this is essentially an options contract; if you can trade against irrationality then you will win every time; the data is clear that the difference between a co

this is essentially an options contract; if you can trade against irrationality then you will win every time; the data is clear that the difference between a couple's expectation of the success of their marriage versus statistical reality is a significant one; that is why if you can manufacture this trade you will reap the economic surplus. this is partially how las vegas and state lotteries work; despite a negative expected value people continue to gamble partially because of irrational overconfidence