4 ms·

Computer Store Manager Predicts Future (1979) [video]

21 points by howsilly 11y ago

drcode 11y ago
Uncanny how he gets everything right until the very last sentence of the interview... and the grin on his face shows he actually knew how that issue would turn out as well.
- dogma1138 11y ago
  Well the it's the late 70's the "myth" of the American 3 day work week was some what still relevant until the 80's pretty much blew it out of the water. From the late 50's trough out the 70's there was a great "hope" that automation and technology will result in shorter and shorter work weeks, that might actually could've been achievable to some degree if the US and the western world at large did not had to compete with emerging markets. In 1979's China wasn't the monster it is today, India was in worse shape than some African countries and Japan was the source of all the cheap electronic junk. Sadly enough today the companies and verticals that can actually drive the work week down mainly startups rather propagate the myth of developers that work 12+ hours a day and to make this myth a reality we get work places that serve 3-4 meals a day, have showers, gym access and sleeping rooms even. I wonder just how competitive a startup could really bee if it asked it's workers to only work 5-6 hours instead of working 4 and spending the rest playing foosball and catching up on cat videos...
  - tim333 11y ago
    Also foosball and cat videos kinda suck. If you prefer that to the main thing you're working on it may be the wrong thing.
biot 11y ago
So his prediction is that some will adapt to computers and some won't? And that computers, like other automation technologies of the past, will result in some jobs being obsolete? Not exactly bold predictions.
- Ysx 11y ago
  This is a 37 year-old video. Hindsight is a lovely thing.
- drcode 11y ago
  I interpret his prediction as saying that society will no longer be as stratified along traditional employment routes (i.e. getting that big company job with a pension) and instead will turn into a technocracy where success and riches come to those who are comfortable with new technologies.
  - dogma1138 11y ago
    >getting that big company job with a pension If we are all honest this is what pretty much anyone who's pushing 30 these days seek unless they were lucky and managed to find a good exit earlier in their life of are betting on a good inheritance. Pretty much anyone who I know at or about 30 has been switching off from cutthroat businesses and looking for long term positions that while won't offer "options" (even tho the employee share purchasing plans that big companies offer tend to be much better) and some ridiculous bonus scheme and giving up the beer fridge foosball table and huge open space for a traditional cubical with and a breakroom. Heck one of the most common questions I know people ask now when they interview is what's the age of your oldest developers and if the answer is in their mid 40's they really hope they'll get it.
  - dogma1138 11y ago
    >getting that big company job with a pension If we are all honest this is what pretty much anyone who's pushing 30 these days seek unless they were lucky and managed to find a good exit earlier in their life of are betting on a good inheritance. Pretty much anyone who I know at or about 30 has been switching off from cutthroat businesses and looking for long term positions that while won't offer "options" (even tho the employee share purchasing plans that big companies offer tend to be much better) and some ridiculous bonus scheme and giving up the beer fridge foosball table and huge open space for a traditional cubical with and a breakroom. Heck one of the most common questions I know people ask now when they interview is what's the age of your oldest developers and if the answer is in their mid 40's they really hope they'll get it.

21 points by howsilly 11y ago

Uncanny how he gets everything right until the very last sentence of the interview... and the grin on his face shows he actually knew how that issue would turn out as well.

dogma1138 11y ago
Well the it's the late 70's the "myth" of the American 3 day work week was some what still relevant until the 80's pretty much blew it out of the water. From the late 50's trough out the 70's there was a great "hope" that automation and technology will result in shorter and shorter work weeks, that might actually could've been achievable to some degree if the US and the western world at large did not had to compete with emerging markets. In 1979's China wasn't the monster it is today, India was in worse shape than some African countries and Japan was the source of all the cheap electronic junk. Sadly enough today the companies and verticals that can actually drive the work week down mainly startups rather propagate the myth of developers that work 12+ hours a day and to make this myth a reality we get work places that serve 3-4 meals a day, have showers, gym access and sleeping rooms even. I wonder just how competitive a startup could really bee if it asked it's workers to only work 5-6 hours instead of working 4 and spending the rest playing foosball and catching up on cat videos...
- tim333 11y ago
  Also foosball and cat videos kinda suck. If you prefer that to the main thing you're working on it may be the wrong thing.

biot 11y ago

So his prediction is that some will adapt to computers and some won't? And that computers, like other automation technologies of the past, will result in some jobs being obsolete? Not exactly bold predictions.

Ysx 11y ago
This is a 37 year-old video. Hindsight is a lovely thing.
drcode 11y ago
I interpret his prediction as saying that society will no longer be as stratified along traditional employment routes (i.e. getting that big company job with a pension) and instead will turn into a technocracy where success and riches come to those who are comfortable with new technologies.
- dogma1138 11y ago
  >getting that big company job with a pension If we are all honest this is what pretty much anyone who's pushing 30 these days seek unless they were lucky and managed to find a good exit earlier in their life of are betting on a good inheritance. Pretty much anyone who I know at or about 30 has been switching off from cutthroat businesses and looking for long term positions that while won't offer "options" (even tho the employee share purchasing plans that big companies offer tend to be much better) and some ridiculous bonus scheme and giving up the beer fridge foosball table and huge open space for a traditional cubical with and a breakroom. Heck one of the most common questions I know people ask now when they interview is what's the age of your oldest developers and if the answer is in their mid 40's they really hope they'll get it.
- dogma1138 11y ago
  >getting that big company job with a pension If we are all honest this is what pretty much anyone who's pushing 30 these days seek unless they were lucky and managed to find a good exit earlier in their life of are betting on a good inheritance. Pretty much anyone who I know at or about 30 has been switching off from cutthroat businesses and looking for long term positions that while won't offer "options" (even tho the employee share purchasing plans that big companies offer tend to be much better) and some ridiculous bonus scheme and giving up the beer fridge foosball table and huge open space for a traditional cubical with and a breakroom. Heck one of the most common questions I know people ask now when they interview is what's the age of your oldest developers and if the answer is in their mid 40's they really hope they'll get it.