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I run the site listed below on the Permanent Portfolio approach and saw all the hits coming in from this page. First let me say that if you want 4-5% a year you
by crawlingroad 17y ago
I run the site listed below on the Permanent Portfolio approach and saw all the hits coming in from this page. First let me say that if you want 4-5% a year you need to earn probably 8-9% a year. That's because you'll lose 4% or so just to inflation and taxes.
Next, with that much money you will have many people that may want to take it from you. So go out and get an umbrella insurance policy that covers your net worth to protect against ambulance chasers.
Also, you're going to have relatives and long lost friends coming and asking your for money for all sorts of things. I suggest you harden your heart and learn to tell them "NO" right now before you get burned. If you want to give them money, then make it a gift and not a "loan." Those types of loans are never repaid and if you are expecting them to be re-paid and they aren't it will ruin your relationship.
Now for actual investing advice.
First, you don't want to do anything stupid and lose that money. So be VERY conservative in your investment decisions. You do not need to risk 10-15% a year returns because you already are in the top 1% of net worth in the country at this point.
Second, most financial advisors do not have your best interests at heart. They will sell you expensive products that generate fees for them and probably underperform the market. So your best choice if you want exposure to stocks is to just buy a low cost index fund and not get into the stock market trading game.
Third, you will want bonds to work as fixed income and I'd only buy Treasury bonds as they have no credit or call risk. You don't save enough in taxes usually to make the risks of munis worth the price of admission. IMO. During the credit crisis in 2008 Munis went DOWN in value, but Treasury Bonds were up almost 30%. That tax savings people thought they had went out the window when the market panicked.
Fourth, you should have some hard assets for inflation shock insurance in your portfolio. Gold works best. IMO. It doesn't produce interest or dividends, but it can go up like a rocket when stocks and bonds are suffering.
Finally, you should keep a slug of cash sitting around to help you ride out market storms and support yourself so you don't have to sell assets out of desperation when they are down in price.
So I do think the Permanent Portfolio allocation would be a good choice. It gives you growth with an average CAGR of 9-10% the past 40 years. It gives you protection with the worst loss being in 1981 when it lost about -4-6%. It gives you stability because it won't have crazy swings in value. Lastly, it gives you control over your finances so you don't need to use a money manager and pay exorbitant fees.
For now, you may want to park that money in a very safe Treasury Money Market fund while you make your decision. They pay almost no interest, but it's better than jumping into something and losing your shirt. Don't let the financial advisors you're going to meet pressure you into expensive and dumb investment products. And, BTW, that's mostly what they're going to offer you.
If this sounds like too much to handle, then just go to www.vanguard.com and contact their money managers. They charge a small fee each year but will not do anything dumb with your money and their index funds are well run and cheap.
- crawlingroad 17y agoBTW. In case I wasn't clear the site I run focuses on on passive investing strategies relating to the Permanent Portfolio asset allocation. You can read more about it here: http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2010/02/06/permanent-portfolio-back-to-basics/ http://crawlingroad.com/blog/2010/02/06/permanent-portfolio-...
- kingkongreveng_ 17y ago> Treasury bonds as they have no credit or call risk Arguably not 100% true anymore. Some people are buying insurance on treasuries these days.
- crawlingroad 17y agoThe US Govt. can always print money to pay off creditors. Yes, this would be highly inflationary. But, it means the bonds can always be paid. More likely, they will simply raise taxes to cover the debt load. But compared to other bonds, the US Treasuries are probably the safest. Even the Euro bonds are less safe. IMO. They are having big problems that will only get worse. However if this all goes to hell, then you have an allocation to gold to cover the inflation fallout from the mess. But in 2008 everyone thought inflation was coming when gas was $4 a gallon and climbing. But by the end of the year we had a deflation situation and Treasury bonds went up 30%. Nobody saw that one coming which is why portfolios should hold a wide variety of assets at all times and not try to use market timing.
- rphlx 17y ago> More likely, they will simply raise taxes to cover the debt load. Historically unlikely. Democracies favor inflation, at the expense of mostly foreign creditors, over higher taxes, at the expense of the average voter.
- _delirium 17y agoThe U.S. is in an unusual position, though, in that more than half its government bonds are held domestically, so screwing the bondholders is politically much harder. I agree that inflating out of a debt is probably still relatively likely, though, since as long as it isn't done in a precipitous fashion (i.e. Italy-style overnight devaluation), the small domestic bondholders aren't likely to revolt. An actual default seems unlikely though, given how many Americans own treasury bonds.