? And, who better than Apple itself to train up some _existing_ members of the US labor pool in how to do what Apple does? To the extent that "American" corporations are shells that import manufactured goods from foreign factories and import engineers from foreign societies, I have to wonder whether I give a crap if the US is a "technological leader." Maybe if some Chinese investors bought Apple and moved the whole mess to Shenzhen, the world would finally get reasonable prices on (and customization of) Apple hardware.
  - jjtheblunt 11y ago
    The vast majority of the factory jobs are automatable, and will vanish in time, and have likely been continually vanishing. That reality would sit poorly with Americans who didn't see it coming, and certainly with those trying to use offshore manufacturing for political support, but that's been the plan all along.
  - itsthecourier 11y ago
    Try to imagine the cost of hiring all those people in the US market right know, economically infeasible. Now try to imagine the cost of recruiting, hiring, training and __retaining__ the same talent from college recent graduates, again infeasible against the Chinese economics. Finally, the Apple devices manufacturing costs are low, the margin is high because there is an ecosystem restraining access to the iOS development and such OS is very good. Here or in Shenzhen, they would charge the same.
carsongross 11y ago
The highest-voted comments are all critical of the article and/or supportive of the H1B program? Hmmm.
Nursie 11y ago
Something I've suspected for a while here in the UK too. There's no shortage of available workers, there's a shortage of companies willing to pay well.
Nutmog 11y ago
Wow - look at the arrogance here: "there are no worker protections to prevent companies from firing American workers, replacing them with H-1B’s, and even forcing them to train their replacements" Another name for "worker shortage" is "high wages". You can't fix one without fixing the other at the same time. If high priced workers are replaced with cheaper ones then all else being equal, it means the company is operating more efficiently. Isn't that a good thing? Good for the economy, good for consumers and only bad for the overpaid workers. What does he expect? That workers who demand more than the market rate should have their jobs protected so they don't feel bad about the economy changing around them? Even at the expense of everyone else?
- bsder 11y ago
  > That workers who demand more than the market rate should have their jobs protected so they don't feel bad about the economy changing around them? Even at the expense of everyone else? I demand a market rate of zero. Now do you see the problem? Everybody loves capitalism--until they're on the receiving end.
- CoryAmber 11y ago
  The referenced article presents a case that there is no STEM worker shortage and supports it with referenced statistics and studies. You may dispute his data, but he did provide it. Stating a position on the assumption that there is a serious problem with excessive or high wages, i.e. overpaid workers which requires immediate fixing is an odd leap. What workers are demanding more that the market rate? There is a market rate with a 1/4 million H1-Bs and there is a market rate without a 1/4 million H1-Bs. Any worker which demands more than the market rate will not get it. And what is the expense of everyone else referring too? It is substantially a zero sum game. Who are the else?
whack 11y ago
"87 percent of current H-1B holders are paid wages in the bottom third" I'm going to call bogus on this. The law requires H1B holders to be paid the prevailing market wage, or more, for their profession/experience level. The fact that he's referencing Trump's election platform, and doesn't offer any other evidence of this, doesn't give me any confidence whatsoever. I'd also like to issue a challenge to anyone who claims that the H1B system we currently have is bad: Please propose an alternate form of immigration system. Please also specify details regarding 1) How many immigrants should be allowed into the country every year 2) How the above number of immigrants should be selected, amongst all potential applicants.
- to3m 11y ago
  Interested readers can see for themselves what the salaries are using the H1-B data: https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm (select Disclosure Data section, download PERM spreadsheet - haven't checked the latest set but when I looked last year it was pretty easy to understand)
- whybroke 11y ago
  or certainly 3) How the opinions of non-citizens are in anyway relevant to US policy on this issue.
jmspring 11y ago
I really hate the H1B issue. It should be open to "high skilled, essential/lacking labor". We have many universities in the US that will grant an MS or similar degree without much substance for a nominal (but not negligible fee). A simple revamp to the program would be simple: - Absolutely zero visas (or very few) to any of the outsourcing / bodyshop companies - Tata, etc. - A company found bringing workers in on a Visa to be trained and then lay people off, the company should face a significant fine. - Companys have to show if there is on one side a significant downsizing and then sudden rehiring that includes H1Bs, that they didn't offer training and mentorship before laying some of the original people off. IBM and Disney come to mind. - Keep or impose caps by region. Sorry, we are a melting pot, but certain countries have significantly higher numbers trying to come in than others. The best companies and groups I worked with were diverse rather than monoculture work places. Personally, I do like the score based system that Canada and Australia generally have. EDIT/Addition: - The original mentality of cost being the overarching factor has become less en vogue. Many companies started insourcing again. That said, it's still not wholly reversed most of the outsourcing going on. I know outsourcing does not equate with H1B wholly, but there are companies that abuse the visas to hire cheaper, have locals train, and fire the locals.
- jjtheblunt 11y ago
  Caps by employment region would be "interesting" since it seems H1B is clamored for uniquely in Silicon Valley, where (as an American engineer) there are really few Americans, which contrasts entirely with other regions of the United States. It seems that is because Americans are averse to the unaffordability of SV, and recognize that unaffordability is a trap for foreigners.
  - jmspring 11y ago
    Actually that is a different but interesting take on what I meant. I meant by geographic region of the proposed Visa holder -- these are sorta in place for some, but not others. My main feeling there is that if there are a surplus of people well skilled in a particular country that feel the need to immigrate, maybe there should be a focus on doing something locally to build up a base. Regionally by US demographic could be interesting. A lot of the insourcing of things like support and call centers are going to regions of the US where costs are lower, but there is still an educational base. Though, surprisingly, some areas like Eugene/Springfield, OR are getting pretty hard hit -- though that may mostly be troubled due to Symantec's financial issues.
ap3 11y ago
As a former H1B the whole system is unfair and a scam. It is unfair to US workers: Right after I was hired at the very next downturn coworker's were let go but I stayed. I didn't know it at the time but my salary was low. It is unfair to the H1B worker - you can't switch jobs easily. If you are fired you have to leave the country, it is very stressful. You can't plan your future - why invest for retirement ? There is a path to a green card but only if employer sponsors at considerable cost. It only benefits the employers. If there is a true shortage of tech workers make the system better by allowing full mobility and allowing the workers to directly apply for green card without sponsorship. It could start by demanding employer's pay prevailing wage plus a 25k deposit/bond towards future unemployment or immigration costs of employee + family, and employee is able to switch jobs after 6 months with h1b sponsor

104 points by Futurebot 11y ago

>The truth, however, is quite different. For example, Clemson’s engineering enrollment has reached almost 5,300 students – an 80 percent increase since 2008! Enrollment numbers for engineering students are not really relevant. It is the graduation numbers. Engineering programs are notorious for "weeding out" large numbers of students. His salary statistics are scary though.

fweespeech 11y ago
Yes. In an actual labor shortage, you'd see salaries going up 5%+ due to competition for candidates. If you see something on par [or even worse, less than] inflation, there isn't a shortage of any kind.
pmiller2 11y ago
How much of those salary statistics are just reflections of general trends? An 0.4% increase per year over 12 years compounds to roughly a 5% increase. Given the stats at http://proximityone.com/statetrendsmhi_20002012.htm http://proximityone.com/statetrendsmhi_20002012.htm , we see that only two states had an increase in median income higher than that (and one, ND, is surely due to an oil boom). What I find more sobering is that the real US median income decreased 6.6% from 2000-2012.
- Outdoorsman 11y ago
  >What I find more sobering is that the real US median income decreased 6.6% from 2000-2012.< I think your point is very important... My take is that this can fundamentally be attributed to our (increasingly full) participation in the "global economy"... For years jobs have been out-sourced "within" countries by a process of competitive bidding...we Americans have done this for years and consider it fair...we refer to it as a level playing field... Surprise...the global economy dictates that whoever is willing to do a good job cheaply--provide the same benefit at a reduced cost--has a very realistic shot at eventually filling a position...one way or another... That's what I find sobering...regardless of your country of origin, or your particular skill set there are now many more just like you--equally qualified--who are willing to provide what you provide at a lower salary... We're part of a "great leveling"...
  - throwaway2048 11y ago
    tell that to the 0.01% making far more than ever before
    - Outdoorsman 11y ago
      That's one (of many) of the reasons they're making far more...out-sourced labor...
- zanny 11y ago
  If salaries are not going up, that is a real measure of demand being met. If the demand for engineers of X skill were not being met, the price for those engineers would continuously rise until either they became unprofitable to have or demand was met. The reality is that tech companies just want to pay people less. Of course they do - every company wants to pay less for the same product. We have equilibrium today where tech workers equalize at a certain balance of supply and demand - if demand rose, supply would increase from more promising STEM job prospects driving more people into STEM - but demand is not rising, since wage offerings are not rising. It is important that we as a society realize that while most jobs are going away - and through that process, the supply of labor is going through the roof as more and more people fight to survive on the scraps of demand for whatever skill they have are put out into the market - engineering in all its forms remains uniquely capable of maintaining equilibrium above the poverty line. It is always a battle between the provider and the consumer. As predominantly consumers we are not used to fighting as the provider of a valuable asset. But as the provider we must fight to keep prices high to maximize our own profits - in the same way corporate interests will fight to maintain their own profit margins. They are not your friends, they want to use you as much as you use them as a means to an end - you wanted chocolate bars and coffee, and they provided at prices set by the market. They want engineering talent, and you offer yourself at a price you deem fair, and if you are hired - that was a price set by the market. Don't let anyone deceive you into manipulating the market for their purposes. They want to drive up supply to reduce their own costs - if they had real demand for talent, it would be met.

deleted 11y ago

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cbryan 11y ago

It's almost as if engineers should get together and advocate for themselves as a group.

retbull 11y ago
What UNION'S? Who would do that? What a crazy concept. We obviously are smarter than all of our coworkers and they will advocate for the wrong things.
- hueving 11y ago
  Yes, unionize to sacrifice the larger population of qualified people for the gain of those lucky enough to get a union position.
  - skylan_q 11y ago
    Unions don't confer benefits to people not in their union and actually increase costs to them by putting up barriers to entry. Nations can do the exact same thing with immigration policies with respect to citizens and non-citizens. A union in this case would benefit the majority, but at the cost of people not in the union. Tighter/more strict immigration would benefit the people in the country in terms of reducing downward wage pressure, but it would remove opportunity for people abroad/non-citizens.
logfromblammo 11y ago
So long as you don't say the "u" word....~ A lot of specialist workers need to get together and rebuild their labor cartels. The pendulum has swung very far from center, and it needs to be pushed back a bit. As it is now, very few specialists have enough clout to arrest the current momentum, and software professionals, hardware professionals, healthcare workers, and engineers are likely the only ones that wouldn't be scoffed out of the room if they threatened a general strike. The good times should last quite a few years before the new unions become too corrupt to be worth keeping. But after that, we still might be able to keep the 6-hour workday and obligatory foos-pong tables.

mindcrime 11y ago

Part of the problem is this whole thing of use "STEM" as though it identifies a cohesive / unified group of employment positions. It's too much of a catch-all and there's room for TONS of variance within the overall "STEM" rubric. For example, you could have raging demand for software engineers at the same time you're having massive layoffs among, say, chemical engineers. So what can you say about "STEM" as a whole in that case? Very little. IOW, precision matters and we should be leery of over-generalizing.

JoeAltmaier 11y ago
...except, chemical engineers never get laid off. Those folks rock, and are always in high demand.
- GFK_of_xmaspast 11y ago
  Didn't DuPont just axe a whole bunch of them.
- gozur88 11y ago
  I'll bet a whole lot of chemical engineers got laid off in the last year with the oil glut.
- mindcrime 11y ago
  It was mostly just a made up example. That said, I've actually known a few people with degrees in chemical engineering who were complaining about the lack of jobs in their field recently. Maybe that's why that particular example came to mind. But still, substitute "mechanical engineering" or "civil engineering" or FSM-only-knows what and the overall point remains the same. "Engineers" or "STEM" people aren't all filling the same positions and the people aren't really fungible (at least in the short term, retraining to change fields takes time).
- gojomo 11y ago
  Perhaps that's true in your experience, but 'STEM' also includes jobs as varied as 'actuary', 'geographer', 'dental hygienist', 'soil technician', 'physical therapist', and 'anthropologist'.

forgottenpass 11y ago

Publicized "shortage" + stagnant wages = An attempt to lower employee costs by getting more people into the labor pool.

gorkemyurt 11y ago

Does it really matter how many H1-Bs you allow every year? Look at how many big companies are opening offices in other cities especially in Vancouver or London just because of visa issues. Limiting H1-Bs is just going to force Facebooks and Googles to open up overseas dev centers. At least a high paid H1-B worker helps the American Economy in some ways.. He/She pays a ton of taxes, buys real estate and hopefully employs other Americans..

dominotw 11y ago
i think they are using Vancouver as staging area for eb1c green cards so that they don't have to deal with h1b visa. Thats what my friend at MS told me, not sure how common it is though.
- cmrdporcupine 11y ago
  This may change with the Canadian dollar dropping down so low. A (very high by local standards) $150,000 CAD salary is only $100,000 USD. US employers would be wise to invest in Canadian offices. Especially near universities like University of Waterloo or University of Alberta that are some of the best engineering universities in North America.
stale2002 11y ago
And to be honest, if the choice is between accepting a whole bunch of highly paid Google/Facebook engineers into the country who will pay lots of money in taxes, and accepting a bunch of "economic immigrants" who will cost more money than they contribute, I would accepted the Google engineers in a heartbeat. My solution? Let anyone into the country as long as they can prove that they are receiving a salary of > 125,000$ /year. Or perhaps just create a fast lane immigration track for companies, where if they really really want someone to be let into the country, then they send the US government a $50k check, to skip everything, and get their VISA automatically approved.
- davidw 11y ago
  > 125,000$ What makes that number better than $124,000 ?

stale2002 11y ago

He gets cause and effect wrong. The reason why enrollments are so high is BECAUSE of the shortage. An increase in demand for X causes wages for X to increase. This increase in wages causes more people to want to supply X, by joining that field. Also, the common argument of "There is no shortage for X, people just want to pay less money, than the current, extremely high price of X", is completely nonsensical. The DEFINITION of a shortage is "I believe the price is too high". Thats how supply and demand works. Example: Imagine if bread costed 100$ a loaf. Is there a shortage of food, or is it just people complaining that the price of bread is too high? How else would you even define a shortage other than "the price is too high"?

LordKano 11y ago
How else would you even define a shortage other than "the price is too high"? More people want to buy product or service X than there is currently available in the marketplace. So, let's say that during the next growing season, some new fungus appears and decimates the US grain crop. That will result in bread shortages. Even at $100 per loaf, there won't be as much bread available as there are people looking to buy it.
- stale2002 11y ago
  Yes there will. Then price will just increase to 200$ a loaf. And if there are still too many people looking to buy, then 1000$ a loaf.
  - LordKano 11y ago
    And at $10,000 per loaf, the overhead to bake them would be too great and there would still be a shortage.
- Nutmog 11y ago
  That definition doesn't work. If bread was 1 cent per loaf, I bet more people would buy it. So all those people who currently aren't buying bread because it costs a couple of dollars are people who want bread but there isn't enough available. Does that mean we always have a bread shortage? Maybe we do. But then it becomes a useless definition. If it cost $100 per loaf, there would again be people who want it but can't buy it, just as the situation already is but more of them.

briantmaurer 11y ago

Quantity and quality are not the same thing. The economy needs various quantities of engineers at various skill levels. Within the same field of study there could be a shortage of talent at one skill level and a surplus at another skill level. Based on my own experience and the experiences of my friends (people who work as engineers for AWS, Google, Apple, Facebook, SpaceX, etc.), there is a big shortage in 'high quality' engineers.

dclowd9901 11y ago
What would you consider a "high quality" engineer?
CoryAmber 11y ago
One hears that espoused quite frequently. Assuming there is "a big shortage in 'high quality' engineers" can anyone provide links to any AWS, Google, Apple, Facebook, SpaceX, position postings which typifies this big shortage? e.g. Postings which are an exemplar, of requiring 'high quality engineers' but remain open for weeks or months due to the massive STEM shortage? Based on the I-squared Act's proposed increase to a 1/4 million (250,000) H1-Bs there should be 10s and 10s of 10,000s such postings. This massive STEM shortage debate has been happening for years. The referenced article links studies, presents supporting data (aka actual statistics) and provides direct anecdotal evidence (he is involved in the production of STEM resources). Bluntly I have seen many similar fact based articles and studies on the "there is no STEM shortage" side and can't recall a single peer reviewed study on the massive shortage side. Links welcome.
- briantmaurer 11y ago
  Your assumption is not necessarily true. A single job posting can remain active indefinitely and does not necessarily represent just one open position. This leads to the situation where an outsider sees one 'job posting' and thousands of applicants while Tech Co sees a shortage because only a few of those applicants are qualified. Also, there is an incentive mis-match between people who realize there is a shortage and people wanting to prove that a shortage exists. If as a 'high quality engineer' you realize you are a scarce resource, and that makes you a lot of $, why would you want to convince other people to acquire the skills you have – self inflicted devaluation? This is why the people with the loudest voices on this issue are CEOs and VCs who were previously high quality engineers. They have a clear view, the data, and the monetary incentive to vocalize it – more high quality engineers will increase their $.

planetjones 11y ago

That website was quite an attack on mobile safari: - intrusive overlay (tick) - prompting to use my location (tick) - huge ugly advert mixed into content (tick)

pdeuchler 11y ago

This seems like a political hit piece with no real substance. Salaries aren't going up because employers are conspiring to push down wages[0] and non executive wages in general are stagnating or going down[1]. Furthermore as already stated elsewhere in this thread, STEM degrees have huge wash out percentages so "freshmen enrolled" is just as good a statistic as "college freshman who plan on changing the world". The real problem, which has been repeated ad nauseam here, is that there's a shortage of STEM workers at the wages employers are willing to pay. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-Tech_Employee_Antitrust_Litigation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-Tech_Employee_Antitrust_L... [1] https://rwer.wordpress.com/2016/01/16/percent-change-in-u-s-real-wages-by-income-percentile-2007-2014/ https://rwer.wordpress.com/2016/01/16/percent-change-in-u-s-...

thecourier 11y ago

Do you remember that time Steve Jobs and Obama had dinner and discussed engineering immigration? http://www.businessinsider.com/when-steves-jobs-and-barack-obama-dined-2015-1 http://www.businessinsider.com/when-steves-jobs-and-barack-o... "Jobs continued to press the engineering angle at the dinner, saying that at the time Apple employed 700,000 factory workers in China, plus 30,000 engineers to support those workers." We need the best talent of the world to be a technological leader nation. nonetheless, there is a big amount of jobs that need a good engineer but not a bright mind as Wozniak. This is how globalization works and we need to keep up or be defeated by a better player at accepting STEM immigration. Let the fear aside, confront the global arena and struggle to keep being leaders of the world.

HillaryBriss 11y ago
It's interesting that the two options Steve Jobs mentioned were: 1. Put the factory and the jobs in China 2. Put the factory and the jobs in the US, using workers who are imported (from China/India/et al) Why doesn't Jobs mention an option to, oh, I don't know, _make a commitment to the millions of people who are already in the US_ looking for work? And, who better than Apple itself to train up some _existing_ members of the US labor pool in how to do what Apple does? To the extent that "American" corporations are shells that import manufactured goods from foreign factories and import engineers from foreign societies, I have to wonder whether I give a crap if the US is a "technological leader." Maybe if some Chinese investors bought Apple and moved the whole mess to Shenzhen, the world would finally get reasonable prices on (and customization of) Apple hardware.
- jjtheblunt 11y ago
  The vast majority of the factory jobs are automatable, and will vanish in time, and have likely been continually vanishing. That reality would sit poorly with Americans who didn't see it coming, and certainly with those trying to use offshore manufacturing for political support, but that's been the plan all along.
- itsthecourier 11y ago
  Try to imagine the cost of hiring all those people in the US market right know, economically infeasible. Now try to imagine the cost of recruiting, hiring, training and __retaining__ the same talent from college recent graduates, again infeasible against the Chinese economics. Finally, the Apple devices manufacturing costs are low, the margin is high because there is an ecosystem restraining access to the iOS development and such OS is very good. Here or in Shenzhen, they would charge the same.

carsongross 11y ago

The highest-voted comments are all critical of the article and/or supportive of the H1B program? Hmmm.

Nursie 11y ago

Something I've suspected for a while here in the UK too. There's no shortage of available workers, there's a shortage of companies willing to pay well.

Nutmog 11y ago

Wow - look at the arrogance here: "there are no worker protections to prevent companies from firing American workers, replacing them with H-1B’s, and even forcing them to train their replacements" Another name for "worker shortage" is "high wages". You can't fix one without fixing the other at the same time. If high priced workers are replaced with cheaper ones then all else being equal, it means the company is operating more efficiently. Isn't that a good thing? Good for the economy, good for consumers and only bad for the overpaid workers. What does he expect? That workers who demand more than the market rate should have their jobs protected so they don't feel bad about the economy changing around them? Even at the expense of everyone else?

bsder 11y ago
> That workers who demand more than the market rate should have their jobs protected so they don't feel bad about the economy changing around them? Even at the expense of everyone else? I demand a market rate of zero. Now do you see the problem? Everybody loves capitalism--until they're on the receiving end.
CoryAmber 11y ago
The referenced article presents a case that there is no STEM worker shortage and supports it with referenced statistics and studies. You may dispute his data, but he did provide it. Stating a position on the assumption that there is a serious problem with excessive or high wages, i.e. overpaid workers which requires immediate fixing is an odd leap. What workers are demanding more that the market rate? There is a market rate with a 1/4 million H1-Bs and there is a market rate without a 1/4 million H1-Bs. Any worker which demands more than the market rate will not get it. And what is the expense of everyone else referring too? It is substantially a zero sum game. Who are the else?

whack 11y ago

"87 percent of current H-1B holders are paid wages in the bottom third" I'm going to call bogus on this. The law requires H1B holders to be paid the prevailing market wage, or more, for their profession/experience level. The fact that he's referencing Trump's election platform, and doesn't offer any other evidence of this, doesn't give me any confidence whatsoever. I'd also like to issue a challenge to anyone who claims that the H1B system we currently have is bad: Please propose an alternate form of immigration system. Please also specify details regarding 1) How many immigrants should be allowed into the country every year 2) How the above number of immigrants should be selected, amongst all potential applicants.

to3m 11y ago
Interested readers can see for themselves what the salaries are using the H1-B data: https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm (select Disclosure Data section, download PERM spreadsheet - haven't checked the latest set but when I looked last year it was pretty easy to understand)
whybroke 11y ago
or certainly 3) How the opinions of non-citizens are in anyway relevant to US policy on this issue.

jmspring 11y ago

I really hate the H1B issue. It should be open to "high skilled, essential/lacking labor". We have many universities in the US that will grant an MS or similar degree without much substance for a nominal (but not negligible fee). A simple revamp to the program would be simple: - Absolutely zero visas (or very few) to any of the outsourcing / bodyshop companies - Tata, etc. - A company found bringing workers in on a Visa to be trained and then lay people off, the company should face a significant fine. - Companys have to show if there is on one side a significant downsizing and then sudden rehiring that includes H1Bs, that they didn't offer training and mentorship before laying some of the original people off. IBM and Disney come to mind. - Keep or impose caps by region. Sorry, we are a melting pot, but certain countries have significantly higher numbers trying to come in than others. The best companies and groups I worked with were diverse rather than monoculture work places. Personally, I do like the score based system that Canada and Australia generally have. EDIT/Addition: - The original mentality of cost being the overarching factor has become less en vogue. Many companies started insourcing again. That said, it's still not wholly reversed most of the outsourcing going on. I know outsourcing does not equate with H1B wholly, but there are companies that abuse the visas to hire cheaper, have locals train, and fire the locals.

jjtheblunt 11y ago
Caps by employment region would be "interesting" since it seems H1B is clamored for uniquely in Silicon Valley, where (as an American engineer) there are really few Americans, which contrasts entirely with other regions of the United States. It seems that is because Americans are averse to the unaffordability of SV, and recognize that unaffordability is a trap for foreigners.
- jmspring 11y ago
  Actually that is a different but interesting take on what I meant. I meant by geographic region of the proposed Visa holder -- these are sorta in place for some, but not others. My main feeling there is that if there are a surplus of people well skilled in a particular country that feel the need to immigrate, maybe there should be a focus on doing something locally to build up a base. Regionally by US demographic could be interesting. A lot of the insourcing of things like support and call centers are going to regions of the US where costs are lower, but there is still an educational base. Though, surprisingly, some areas like Eugene/Springfield, OR are getting pretty hard hit -- though that may mostly be troubled due to Symantec's financial issues.

ap3 11y ago

As a former H1B the whole system is unfair and a scam. It is unfair to US workers: Right after I was hired at the very next downturn coworker's were let go but I stayed. I didn't know it at the time but my salary was low. It is unfair to the H1B worker - you can't switch jobs easily. If you are fired you have to leave the country, it is very stressful. You can't plan your future - why invest for retirement ? There is a path to a green card but only if employer sponsors at considerable cost. It only benefits the employers. If there is a true shortage of tech workers make the system better by allowing full mobility and allowing the workers to directly apply for green card without sponsorship. It could start by demanding employer's pay prevailing wage plus a 25k deposit/bond towards future unemployment or immigration costs of employee + family, and employee is able to switch jobs after 6 months with h1b sponsor