6 ms·

Well, Germany has been allowed to act as the emperor with no clothes for a while now; an economic powerhouse sitting on empty pension chests with an ageing popu

Well, Germany has been allowed to act as the emperor with no clothes for a while now; an economic powerhouse sitting on empty pension chests with an ageing population. To compare pension fund assets: US: $46k/capita UK: $42k/capita Netherlands: $76k/capita Germany: $2.9k/capita http://www.oecd.org/finance/Pension-funds-pre-data-2015.pdf http://www.oecd.org/finance/Pension-funds-pre-data-2015.pdf

Tomte 11y ago
Germany has a PAYGO mechanism when it comes to pensions (which is incidentally the only crisis-resistant and -adaptive kind of pension system). Those "pension fund assets" can therefore only be private pension contracts on top of it.
wobbleblob 11y ago
My colleague from Greece has been giddy as a schoolboy about this story all week. Not quite the roaring, thunderous fits of laughter as with the Volkswagen scandal, but this is still developing.
- Kristine1975 11y ago
  I'm from Germany and the troubles of the Deutsche Bank please me to no end. The only thing I'm scared of is that it will be declared "too big to fail" and bailed out with tax money, while at the same time there's no money for schools, police, refugees etc because Wolfgang Schäuble is obsessed with his "black zero".
  - wobbleblob 11y ago
    Maybe he can propose to sell some of the German islands to cover the bailout.
    - kuschku 11y ago
      And then let Greece pay for the bailout! Good idea. We get rid of Sylt, and Greece has to pay.
      - imarg 11y ago
        Actually Greece has in a way already paid for a bailout of DB (+ other German & French banks). Just before the (famous?) PSI[1], the Greek state (through retirement funds, universities & other public and semi-public institutions) bought off a lot of (Greek) government bonds from these banks. Then the haircut happened. So instead for these banks to suffer the losses, they were moved to the taxpayer. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_sector_involvement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_sector_involvement
  - kuschku 11y ago
    > while at the same time there's no money for schools, police, refugees etc because Wolfgang Schäuble is obsessed with his "black zero". Schleswig-Holstein just decided to drop any plans for the black zero, and doubled the funding for new police recruits. Additionally, we decided to also build more schools. And fix the infrastructure.
  - chvid 11y ago
    This is similar to saying I hope the nuclear plant blows up but I would really hate it if the government needs to clean it up. In a way it is already too late. The scandal is that DB has been allowed to grow this big.
  - TheLogothete 11y ago
    If there is a too big to fail chart, DB will be at the very top of it.
  - patrickk 11y ago
    As an Irish person living in Germany (partially as a result of an extremely ill-advised bank bailout), it's quite amusing to watch. I've watched this exact scenario happen in my own country, except with retail "pillar" banks instead of investment banks. I compare bankers to the monarchy of old, they are completely unelected and hold a huge amount of power. You can be sure that if the shit really hits the fan, Deutsche will be bailed out, no matter the cost. I would bet anything on this happening.
    - Kristine1975 11y ago
      Deutsche will be bailed out, no matter the cost. I would bet anything on this happening. The bank always wins :-(
- Sidon 11y ago
  Maybe your colleague from Greece should realize that when DB 'falls' tons of people will take the fall for it, regular people like you and me, people who are just trying to make a living, like all those poor fucks in Greece. The group of people taking the fall for it won't be limited to Germany, you can be sure Greeks will feel it as well. Tell him to just stfu and get back to work.
  - wobbleblob 11y ago
    Put yourself in their shoes for a moment. For the past 8 years, day in day out you have to hear jokes about how dishonest and unreliable Greeks are, that they caused these problems for us with their cheating, how they should be strictly honest and reliable like Germans, how they shouldn't spend money they don't have and get their finances in order like Germans, and then the Volkswagen scandal happened, and now this. You know, it doesn't involve me at all, but I can imagine why he finds this amusing.
    - Kristine1975 11y ago
      The anti-Greek propaganda in German mainstream media was disgusting.
      - pofjer 11y ago
        ... and all sane people in Germany condemned them for that. BTW nobody spoke on the issues of other EU members, like e.g. Greece's northern neighbours Bulgaria and Romania where people live with less than the Greeks during the worst times of their crisis. And all this just because someone somewhere gave carte blanche to the Soviet Union to install pro-communist forces in countries of strategic interest to them where there was almost non-existant communist movement compared to Greece where the UK allegedly intervened so that this won't happen. Just for perspective: people lived comparably good/bad in all three countries before WW2. As a German, you should know how economically devastated was the DDR after 1989. And bear in mind that it was the best player in the Eastern league of non-representativeness and corruption. (comparisons with the West are another topic altogether)
      - 11y ago
1ris 11y ago
Germany does not have such a thing as a pension chest. Pensions are directly paid by the working generation. That has it's problems, but it does also have it's benefits and makes this comparison useless.
- junto 11y ago
  > Germany does not have such a thing as a pension chest. Pensions are directly paid by the working generation. That's only the statutory part though. You are advised to contribute to an occupational and/or private arrangement alongside the statutory scheme. They operate differently. The underlying problem Germany has is the population dynamics. The population is an ageing one. Lots of people are living longer and not enough children are being born to cover the gap. It might be politically unpopular, but importing refugees and successfully converting them to integrated German tax payers, might well be a long term goal of the state in order to stave off the pensions crisis.
  - vetinari 11y ago
    The economic migrants are not going to work and be a tax payers. Even if they wanted to work, there's no work for their qualification. They are going to drain the social support budget and increase the inner pressure in the society.
    - morsch 11y ago
      In the past, 10% of regugees were employed after a year, 50% after 5 years, 70% after 15 years[0]. So it takes a while, unsurprisingly, but your predicitions are not borne out in reality. Of course extrapolating from past experience is just an approximation, so it might take longer; on the other hand there are probably ways to speed up the process. [0] Figures released by a research institute of the federal government. http://doku.iab.de/aktuell/2015/aktueller_bericht_1514.pdf http://doku.iab.de/aktuell/2015/aktueller_bericht_1514.pdf
      - eronhp 11y ago
dangerpowpow 11y ago
That is because pension is handled differently in germany?

Tomte 11y ago

Germany has a PAYGO mechanism when it comes to pensions (which is incidentally the only crisis-resistant and -adaptive kind of pension system). Those "pension fund assets" can therefore only be private pension contracts on top of it.

wobbleblob 11y ago

My colleague from Greece has been giddy as a schoolboy about this story all week. Not quite the roaring, thunderous fits of laughter as with the Volkswagen scandal, but this is still developing.

Kristine1975 11y ago
I'm from Germany and the troubles of the Deutsche Bank please me to no end. The only thing I'm scared of is that it will be declared "too big to fail" and bailed out with tax money, while at the same time there's no money for schools, police, refugees etc because Wolfgang Schäuble is obsessed with his "black zero".
- wobbleblob 11y ago
  Maybe he can propose to sell some of the German islands to cover the bailout.
  - kuschku 11y ago
    And then let Greece pay for the bailout! Good idea. We get rid of Sylt, and Greece has to pay.
    - imarg 11y ago
      Actually Greece has in a way already paid for a bailout of DB (+ other German & French banks). Just before the (famous?) PSI[1], the Greek state (through retirement funds, universities & other public and semi-public institutions) bought off a lot of (Greek) government bonds from these banks. Then the haircut happened. So instead for these banks to suffer the losses, they were moved to the taxpayer. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_sector_involvement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Private_sector_involvement
- kuschku 11y ago
  > while at the same time there's no money for schools, police, refugees etc because Wolfgang Schäuble is obsessed with his "black zero". Schleswig-Holstein just decided to drop any plans for the black zero, and doubled the funding for new police recruits. Additionally, we decided to also build more schools. And fix the infrastructure.
- chvid 11y ago
  This is similar to saying I hope the nuclear plant blows up but I would really hate it if the government needs to clean it up. In a way it is already too late. The scandal is that DB has been allowed to grow this big.
- TheLogothete 11y ago
  If there is a too big to fail chart, DB will be at the very top of it.
- patrickk 11y ago
  As an Irish person living in Germany (partially as a result of an extremely ill-advised bank bailout), it's quite amusing to watch. I've watched this exact scenario happen in my own country, except with retail "pillar" banks instead of investment banks. I compare bankers to the monarchy of old, they are completely unelected and hold a huge amount of power. You can be sure that if the shit really hits the fan, Deutsche will be bailed out, no matter the cost. I would bet anything on this happening.
  - Kristine1975 11y ago
    Deutsche will be bailed out, no matter the cost. I would bet anything on this happening. The bank always wins :-(
Sidon 11y ago
Maybe your colleague from Greece should realize that when DB 'falls' tons of people will take the fall for it, regular people like you and me, people who are just trying to make a living, like all those poor fucks in Greece. The group of people taking the fall for it won't be limited to Germany, you can be sure Greeks will feel it as well. Tell him to just stfu and get back to work.
- wobbleblob 11y ago
  Put yourself in their shoes for a moment. For the past 8 years, day in day out you have to hear jokes about how dishonest and unreliable Greeks are, that they caused these problems for us with their cheating, how they should be strictly honest and reliable like Germans, how they shouldn't spend money they don't have and get their finances in order like Germans, and then the Volkswagen scandal happened, and now this. You know, it doesn't involve me at all, but I can imagine why he finds this amusing.
  - Kristine1975 11y ago
    The anti-Greek propaganda in German mainstream media was disgusting.
    - pofjer 11y ago
      ... and all sane people in Germany condemned them for that. BTW nobody spoke on the issues of other EU members, like e.g. Greece's northern neighbours Bulgaria and Romania where people live with less than the Greeks during the worst times of their crisis. And all this just because someone somewhere gave carte blanche to the Soviet Union to install pro-communist forces in countries of strategic interest to them where there was almost non-existant communist movement compared to Greece where the UK allegedly intervened so that this won't happen. Just for perspective: people lived comparably good/bad in all three countries before WW2. As a German, you should know how economically devastated was the DDR after 1989. And bear in mind that it was the best player in the Eastern league of non-representativeness and corruption. (comparisons with the West are another topic altogether)
    - 11y ago

1ris 11y ago

Germany does not have such a thing as a pension chest. Pensions are directly paid by the working generation. That has it's problems, but it does also have it's benefits and makes this comparison useless.

junto 11y ago
> Germany does not have such a thing as a pension chest. Pensions are directly paid by the working generation. That's only the statutory part though. You are advised to contribute to an occupational and/or private arrangement alongside the statutory scheme. They operate differently. The underlying problem Germany has is the population dynamics. The population is an ageing one. Lots of people are living longer and not enough children are being born to cover the gap. It might be politically unpopular, but importing refugees and successfully converting them to integrated German tax payers, might well be a long term goal of the state in order to stave off the pensions crisis.
- vetinari 11y ago
  The economic migrants are not going to work and be a tax payers. Even if they wanted to work, there's no work for their qualification. They are going to drain the social support budget and increase the inner pressure in the society.
  - morsch 11y ago
    In the past, 10% of regugees were employed after a year, 50% after 5 years, 70% after 15 years[0]. So it takes a while, unsurprisingly, but your predicitions are not borne out in reality. Of course extrapolating from past experience is just an approximation, so it might take longer; on the other hand there are probably ways to speed up the process. [0] Figures released by a research institute of the federal government. http://doku.iab.de/aktuell/2015/aktueller_bericht_1514.pdf http://doku.iab.de/aktuell/2015/aktueller_bericht_1514.pdf
    - eronhp 11y ago

dangerpowpow 11y ago

That is because pension is handled differently in germany?